Texas Fall-2015

[Portastorm]

No, I am not being Storm2K Grumpy Cat when I write: c'mon guys ... when is the last time you saw a landfalling E-Pac tropical system overrun an Arctic airmass?! I've been following Texas weather since 1984 and have never seen it. Never.

I'm not saying it's impossible but I am saying it is highly, highly unlikely.

If an Arctic airmass is that strong and cold for this time of year it is likely to blow through the state and set up a baroclinic zone/line well to our south which is where the moisture feed would go. If you want snow and ice it seemingly would be a better pattern to have a messy line of shallow Arctic air hung up over the state somewhere with a strong upper level low approaching from the west ... a ULL which would entrain some of that tropical moisture.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GEM looking more like the GFS this run.

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center as increased chances for Tropical Cyclone Development next week S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to a High Chance. This could get real interesting folks. Stay Tuned next week. People will be wrapped up in Thanksgiving activities and likely not paying attention to weather that much. As Jeff and Portastorm alluded to, I cannot recall in my 45+ years of closely following Texas weather to see a potential land falling tropical cyclone along the West Coast of Mexico after a strong Arctic Front has pushed to the Coast of Texas.

[Ntxw]

No, I am not being Storm2K Grumpy Cat when I write: c'mon guys ... when is the last time you saw a landfalling E-Pac tropical system overrun an Arctic airmass?! I've been following Texas weather since 1984 and have never seen it. Never.

I'm not saying it's impossible but I am saying it is highly, highly unlikely.

If an Arctic airmass is that strong and cold for this time of year it is likely to blow through the state and set up a baroclinic zone/line well to our south which is where the moisture feed would go. If you want snow and ice it seemingly would be a better pattern to have a messy line of shallow Arctic air hung up over the state somewhere with a strong upper level low approaching from the west ... a ULL which would entrain some of that tropical moisture.

It wouldn't be tropical here but it could boost the already boisterous STJ. Northern fringe of the rain shield would be where the problem is. Warm side would see very significant flooding.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has a strong 977mb Hurricane approaching the West Coast of Mexico early next Friday as the Arctic Front and a wound up Western Upper low/trough organizes in the Great Basin.

[TheProfessor]

The 12Z Euro has a strong 977mb Hurricane approaching the West Coast of Mexico early next Friday as the Arctic Front and a wound up Western Upper low/trough organizes in the Great Basin.

This does not please me.

[JayDT]

Exciting times ahead apparently.. All this model watching has made me remember how much i really love Winter, apart from all the holidays. Winter weather is very exciting to me. I guess since we don't get it too much here.

[wxman57]

No, I am not being Storm2K Grumpy Cat...

Yeah, that's my job! However, development of the East Pac hurricane does look likely, and its moisture will most likely impact Texas next week. Could be an interesting event.

[Brent]

Must be a winter storm brewing... wxman57 is here.

[Tireman4]

No, I am not being Storm2K Grumpy Cat...

Yeah, that's my job! However, development of the East Pac hurricane does look likely, and its moisture will most likely impact Texas next week. Could be an interesting event.

In my over 40 years of following...I have never ever seen a landfalling hurricane and remanants override an arctic front...I thought it could be done in theory...but to have it happen....what is this The Day After Tomorrow...this will be ...interesting

[TheProfessor]

I like that movie, lets just hope DFW doesn't end up like New York.

[Ralph's Weather]

In my over 40 years of following...I have never ever seen a landfalling hurricane and remanants override an arctic front...I thought it could be done in theory...but to have it happen....what is this The Day After Tomorrow...this will be ...interesting

You got that right, hard to say what the result of the interaction would be. In theory we could see heavy precip falling through a shallow Arctic air mass over a large area. Then we would likely see a low form off of the coast which would consolidate the precip a bit and also pull in deeper cold air so maybe some snow before the precip moves out. That is just my uneducated theory though.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: I like that movie, lets just hope DFW doesn't end up like New York.

Beijing is seeing their biggest snow in years while Texas is on a roller coaster of flooding and droughts so maybe there is something to that movie, . Or maybe not. Should be a fun couple weeks of wild weather coming up.

[TarrantWx]

You got that right, hard to say what the result of the interaction would be. In theory we could see heavy precip falling through a shallow Arctic air mass over a large area. Then we would likely see a low form off of the coast which would consolidate the precip a bit and also pull in deeper cold air so maybe some snow before the precip moves out. That is just my uneducated theory though.

One thing to keep in mind that we've seen in the past is heavy precip falling into a very shallow arctic air mass can drag down warmer air aloft and lessen impacts. Of course that all depends on the strength and depth of the arctic air mass.

[gboudx]

You got that right, hard to say what the result of the interaction would be. In theory we could see heavy precip falling through a shallow Arctic air mass over a large area. Then we would likely see a low form off of the coast which would consolidate the precip a bit and also pull in deeper cold air so maybe some snow before the precip moves out. That is just my uneducated theory though.

One thing to keep in mind that we've seen in the past is heavy precip falling into a very shallow arctic air mass can drag down warmer air aloft and lessen impacts. Of course that all depends on the strength and depth of the arctic air mass.

This is what I was thinking as well. Plus the tropical system pumping heat into the mid and upper levels seems like it would make it warmer than it would otherwise be at those levels. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out because I can't wrap my head around a remnant tropical system interacting with an arctic airmass. It is almost Hollywood-esque.

[Ralph's Weather]

You got that right, hard to say what the result of the interaction would be. In theory we could see heavy precip falling through a shallow Arctic air mass over a large area. Then we would likely see a low form off of the coast which would consolidate the precip a bit and also pull in deeper cold air so maybe some snow before the precip moves out. That is just my uneducated theory though.

One thing to keep in mind that we've seen in the past is heavy precip falling into a very shallow arctic air mass can drag down warmer air aloft and lessen impacts. Of course that all depends on the strength and depth of the arctic air mass.

True that is what always gets us in E TX and why I have my doubts about significant icing here from this setup. Looks like a 34 degrees constantly for a couple days with continuous rain and maybe some snow on the northern edge of the surface low. As shown by the models the biggest icing threat appears to be from SW to western N TX.

[weatherdude1108]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-212045-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
242 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...FIRST FALL FREEZE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNINGS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND THE FIRST BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH
WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ARRIVES OVER TEXAS...COLD AIR...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAXIMUM COOLING OF THE AIR NEAR THE
GROUND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY LAST
MARCH.

BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A FREEZE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

MOST OF BEXAR COUNTY AND SAN ANTONIO SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...
BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF 1604...BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND
BANDERA ROAD...MAY SEE PATCHY FREEZING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS SUCH AS ALONG CREEKS.

NEARLY ALL OF TRAVIS COUNTY AND AUSTIN WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE
ON MONDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS IN THE URBAN CORE
BETWEEN MOPAC AND INTERSTATE 35.

ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 30-31 ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND THE PLAINS EAST OF
AUSTIN. SENSITIVE PLANTS AND PETS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS. WATER
PIPES SHOULD NOT BURST SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING...AND ONLY FOR 4-6 HOURS EACH NIGHT.

[Ntxw]

Its certainly meteorologically possible. The extreme El Nino with the extreme EPO. We've seen a lot of out of the norm weather this year. Epac is still active because PDO+ record Nino 3.4 temps.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Strong Canadian cold front heading for SE TX.

Possible first freeze of the season Monday morning

Extremely active Thanksgiving period with both a possible arctic cold front and landfalling MX hurricane.

Amplified upper air pattern allowing a strong cold front to surge down the plains. Front will arrive in NW TX this evening and roar off the upper TX coast midday Saturday…and it will roar! There will be no mistake with this front passes your location as the increasingly warm and humid air mass with temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s will fall into the 50’s within the first 15 minutes of frontal passage and then into the 40’s. Very strong north winds will howl behind the front as an impressive 1035mb surface high builds down the plains into OK. Expect sustained winds of 25-35mph with gusts of 40-45mph…higher along the coast and offshore. Air mass has moistened today and local radars show a large mass of showers over the coastal bend starting to advance NNE toward the region. Lift will greatly increase overnight along with some elevated instability, so would not be surprised if we see some thunderstorms in bands ahead and along the front.

Skies clear rapidly Saturday afternoon, but winds will stay elevated Saturday night and this should save most of the area from a freeze. The area does not look as lucky on Monday morning as clear skies, dry air mass and calm winds will likely result in near/sub freezing conditions especially north of HWY 105 and in the normally colder locations. Latest GFS guidance does take BUSH IAH down to 33-32 on Monday morning which would mean a light freeze for those outside the Beltway. Still some time to watch…but it is becoming likely a freeze watch will be required by Sunday afternoon and since this is the first likely freeze on the season and end to the growing season certain precautions will need to be made for any tender vegetation.

Monday will be the last clear and cool day…before the onset of a cloudy and rainy periods for much of next week.

Area of disturbed weather over central America will move westward south of MX and likely develop into a tropical cyclone next week. A deep longwave trough begins to develop over the W US while decently strong ridging develops in Alaska. The GFS brings a 995mb hurricane toward western MX around Thanksgiving Day while the ECMWF is much stronger at 977mb. Both of these solutions are rare for this time of year…but the waters off the west coast of MX remain very warm given the warm phase ENSO in progress. Deep ridging over Alaska will likely dislodge a large mass of dense arctic air which heads southward toward Montana around Thanksgiving Day. Longwave trough to the west captures the EPAC hurricane and also likely unleashes the arctic air southward rapidly down the plains and into TX right after Thanksgiving. Rain looks likely both ahead of the front and behind the front. Frontal timing is still uncertain and not likely until after Thanksgiving so it will be warm and muggy on both Wednesday and Thursday with ahead of the boundary. Rain chances will likely need to be raised along with rainfall amounts once it is determine how exactly the tropical system will affect the region.

[weatherdude1108]

They expanded the wind advisory south. No surprise there with the isobaric differential. Hold on to your hats! And your cars!

Wind Advisory
________________________________________
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ALONG A JUNO TO HARPER TO LLANO LINE
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS AROUND NOON. NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET ON SATURDAY.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-211000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0004.151121T1200Z-151121T2300Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
318 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST
SATURDAY.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IN
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA. BE ALERT TO SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH
MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. EXTRA ATTENTION
SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.