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TheStormExpert

Re: Florida Weather

#10341 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:07 am

Here are the low temperature readings I got from my home weather station here in Palm Beach Gardens, FL for every cool morning so far this month.

So far this morning with a reading of 54.5°F has been the coolest morning so far this winter season and also the coolest morning since late last March! Wouldn't mind it being even colder, but nothing more than mid 40's that's when it starts to get downright chilly.
:cold:

We will see what Mother Nature has to offer the rest of this month and winter season.

Monday January 4th, 2015
Temp.:
57.0°F @ 8:47am

Tuesday January 5th, 2015
Temp.:
56.8°F @ 3:42am

Wednesday January 6th, 2015
Temp.:
63.5°F @ 7:57am

Thursday January 7th, 2015
Temp.:
61.5°F @ 6:52am

Friday January 8th, 2015
Temp.:
63.1°F @ 3:32am

Saturday January 9th, 2015
Temp.:
63.6°F @ 7:27am

Monday January 11th, 2015
Temp.:
55.2°F @ 8:12am

Tuesday January 12th, 2015
Temp.:
56.1°F @ 8:12am

Wednesday January 13th, 2015
Temp.:
54.5°F @ 6:07am
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Re: Florida Weather

#10342 Postby Sanibel » Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:21 am

The weather border is over us and it is overcast again keeping the temperatures from climbing. Chilliest night yet last night. Needed a second blanket. 60.8*
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Re: Florida Weather

#10343 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:04 pm

12Z GFS just out has gone even colder for Florida for early next week. It looks like two nights of much below normal temps too. 38F for Ft. Myers! :cold:

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Here is the normally cold-bias CMC which brings 20s deep into the peninsula of Florida -

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Re: Florida Weather

#10344 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:36 pm

Prettygold surge of cold air is forecast for next week. Probably will see a chance of freezes here at my locale Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Long range forecast looks very interesting for the Deep South for Jan 22-24, if you follow the GFS. It shows a well developed winter storm bringing snow all across the Deep South and the Carolinas.

Now, watch the GFS drop the idea tomorrow lol... However, it is within the 10 day range, so I will keep an eye on this potential.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10345 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:10 pm

The latest EC looks to have gone a little warmer for Florida with the core of the arctic air passing just to the north of Florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10346 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:15 pm

Looking at dew points across Florida this afternoon, look at the stark contrast between SE Florida and the rest of the state - as is often the case in the winter months, SE Florida has its own "microclimate" compared to the rest of the state because of the warm Gulf stream current that hugs the coast:

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Re: Florida Weather

#10347 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:46 pm

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Re: Florida Weather

#10348 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 14, 2016 10:08 am

Well it dropped to 32.2 degrees earlier this.morning, which is the 3rd freeze measured here this week at my locale. Also had more scattered frost this morning. We had enough radiational cooling to drop to the freeze mark, despite the canopy of very high level cirrus clouds moving in overhead on the Subtropical Jet.

The Cold High Pressure axis, which had been parked right over North Florida and Southern GA region, will begin to shift east off the SE U.S. coast by early tomorrow. The first of two shortwaves will develop and move across Ths area during the day tomorrow. Could see rainfall totals in a few spots reaching 1-2 inches over the northern peninsula on Friday. A. Low Pressure area will begin to develop and deepen off the coast of the Carolinas late Friday and move northeast. There is no cold air downstream behind this particular system, so temps will be near climo levels here with minimums in the mid-upper 40s on Saturday morning and max temps in the upper 60s in the wake of the first departing Low Pressure.

The second shortwave will move in very quickly from out of the GOM during Sunday into Sunday night. More rain will move in across the peninsula. A stronger, Polar High Pressure will.drop down into the Plains by Monday, and build down south and east, which will funnel colder air back into the Deep South and into North Florida on Monday. Models projecting upper 20s - lower 30s for northern peninsula for Tuesday morning. Central Florida is looking at mainly 40-45 degrees, especially with high clouds probably still overhead with the STJ keeping temps up there, and mainly 50s across South Florida on Tuesday morning.

In the long range, the models have backed off on the potential of phasing the polar and sub'tropical jets. Earlier, the GFS in particular, was painting a potential of a phasing scenario, with the development of a winter storm over the Deep South Jan 21-23. However, that idea was quickly dropped (no surprise uh) :roll:

So the split flow pattern looks to remain very progressive the remainder of January. The current -AO will ensure that the polar jet will dive down into the CONUS to bring down frequent shots of cold air. There is just enough of a positive PNA to allow these transient cold shots to dive down into the SE U.S. to give the region and North Florida to receive freezes. But, these cold shots will be around only a couple of days when they occur. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet looks to remain very active in the extended outlook as well, as these storm systems will contnue to impact Texas, the GOM and Florida, very typical of El Nino.

The NAO I think is only in a slight negative phase at tbis point. The NAO has to really tank negative to allow really cold air to get locked into place across Eastern North America and down into Florida. At this point, this has yet to happen and if the NAO does not turn sharply negative by mid-February, the peninsula will get through another winter season relatively warm. Well, this El Nino this season has already assured this Fall/Winter 2015-16 season as one of the warmest we have seen on record anyway.

Have a great day everyone!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10349 Postby Sanibel » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:29 am

4th day in a row of overcast. Rain to our south. Misery with that nasty winter chill.

TWC says the Low will take the southern path and come right over us this weekend.

Cold plunge Monday and Tuesday predicted to give us low 40's at night.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10350 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:35 pm

:uarrow: You are correct Sanibel. Took at peek at the latest MOS guidance for Tuesday morning. It is projecting possible upper 30s-'lower 40s down to near I-4 corridor and possible mid-upper40s interior south central peninsula, to areas north and west of Lake Okeechobee.

However, much will depend on high cloudiness potential from the sibtropical jet, which can really hamper temps and how cold it could get across the central and southern areas of the peninsula. I am certain we will see more changes to this the next few days.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10351 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:59 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: You are correct Sanibel. Took at peek at the latest MOS guidance for Tuesday morning. It is projecting possible upper 30s-'lower 40s down to near I-4 corridor and possible mid-upper40s interior south central peninsula, to areas north and west of Lake Okeechobee.

However, much will depend on high cloudiness potential from the sibtropical jet, which can really hamper temps and how cold it could get across the central and southern areas of the peninsula. I am certain we will see more changes to this the next few days.


Meanwhile, as these back to back fronts push through Florida Friday and again on Sunday, even though there might appear to be a greater threat of isolated severe conditions closer to you Jax..., I get the greater sense that this second low that'll come across Florida around or south of Tampa, will likely bring more widespread rain to a larger region of the state (but mostly to South & Central). So far though, doesn't seem that the Melbourne NWS is yet biting on this as much of a rain event, much less a severe weather event.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10352 Postby psyclone » Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:24 pm

The CPC extended outlooks are slowly tilting milder with time. very interested in the upcoming active weather. lots of quick changes.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10353 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 14, 2016 3:58 pm

chaser1 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: You are correct Sanibel. Took at peek at the latest MOS guidance for Tuesday morning. It is projecting possible upper 30s-'lower 40s down to near I-4 corridor and possible mid-upper40s interior south central peninsula, to areas north and west of Lake Okeechobee.

However, much will depend on high cloudiness potential from the sibtropical jet, which can really hamper temps and how cold it could get across the central and southern areas of the peninsula. I am certain we will see more changes to this the next few days.


Meanwhile, as these back to back fronts push through Florida Friday and again on Sunday, even though there might appear to be a greater threat of isolated severe conditions closer to you Jax..., I get the greater sense that this second low that'll come across Florida around or south of Tampa, will likely bring more widespread rain to a larger region of the state (but mostly to South & Central). So far though, doesn't seem that the Melbourne NWS is yet biting on this as much of a rain event, much less a severe weather event.


Hey chaser1. Yeah, the best rain coverage and potential for storms across North Florida and the Jax area will be with the first Low Pressure system moving in from the GOM tomorrow. The second shortwave feature and Low Pressure area for Sunday will move out of the GOM on a more southerly track, down across South Florida, with the heaviest precip looking to be across South Central and South Florida peninsula. The areas across North Florida observing the latest models look to be on the cool, stable side of this system on Sunday, with lighter rain amounts on Sunday as the warm front appears to not make it north much above the I-4 corridor. Due to the fast movement of these southern stream features, the question is will there be enough time to have suffucient CAPE across South Florida? Vertical shear will be in place, along with deep layer moisture, but CAPE looks limited for the generation of severe thunderstorms at this time. But, I would still monitor the potential of strong storms down in the southern peninsula on Sunday should changes in dynamics happen just a bit.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10354 Postby NDG » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:34 am

Incredible bow echoes with the line of storms coming into the big bend of FL off of the GOM, good thing the line over land east of Tallahassee seems to be elevated but the one pointing towards the southern end of the Nature Coast may have more punch to it as it moves inland.
Hope boaters did not get caught in this wx this morning, up to 10 foot waves and wind gusts to 50 knots reported by buoys this morning.

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Re: Florida Weather

#10355 Postby NDG » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:57 am

Besides the severe wx threat from the line of storms moving in from the GOM into central FL and the Nature Coast, southern FL has a threat for tornadic super cells later this afternoon by looking at the latest HRRR model because SE FL has the best dynamics at the surface for rotating super cells if they develop. Keep up with the wx during the day today.
Sounding this morning from Tampa Bay shows an amazing low level jet but a stable layer at the surface with an inverted layer at h85.

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Re: Florida Weather

#10356 Postby psyclone » Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:57 am

Line is weakening as it approaches the nature coast/tampa bay area. I do agree south florida has the better severe risk later as they have a chance for some surface destabilization and the SPC has upgraded them to slight risk in the latest outlook. skinny line about to move onshore from Clearwater up to hernando county..no warnings for these areas though..
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Re: Florida Weather

#10357 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:03 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-151400-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-
METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
806 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EST...

* AT 803 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...FORT LAUDERDALE...PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...
MIRAMAR...CORAL SPRINGS...WEST PALM BEACH...POMPANO BEACH...
DAVIE...MIAMI BEACH...PLANTATION...SUNRISE...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD
BEACH...BOYNTON BEACH...DELRAY BEACH...HOMESTEAD...TAMARAC AND
WELLINGTON.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10358 Postby NDG » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:18 am

Latest from the SPC:

...FL...

EARLY THIS MORNING A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
NWRN PENINSULA SWD INTO THE ERN GULF MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40 KT.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH
LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES...BUT THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INLAND IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF QLCS
TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER NWRN FL WITHIN 50 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
FARTHER INLAND DUE TO PRESENCE OF A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER...RESULTING IN WEAKER
CONVERGENCE AS PRIMARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GA.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN FL...FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
IN PLACE FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RAOB DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO
POOR LAPSE RATES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SRN THROUGH CNTRL PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CLOUD
BREAKS...SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10359 Postby NDG » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:40 am

46 mph wind gust reported in Brooksville as that squall moves through.


Conditions at: KBKV (BROOKSVILLE , FL, US) observed 1433 UTC 15 January 2016
Temperature: 17.8°C (64°F)
Dewpoint: 16.1°C (61°F) [RH = 90%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 inches Hg (1010.9 mb)
Winds: from the WNW (290 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 knots; 15.1 m/s)
gusting to 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
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Re: Florida Weather

#10360 Postby NDG » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:45 am

SW FL needs to keep an eye on the cells moving in from the GOM, they are starting to rotate.

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