Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SFC HIGH WILL OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PROMOTE DRIER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS FORMING BY MID DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN PR. PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE WATERS BUT
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND A FEW
OF THEM COULD STILL REACH SECTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS AS FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PROMOTES A
CAP INVERSION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...A WEAK TROF
MOVES OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK...IT WONT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR ON
LOCAL WX CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL GIVE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
COAST OF PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS BEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED BELOW
850 MB...RESULTING IN TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
SHALLOW LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS EACH DAY...IF ANY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SHRA VCNTY TJMZ BTWN 21/18Z AND 21/22Z. -SHRA MOVG THRU THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL APCH USVI AFT 21/21Z AND PR TERMINALS AFT
22/03Z WILL CREATE PERIODS OF VCSH THRU 22/14Z. SFC WINDS
INCREASING AFTER 22/11Z FROM THE EAST AT UP TO 15-20 KTS...LIGHTER
AT TJPS AND TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 9 FEET. NORTHEAST
SWELL 4 TO 7 FEET SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE.
EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 86 / 40 40 20 20
STT 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH TROFINESS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 10 MPH OR LESS...AND THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

ALTHOUGH TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK...MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HOLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CAP INVERSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHRA CAUSING VCSH AND VERY BRIEF SHRA AT THE STATIONS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 22/13Z...INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 15-20KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH...WINDS AND RH VALUES MAY REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS LATER TODAY...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DUE TO
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE AND FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 10 FEET
EXPECTED. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF LOCAL WATERS. SWELL ACTION WILL REACH THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 40 20 20 50
STT 87 76 87 76 / 30 20 20 50

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PROMOTE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UPPER
TROF BETWEEN CUBA AND HAITI WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLODY SKIES WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE WATERS AND AS WINDS
INCREASED TODAY THEY MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
PR...WITH MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS JUST ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OVER EL YUNQUE AREA. FOR THIS EVENING...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND WITH A FEW REACHING SECTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE PROMOTES A CAP INVERSION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH...A WEAK TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA BY WED/THU...IT WONT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR ON LOCAL WX CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT/MORNING
HOURS RESULTING IN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI. RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE DAY TIME...WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. SITES IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND -
SHRA. A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHRA WILL BE SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS IN PR AND THE USVI. TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN USUAL
AND WILL INCREASE IN PR AND THE USVI WEDNESDAY. LLVL WINDS ARE ELY
10 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 UP THRU FL160.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE SEAS ACROSS BOTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 11 FEET...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS
MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET. THIS IS DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 20 20 50 50
STT 76 87 76 86 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
612 AM AST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH TROFINESS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 15 MPH OR LESS...AND THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

ALTHOUGH TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE PATTERN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. BRIEF
SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...CAUSING AT LEAST
VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED AT 15-25 KTS EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PR. HAZARDOUS WIND GENERATED SEA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE
FAIRLY TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRAD
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 50 60 70 50
STT 86 76 86 76 / 50 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL HANG
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A NEW IMPULSE FROM THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE NEXT RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL DELAY UNTIL NEXT YEAR.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DECAY
AFTER FRIDAY AND MOVE TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL ALSO DECAY IN PLACE LEAVING LITTLE GRADIENT OR WIND. EXCEPT
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND LATE NEXT WEEK...MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FUELING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH AND
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT YEAR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF CUBA
AND HAITI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM
CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS...AND VIEQUES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO LEAVING SLIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS ALSO FORMED DOWNSTREAM WEST OF SAINT CROIX
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBS FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH TO 1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
FROM JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH AND JUST EAST OF 60 WEST WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING BETTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MOISTURE WITH A FEW
BREAKS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BUT BECAUSE OF WEAK DYNAMICS THIS WILL ONLY PROLONG THE CURRENT
PATTERN OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FLEETING LIGHT SHOWERS.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE...OWING TO THE RIDGE...WILL PLAY LITTLE PART
IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALL SHOWERS...THOUGH PERSISTENT IN
SOME AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL INDUCE SOME VCNTY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN TAF SITES OF PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT TO 10- 15KT. SHRA WILL INCREASE AFT 24/14Z IN PR WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE VARYING WITH PEAKS IN THE MORNING
HOURS. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEAS PEAKING ON DEC 25 AT BUOY
41043 AND ON THE 26TH IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FEET IN SOME SECTIONS OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE SWAN MODEL SHOWED 9 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE LOCAL OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS. PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 8
AND 10 SECONDS...BUT ARE LOWER BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER FRIDAY. BUT ROUGH AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 60 70 50 50
STT 76 86 76 86 / 60 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...STAYING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A FEW OF THEM BRIEFLY
AFFECTING LAND AREAS BUT LEAVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. IT
WAS BREEZY OVER THE WATERS AND THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WITH
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH...HOWEVER THEY WERE LIGHTER ACROSS
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE PATCHES OF
MOISTURE THAT COME IN FROM TIME TO TIME...AND THE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND ISLANDS. NO REALLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY NEXT WEEK...THE EXPECTED
WEATHER IS STILL VERY SIMILAR...SIMPLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORIES AT
THE MOMENT ARE THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA IN THE MORNING HOURS. PASSING -SHRA
WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD/USVI ISLANDS AND TJSJ
THROUGH 24/15Z. LOW LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 15-25KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 9 FEET OR SO
AND THE WINDS CONTINUING TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. THERE IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF SAINT CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 60 50 50 40
STT 86 76 86 75 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING VERY
RAPIDLY WESTWARD. THEREFORE..RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS.THESE TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SMALL
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. PASSING -SHRA WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD/USVI
ISLANDS AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 25/15Z. LOW LVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 15-25KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEAS
ABOVE 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT. REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER
FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 50 50 40 40
STT 76 86 75 85 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST...AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
FREQUENT SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 15 MPH OR LESS...AND THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TODAY AND MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM TIME TO
TIME...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING FROM TIME
TO TIME THE LEEWARD/USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS. SCT LAYERS W/SHRA IS
EXPECTED BLO FL100. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT
15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SFC AFT 14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 9 FEET OR
SO AND THE WINDS CONTINUING TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. THERE
IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES
OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 75 / 50 40 30 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM TIME TO
TIME...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST...PRODUCING CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING VERY
RAPIDLY WESTWARD...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BRING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW OF
THEM REACHING FROM TIME TO TIME THE LEEWARD/USVI/EASTERN PR
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. SCT LAYERS W/SHRA IS
EXPECTED BLO FL100. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT
15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 9
FEET OR SO AND THE WINDS CONTINUING TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTLINES OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF SAINT
CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 85 / 40 30 30 30
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER ISOLATED AREAS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN USVI WERE
BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD THRU
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREFORE...UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR EACH DAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL...SAME TRADE WIND SHOWER
PATTERN WILL HOLD.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PRD. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING PASSING SHRA/-SHRA IN THE
DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO BKN
CLD LYR AT AROUND FL050-060 AFTER 26/13Z ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ.
WND WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AFTER 26/13Z WITH
GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LEAST THRU SUNDAY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6
TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM RINCON TO CABO ROJO AS THOSE WATERS ARE
PROTECTED FROM THE TRADE WIND GENERATED SEAS. ALSO...A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 85 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY
MINIMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY NEAR
THE SHOWERS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING
PASSING SHRA/-SHRA IN THE DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS THRU MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 26/23Z...
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LEAST THRU SUNDAY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6
TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM RINCON TO CABO ROJO AS THOSE WATERS ARE
PROTECTED FROM THE TRADE WIND GENERATED SEAS. ALSO...A MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
EAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS BOTH ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. RAIN GAGES ACROSS THESE AREAS REPORTED BETWEEN
0.05-0.25 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS SHOWERS STREAMED OVER THE SAME
AREAS. WINDS OVER LAND AREAS CONTINUED FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WILL EXIT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BY 27/12Z. PASSING SHRA... BRIEF SFC
WND GUSTS W/PASSING SHRA TIL AT LEAST 27/12Z. THE DOMINANT E-NE
L/LVL TRADE WILL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU ENTIRE FCST PRD. WNDS
DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVRNGHT...RECVRNG AT ALL SITES...10 TO
15 KTS AFT 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PR AND ST. CROIX AS STRONG CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE
AND UP TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 75 / 40 30 30 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SMALL AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS FLOW. FEW PASSING SHOWERS MOVED
RAPIDLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY LATE IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY
MINIMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY NEAR
THE SHOWERS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SMALL AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT INDUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 27/23Z...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS OF 8-10 FEET WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OF PR AND ST CROIX AS STRONG CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 85 75 84 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER AREAS OF THE
EAST AND SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAIN GAGES ACROSS THESE
AREAS REPORTED BETWEEN JUST UNDER 0.10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
WINDS OVER LAND AREAS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER OVER THE
WATERS IT CONTINUED FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOW 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CAUSING PDS OF MVFR
DUE TO CIGS WILL SPREAD OVER THE USVI BY 28/10Z WITH BRIEF MVFR
AND OVER ERN PR BY 28/12Z. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS TO ERN PR TIL 28/15Z...THOUGH TJSJ WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR AS WILL OTHER TAF SITES IN PR. WINDS EASTERLY 10-20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU FL130. THEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT UP TO
FL300.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
ARE INDICATING SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO NEAR 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS AT
10-20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THRU
AT LEAST THIS EVENING AS SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE STILL EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT THRU TUESDAY THEY WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHOPPY/ROUGH
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 30 40 40 40
STT 84 75 85 75 / 30 40 40 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
REGION TODAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED
TODAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. THERE ARE SCT BRIEF SHRA
WHICH WILL CAUSE LIKELY VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
TEMPO SHRA WITH BKN CIGS AT TJSJ AFTER 28/19Z CAUSING POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDS. TEMPO CIGS AT TNCM AND TKPK MAY BE BELOW FL020. WINDS
WILL BE EAST AT 15-20KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AFTER 28/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ONLY IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 85 75 85 / 40 40 60 60

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI/EASTERN HALF OF PR EACH DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH PASSING SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED BY RAIN GAGES ACROSS THESE AREAS
WERE BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.30 OF AN INCH. THE LAND BREEZE KEPT LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER OVER THE WATERS THE WIND WAS
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN HALF OF PR...WITH SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY
EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20 MPH BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN PR BY MID DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR ENTIRE PRD AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING -SHRA/SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS TIL AT LEAST 29/14Z. SCT-BKN CLD
LYRS...FL022...060...080. BRIEF MVFR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA WITH
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR TIL 28/14Z. SFC WND LGT/VRB AT ALL
TAF SITE OVRNGHT TIL 29/12Z...EXCEPT HIGHER WITH PASSING SHRA. SFC
WND INCRSNG AFT 29/12...FM E-SE 10-20 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE
UP TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND HOLD THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 30 40 50 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 40 60 60 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE WEEKEND...A MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE FROM THE
EAST BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE/ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS...DECREASING
SLIGHTLY AFT 29/22. SHRA/-SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UP TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HOLD THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 40 40 30 30
STT 75 85 75 85 / 60 60 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST WED DEC 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND GOOD CAP INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT AND
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IN TURN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROMOTE MODERATE
TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED A SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND QUICKLY STREAMING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS...AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED WESTWARDS CARRIED
BY THE DOMINANT TRADE WINDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
INSIGNIFICANT... ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS THEY QUICKLY STREAMED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL
CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME STREAMER LIKE SHALLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ANY RAINFALL HOWEVER IS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BRIEF WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND MOSTLY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH LESSER
OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WITH A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN OF QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHRA ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TISX...TIST AND TJSJ. AFTER 30/18...VCSH COULD BE OBSERVED ALSO
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AS WELL. BRIEF SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 30/13Z WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES
TODAY AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INCREASE AND HOLD THRU THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. BEGINNING TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT DUE TO ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
CREATED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 75 / 60 30 30 30
STT 86 76 85 76 / 60 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST THU DEC 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PATTERN WILL
HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE A MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS TO THEN SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AN OVERALL FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH NEW YEAR`S DAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SHORT DURATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
AT THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER
BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ERODE...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF OUR
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 31/18Z...VCSH COULD BE OBSERVED AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ AS WELL. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SHRA AT THE TERMINALS BUT
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-
15KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 15-20KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AFTER 31/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 74 / 50 50 20 30
STT 84 75 85 74 / 60 50 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI JAN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FARTHER
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LOOSEN THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
WEAKEN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME THE
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
BRING PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND PASSING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE FREQUENCY OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER
DIMINISH ALSO AS THE TRADE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

DISCUSSION...PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS BROUGHT
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ISOLATED AREAS. SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
REPORTED...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING AND OF SHORT
DURATION. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH BY
LATE MORNING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEASONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH FEWER PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST AS OVERALL FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPRESS
AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SHORT DURATION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS.

BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ERODE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...VCSH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. AFTER 01/14Z AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL REGION. CURRENTLY...WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 30K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...BOTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. IN THE MEANTIME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC...
LOCAL PASSAGES AND OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATER. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE CHOPPY AND STILL HAZARDOUS
WIND DRIVEN SEAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 87 74 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 74 84 75 / 20 30 30 20