Texas Winter 2015-2016

[gboudx]

Early 2007 was a fun winter, I remember one storm had big fluffy flakes and dropped close to 6 inches at my house. I believe either in late 2006 or early 2007 we had a front undercut a storm and we went from a tornado warning to sleet within a few minutes.

That was the densest cold air mass I've experienced. I drove through that front twice. I know this because it was warm and as soon as I drove into the front, the windows in my car immediately fogged up and the temp plummeted. Later I drove back into the warmer air, and then being stuck in traffic the front overtook me again, windows fogged up again. By the time I got home temps were near freezing.

[Portastorm]

Man is the GFS ever struggling with this pattern. For example, the 0z overnight run had temps Christmas morning in Austin in the 60s. The recently issued 12z run has them 30 degrees colder!

As wxman57 said the other day, I wouldn't trust the models much beyond 3-4 days at this point.

[wxman57]

Man is the GFS ever struggling with this pattern. For example, the 0z overnight run had temps Christmas morning in Austin in the 60s. The recently issued 12z run has them 30 degrees colder!

As wxman57 said the other day, I wouldn't trust the models much beyond 3-4 days at this point.

...unless they're forecasting warmth.

[gatorcane]

Man is the GFS ever struggling with this pattern. For example, the 0z overnight run had temps Christmas morning in Austin in the 60s. The recently issued 12z run has them 30 degrees colder!

As wxman57 said the other day, I wouldn't trust the models much beyond 3-4 days at this point.

Oh but it is so enticing to look way beyond that, for example, look what the 12Z GFS is coming in with in the long-range:

[1900hurricane]

>100" pixels are starting to show up in Liberty and Chambers Counties for their yearly total rainfall.

Link

[hriverajr]

Man is the GFS ever struggling with this pattern. For example, the 0z overnight run had temps Christmas morning in Austin in the 60s. The recently issued 12z run has them 30 degrees colder!

As wxman57 said the other day, I wouldn't trust the models much beyond 3-4 days at this point.

Oh but it is so enticing to look way beyond that, for example, look what the 12Z GFS is coming in with in the long-range:

http://i.imgur.com/UXCh14w.png

I still see absolutely nothing really exciting for most of Texas.

[wxman57]

Yeah, the 12Z GFS still has snow in Dallas (and nearly to Houston) at around 14 days out, just like it has about every run for the past month. I believe it now, though.

[Ralph's Weather]

>100" pixels are starting to show up in Liberty and Chambers Counties for their yearly total rainfall.

Link

That has me at over 70" with a few 80" pixels nearby. The 40" pixels out west are very impressive. By my eye more of the state is at 200% then below 100%.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, the 12Z GFS still has snow in Dallas (and nearly to Houston) at around 14 days out, just like it has about every run for the past month. I believe it now, though.

Your little interjections crack me up wxman57, in a good way!

Silly models.

[dhweather]

Yeah, the 12Z GFS still has snow in Dallas (and nearly to Houston) at around 14 days out, just like it has about every run for the past month. I believe it now, though.

perpetual "two weeks away" ........

[Tireman4]

Yeah, the 12Z GFS still has snow in Dallas (and nearly to Houston) at around 14 days out, just like it has about every run for the past month. I believe it now, though.

Oh sir...lol

[wxman57]

Temps in the mid-70s across Houston now with lots of sunshine. The heck with the fall thread, maybe we should move back to the summer thread?

Unfortunately, I'll be paying for this great December weather come January through April, most likely. I still think we'll have several ice events across southeast Texas this winter - but not this month.

[BigB0882]

wxman57, do you think Baton Rouge will get in on the cold weather and possible ice/snow at some point or will we be too far East and have a pesky ridge keeping us in the warm part of the country?

[Tireman4]

Temps in the mid-70s across Houston now with lots of sunshine. The heck with the fall thread, maybe we should move back to the summer thread?

Unfortunately, I'll be paying for this great December weather come January through April, most likely. I still think we'll have several ice events across southeast Texas this winter - but not this month.

Gee whiz it is warm out there...ugh...and here I am stuck at home..allergies killing me..three chapters of my dissertation to revise and oh yeah...cannot run until Saturday...this
month is killing me

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any chance for a few flurries near the Red River Thursday evening/night?

[wxman57]

Any chance for a few flurries near the Red River Thursday evening/night?

Not really. Too dry below 8000 ft. Some mid-level clouds above that.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any chance for a few flurries near the Red River Thursday evening/night?

Not really. Too dry below 8000 ft. Some mid-level clouds above that.

Thank you. It just appears the latest guidance has been indicating more and more mid-level moisture available for this little shortwave, so I wanted to see what everyone else thought

[dhweather]

Temps in the mid-70s across Houston now with lots of sunshine. The heck with the fall thread, maybe we should move back to the summer thread?

Unfortunately, I'll be paying for this great December weather come January through April, most likely. I still think we'll have several ice events across southeast Texas this winter - but not this month.

Are you serious Clark ?

[dhweather]

Interesting El Nino blog read here, written four months ago:

http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/c ... groupid=37

The author calls this El Nino a hybrid. Excerpt:

So what is a Hybrid El Nino? It's an El Nino that starts like an analog year El Nino and ends as a different El Nino due to it getting stronger or weaker. This winter starts of like the mega 1982-1983 and end like 2009-2010 at this point. This means places in the East and Southeast get blasted later in the winter and may start off mild and even wet not white. The Southwest will stay wet most of the winter with some breaks by February. As far as the Midwest and Ohio Valley well you start off moisture starved but end up getting a bit snowy and colder come February, The West Coast gets blasted with rain in November and December but the rain drops off a bit by February.

[Snowman67]

Temps in the mid-70s across Houston now with lots of sunshine. The heck with the fall thread, maybe we should move back to the summer thread?

Unfortunately, I'll be paying for this great December weather come January through April, most likely. I still think we'll have several ice events across southeast Texas this winter - but not this month.

Wxman 57 - Can you share your thoughts on why you think we will have several ice events in SE Texas later this winter? Thanks!