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TheStormExpert

#10261 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:48 pm

Happy New Years 2016 everyone on S2K! :bd:

Haven't been on here in awhile since the weather this fall/winter has been same old same old and what not. Currently I'm in the Nortwestern Bahams(Abacos) and it has been perfect vacation weather all week here! Even the water is warm enough to go in everyday. Not your typical Winter for these parts either!

Interesting to note that the just recently updated today 3-4 Experimental Temperature Outlook from the CPC calls for Below Average temperatures for the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and all through Florida(even S. FL) for the timeframe of January 16-29.
:jacket:

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#10262 Postby psyclone » Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:24 pm

there's been some chatter of a storm around the 10th with low latitude origins. such a set up could put florida in a severe weather set up if things come together right. the cpc 6-10 day shows above normal temps and precip...the combo you'd look for regarding severe potential. in the near term sunday looks raw around tampa bay with highs possibly failing to reach 60 degrees with rain. that's a break out the slow cooker and hibernate day.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10263 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:54 pm

Didn't the models point-out a cold front for today?


Didn't happen. It's warm down here.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10264 Postby ronjon » Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:42 pm

Sanibel wrote:Didn't the models point-out a cold front for today?


Didn't happen. It's warm down here.



It's coming Sanibel. Front will reach the keys by tomorrow morning. Won't break 57 deg tomorrow with stiff north wind and rain up here north of Clearwater.
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#10265 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:09 am

It has been a rainy overnight here as over 1.3 inches of rainfall has occurred at my locale up to now. The cool, rainy side of El Nino has finally arrived here across North Florida.

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Currently 49.3 degrees with light rain occuring here at my locale and more is on the way. A potent shortwave will move out of the GOM later today and bring one more round of good rainfall before ending tonight. May see a brief break with the rain for a few hours late this morning into the early afternoon, but rain will return later this afternoon with the approach of the shortwave energy, which is currently moving south of the Northern Gulf Coastal region of Louisiana. Rain and cool northwesterly flow will keep max temps only in the lower-mid 50s here today. Once the shortwave moves through by tonight, skies will begin to clear across the northern peninsula as a rather strong modified Polar High (1038 mb) over the Ohio Valley builds down the Eastern CONUS. Some areas across the Suwanee River Valley and Big Bend region may have a shot at touching the freeze mark on Tuesday morning. But, because the High is positioned well north of the peninsula, a similar set-up we had with the cool snap in mid-December across this area, the northerly winds may stay up enough to prevent a freeze to occur across the area. Also, as the High shifts east by Tuesday off the Mid-Atlantic, a cool, onshore flow will commence across Jax, and models are showing the development of a coastal trough just off the Northeast Florida coast. This will likely keep the Jax metro area from having a freeze on Tuesday morning. Lows at my locale Tuesday morning projected to be in the mid-upper 30s

Overall, a rainy, cool weekend across the northern peninsula and cooler temps are slowly filtering its way down the remaining of the state. Well, at least we will not have any more record warmth for awhile thank goodness!!

I took at peek at the long range models and there are hints given by GFS and EURO that both a significant cold outbreak and the potential of a possible winter storm could affect portions of the Deep South and the East Coast the period from January 14-20. Now, that is a long way out, and I don't like looking ahead past 10 days. But, it appears the PNA looks to stay positive and the NAO potentially may be at a neutral to slightly negative phase by mid-January. If that materializes, I think it is fair to reason that a decent cold spell could possibly impact the Eastern CONUS and POTENTIALLY the Florida peninsula later this month. However, too much can change obviously looking that far out. BUT, I am very cautiously analyzing this given how anomolous this El Nino has been this season. We desperately need a frost and freeze at some point here in Jax this season to kill the mosquitoes and other bugs or else we are going to suffer big-time from them we we get into the spring and summer.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#10266 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:30 am

northjaxpro, indeed the period starting around Jan 15th (possibly a little sooner) looks rather interesting. In the 06Z run of the GFS, we see snow in the vicinity of JAX and a 971MB winter low the pummels the Northeastern United States with a modified polar High behind that that at 1034MB that moves right over the JAX area (the High weakens to 1028MB by then) allowing for probably a decent freeze. Of course this is all in the long-range. Oh and the ECMWF at 240 hours shows a powerful arctic blast with the core that moves just north of Florida in the long-range. But just a slight shift south and it will put Florida in the big freeze.

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#10267 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:36 am

:uarrow:

Yeah, gatorcane, I saw that run of the GFS earlier this morning. It would be nice to see if it comes to fruition, but as we know, that is still 10 days out for that particular run. However, I will be watching it closely for the days to come.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10268 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:16 pm

65* and overcast here, which feels freezing.


80's forecasted by Thursday.
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#10269 Postby psyclone » Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:53 pm

Any returning warmth is destined to be transient. The warm pattern has been shattered..and the CPC 8-14 day really bears this out...it is an ocean of blue...something we've not seen in a long time. The chill feels cold but great...looking forward to some jacket/hoodie weather..
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#10270 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:01 pm

Global models appear to be trending colder and the CMC is showing 20s into Central Florida, and a freeze into SW Florida in the long-range: GFS is warmer but still cold for peninsula Florida :eek: :cold:

CMC:
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GFS
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#10271 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:49 pm

Wow look at those temperatures! I was looking at something the other day where in 84-85 it was a very warm December 84 then Jan 85 was very cold to include a 19* Jan 19, 1984 which is the coldest every high temp for Orlando.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10272 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:49 pm

This front feels chilly but it is a relatively mild one.

There's pools in the backyard wetlands from yesterday's abnormal shield-type steady rains which never happens in January down here.
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#10273 Postby psyclone » Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:15 pm

That CMC map shows warmer temps in southern ohio than central florida. I'm going make a not-so-bold prediction and suggest that's not happening.
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#10274 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:26 pm

:uarrow: And the 18z GFS drops it's crazy idea from it's 12z run. These models are all over the place these days! :roll:

This snippet from this afternoon's forecast discussion from the NWS: Miami shows you just how unpleasantly warm it's been this winter here in S. FL.

A RARE COOL DAY THIS WINTER SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPS
MOST LOCALES REMAINING IN THE 60S...AND A FEW REACHING 70F ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO. VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED DOWN THE PENINSULA
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

THIS COULD BE THE FIST NIGHT THIS WINTER SEASON THAT THE EAST
COAST CLIMATE SITES FALL BELOW 60F, BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE MODIFICATION OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM
COMMENCES. EITHER WAY, IT WILL FEEL COOL GIVEN HOW WARM WE HAVE
BEEN!
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Re: Florida Weather

#10275 Postby NDG » Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:19 am

I would not doubt that 30s will visit central FL over the next 2-3 weeks now that the NAO is forecasted to go negative, but a saving grace could be cloud cover from the active subtropical jet to keep us from reaching the freezing mark. IMO.
Time will tell.
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#10276 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:36 pm

Well the 12z Euro is not bullish at all with sending any of that colder air towards the peninsula of FL in the next 10 days. Even if the NAO briefly goes negative for a week at most the pattern seems way too progressive to allow troughs to deepen much along the Eastern U.S.

In fact this mornings 00z NAEFS Temperature Outlook for January 13th-20th calls for above average temperatures for S. FL. The CPC tends to follow this when releasing their daily temperature outlooks in the afternoon.

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Re: Florida Weather

#10277 Postby NDG » Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:57 am

Even with the NAO now going negative and the AO in big time negative territory for a few days now as if the core of the cold air continue to move eastward, only brushing the FL Peninsula, with a very active subtropical jet over us.
I have been using the winter of 82/83 as an analog when Orlando officially did not record a freeze that winter, but many areas in the northern surrounding outskirts, north of the I-4 corridor did recorded a light freeze in January '83. I am starting to think that because this El Nino our surface temps are even warmer than that year that we may not see a freeze any where close to central FL, but is way too early yet to declare it, we still have 3 more weeks of January to go through.
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#10278 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:02 am

Very brief hello this morning gang. In a rush to get to work. I will have a detailed synopsis later tonight on the forum.However, I will say that after looking at the long range outlook, things around the state potentially could become rather active as the Subtropical Jet looks to really become juiced and cranked up over the next 10-14 days. The GFS is really showing the potential of Low Pressure systems affecting the state over the extended period, especially the Jan 20-22 period. Lots will change of course.

But a classic split flow regime looks to get established across the CONUS in the long range as well. I will discuss later.
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#10279 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:33 am

northjaxpro, indeed the subtropical JET looks to really crank up bringing waves of unsettled weather to Florida over the next couple of weeks. Way out in the long-range the GFS is picking up on quite an impressive low for this time of year that impacts Florida. A classic El Nino pattern looks to commence:

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#10280 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:57 am

Well it looks like the NAO is going to possibly go more negative than originally forecasted if this mornings teleconnections forecast verifies. On top of that the AO is now forecasted to REALLY tank to negative levels, along with the PNA staying in the positive region. Let's see if models catch on or if this progressive pattern limits the amount of colder air coming down towards FL like it's been doing.

NAO 2 Week Forecast as of 1/6/16 :darrow:

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AO 2 Week Forecast as of 1/6/16 :darrow:

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PNA 2 Week Forecast as of 1/6/16 :darrow:

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