Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Yep psyclone, the GFS keeps gradually backing off on those freezing temps. In fact the 18Z looks to have gotten a little warmer with 30s confined to northern Florida. Still with the active subtropical JET and likely damp conditions with even some rain at times, it should feel quite chilly. Here is a simulated IR image for next week which shows that active subtropical JET:

[psyclone]

Perhaps this is the beginning of a more normal cool/wet nino pattern. even though we're above normal on rainfall for year around my neck of the woods it is currently very dry.

[NDG]

I may sound like a burnt record but what a warm afternoon across FL, including my area with very little cloud cover other than a few fair wx cumulus clouds, with yet another record high here in Orlando.
I just did some calculations for this month, with the way we are going the month is going to end with an average monthly temp of near 71.5 deg F, shattering the old record of 71.3 deg F set back in 1971 as the warmest December. We are going to end the month with 23 days of highs of 80 or above, incredible!
Hard to believe that just 5 years ago we had the coldest December on record! Talking about the global wx going wacko.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well at least there some signs of a cooler jan.. If the AO/NAO start going negative. I've seen the models so many times go neg. 2 weeks in advance only to flip flop positive. But something to keep an eye on atleast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[NDG]

The -AO, which it appears it will not be a tease this time, does not do much to our wx temperatures, we still need that -NAO to force the core of the cold air down the peninsula.
A perfect example is next week's forecast. The GFS was wanting to drive the 30s all the way down to S FL, I questioned it regarding the NAO staying positive and sure thing the GFS is now only showing lows in the 40s at most for central FL, 50s for part of S FL if not 60s along the SE coast.
But the good thing for cooler wx lovers is that I don't see a return to record breaking warm temps for at least the first two weeks in January if not for the rest of the meteorological winter if the PNA stays positive through the period.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melborne disco from 3 PM this afternoon

RI-MON...COLD FRONT OOZES SWD DOWN THE PENINSULA FRI. A SHALLOW BUT
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS THE CENTER OF A STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO THE NW OVER TEXAS.
12Z ECM HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TWD THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH NOW LOOKS CLOUDY/COOL SAT AND TURNING CHILLY/WET
SUNDAY. STRONG SUBTROP JETSTREAK MORE TYPICAL OF EL NINO PUSHES A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GOMEX/FL. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA-TYPE UPGLIDE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECENT SHOT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL SUNDAY. BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON...
SFC LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL EAST OR SE COAST AND LIFTS
QUICKLY...WHICH PORTENDS DRYING TREND FROM LATE MONDAY ONWARD.

TEMP-WISE...FRI WILL BE DAY OF TRANSITION WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EARLY IN THE DAY (L70S NORTH TO L80S SOUTH). READINGS FALL BACK N-S
FROM THE AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT....BOTTOMING OUT IN THE L50S
NORTH...U50S/L60S CENTRAL AND M-U60S ACROSS MARTIN CO. MAXES IN THE
M60S NORTH TO L70S SOUTH FOR SAT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT SUN AS STRATIFORM RAIN HOLDS MAXES
DOWN IN THE 60S FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SAT SUN NIGHTS
BOTH LOOK COOL WITH 50S MOST AREAS...U40S N/W OF I-4.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I am safely back home from my journey in North Carolina. Had a wonderful time, except for the record warmth even there.

I get home here to discover that the NWS office in Jacksonville measured 85 degrees today. This set the all-time highest temperature ever measured here in the month of December. This is just mind-boggling this prolonged warm spell. This warmth this month assures that we will finish 2015 with both the warmest November and December ever on record here and across the peninsula.

So you warm weather fanatics, I think it is more than fair to say you have had WAY too much of your fill and fancy all Fall and into the early meteorological winter with this ridiculous pattern of warmth. This pesky, Bermuda ridge has controlled our weather seeingly forever...

I am so ready for some colder weather for crying out loud! I am playing catch up with the models now that I am back from my trip. Based on the glimpse of the model runs you all have posted, we have FINALLY some cooler air coming toward the peninsula this New Year's weekend. However, as NDG astutely points out, no arctic air mass will penetrate into the Florida peninsula without a strong -NAO index. But, I will gladly take this upcoming cool down, which should at the very least bring our temperatures back to near what the averages should be nearing the approach of January!

It also does appear the Sub-Tropical Jet looks to become increasingly active as we head into January, so maybe FINALLY, the long awaited cool, stormy pattern we have been long been anticipating with this Super El-Nino may be evolving.

[psyclone]

Tampa (KTPA) has registered 5 consecutive record highs (or ties) with 2 of those (25th & 26th) tying the all time December record (86).

[NDG]

GFS is very persistent in some very beneficial rains over the next couple weeks for CA and SW US, like I said hopefully they will be more beneficial than damaging.

[Sanibel]

Still warm enough to need a fan here.

[NDG]

Record breaking warmest December ever for many cities in FL, as of yesterday if not the day before Orlando broke that record by 2 tenths of a degree with an average monthly temperature of 71.5 degrees, a whopping 8.8 deg F above average. I have not turned on the heater so far this fall/winter. Today will mark the 23rd day this month we have had high temps of 80 degrees or higher, even for central FL standards this is insane and to think that just 5 years ago we had the coldest December ever. The wx around the world is crazy indeed lol.
Much cooler and stormier pattern coming up starting this weekend, good thing because my A/C needs a break.

[boca]

We just need the NAO to go negative and we will cool down.Does any one have any idea if or when that will happen and Happy New Year to storm2k members.

[NDG]

Many of us we will see a noticeable cool down starting this weekend, maybe not as much in S FL compared to central and north FL, the AO is going big time negative and the NAO is now forecasted to go at least neutral, so I would think that if not by the middle of the month that by the end of January we should see even a colder pattern setting in on top of stormy subtropical jet, I don't see the record breaking warmth returning to FL next month, we should at least see near average temps for the month with occasional very cool periods.

[psyclone]

Agree. the exceptional warmth is getting the boot and this time I think it's gone for good. The potential for much colder air to invade the east appears to be rising. we may be dependent upon the subtropical jet to bail florida out from potential freezing events.

[MetroMike]

The Climate Prediction Center as of yesterday's outlook still has a better than 50% chance of warmer than normal temps for central Florida through the middle of January.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne discussion

HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FRI-SAT...BUT EXPECT POPS TO BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOK WEAK. AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES ACROSS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OFFSHORE...BUT
STILL THINK GENERAL COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
LOCAL HIGHER TOTALS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE
STRENGTHENING OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...THEN REMAINING ON THE
BREEZY SIDE THROUGH MON. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF
DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON MON...SO MADE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN WETTER GFS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER ECMWF.

[northjaxpro]

Happy New Year everyone!!

Well, looking at the 12Z surface analysis this morning, the long awaited cold front which will FINALLY bring us a reprieve from the record warmth we have had the last 2 weeks, is finally on my doorstep. The front is currently just north and west of the Greater Jax metro area. Lake City is reporting north wind at 6 mph and Brunswick, GA is reporting 57 degrees with a north wind at 7 mph.

Currently 70.2 degrees with a light southwest wind of 6 mph at my locale. The cold front is finally getting a push south and east today by a trough which is swinging through the Eastern U.S. This will finally usher in temperatures to be what they should be like on January 1 instead of these ridiculous record highs in the 80s we have had the entire second half of December.

A series of impulses (upper shortwave disturbances moving in from the GOM) along the sub-tropical jet will increase the rain chances beginning today across the northern peninsula, and that will be the case as the front slowly pushes down the rest of the state through this holiday weekend. This is typical of a moderate to strong El Nino pattern for sure.

The cooler, northerly wind flow will FINALLY, at least for now, put an end to this craziness of the record heat and bring in much more seasonable temps. Temps will fall through the 60s after the noon hour here as the front sinks south. Temps are expected to fall to near 50 degrees by Saturday morning here, and only rise to the lower 60s tomorrow. A slightly cooler air mass will advect into the area by Sunday, with lows in the lower 40s and max temps only in the mid-upper 50s. Rain likely on Sunday as vigorous upper shortwave moves through the peninsula.

BTW, there was a streak of 8 consecutive days in the second half of December 2015 in which the mercury topped 80 degrees or more. 6 records were either tied or broken at the NWS Jax office, which included establishing an all-time record max ever for the month of 85 degrees on Dec.28.

[Ntxw]

Watch out around January 15-20th. Not sure if it's a major threat for a Florida freeze but there will likely be a potent cold front. If not Florida definitely the Gulf Coast.

[psyclone]

agree. pattern shift is definitely underway that could pave the way for some meaningful cold. we'll be watching for sure. in the meantime more seasonable weather is finally working into the state with an impressive temp gradient over north florida as the front slowly sinks south. It's currently 57 in Tallahassee while Brooksville is 83. Just getting back to normal is going to feel frigid, especially at night since lows around here have frequently been 20+ degrees above normal.

[gatorcane]

Watch out around January 15-20th. Not sure if it's a major threat for a Florida freeze but there will likely be a potent cold front. If not Florida definitely the Gulf Coast.

Interesting you say that as I notice the ECMWF is picking up on this big-time cold front in the last couple of runs.

240 hours with the artic air plunging southeastward towards the general direction of the Gulf coast and possibly Florida: