Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

The lack of high latitude blocking is killing us this "winter." Cold blasts progressive and angled towards the Great Lakes and East Coast all month. Considering how warm December was and outside of the first 10 days in January, we're going to end up anomalously warm for Dec-Jan.

I wouldn't mind some more rain, El Niño.

There's been plenty of blocking, just the Pacific has not cooperated. Areas to the N and NE (where the blasts are) is actually warmer than avg than we are here. Teens and 20s is colder for us but for them its just a little below normal.

Its not so much the lack of blocking, its the lack of anomalous cold air. And really this period just solidified my discontent with +PNA' and -NAO. It just benefits the east and lakes. About as reliable as those drunkin PWC mets! Give me a -PNA bowling ball and -EPO

I'm not sure I buy this ... if we had blocking in the North Atlantic, the deep and cold troughs which have impacted areas to our E/NE wouldn't be so progressive. Essentially the fast flow would slow down as I understood it. Maybe I'm wrong. That has happened more than once.

I don't argue the lack of anomalous cold air. That definitely has been true more than not. Here's the question though: how can the AO be so incredibly negative yet we lack that cold air in this part of the globe? One would think that even at the high latitudes of North America that they would be suffering through an incredibly tough winter. I don't think they are. It doesn't add up.

Porta the NAO is as negative in winter this month as it has ever been since 2010. Also AO is -4 SD there is blocking but the Pacific is piling up too much stuff. Also the +PNA just slides the cold air east

On lack of cold air I don't know what else to blame other than the El Nino. It pumps a lot heat into the atmosphere. Whatever the reason when you get into the monster Nino cold just doesn't like to build in Canada.

I cringe over the years following the models and busting on cold outbreaks using the +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo. 2011-2012 spooked me since on using it. Its just not as reliable as -EPO/-PNA combo

[wxman57]

...snip...

On lack of cold air I don't know what else to blame other than the El Nino. It pumps a lot heat into the atmosphere. Whatever the reason when you get into the monster Nino cold just doesn't like to build in Canada.

Now what/who could be responsible for the lack of cold air?

[Portastorm]

I clearly have learning to do ...

Well, no matter. I blame wxman57 for all of this. It's his fault.

[Ntxw]

...snip...

On lack of cold air I don't know what else to blame other than the El Nino. It pumps a lot heat into the atmosphere. Whatever the reason when you get into the monster Nino cold just doesn't like to build in Canada.

Now what/who could be responsible for the lack of cold air?

Just cruel we don't need cold just give us the snow in Feb down to Austin/Houston and we'll give you 90s in March

[orangeblood]

The sustained + WPO over the past month hasn't helped things either....all of the Siberian Air is pouring off Asia into the Northern Pacific/instead of up and over the Pole down into North America. This combined with the Strong El Nino is creating a fire hose jet across the Pacific into the west coast. Not sure how we can relax the eastern Pacific jet unless the convection in the central Pacific shifts more towards the Dateline (signs this might happen in Feb into March if Modoki establishes itself)

Most of the cold anomalies appear to be on the other side of the Globe at this time....also note the white glob in the northern pacific originating from northeast Asia, that's where all of our cold air is being wasted unfortunately!!

[wxman57]

I see that the 12Z GFS has a long duration ice storm across much of north and central Texas - in around 12 days. I wonder what the next run will show...

[davidiowx]

Probably mid 70s with sunshine! Wouldn't you just love that!!

[hriverajr]

No wants to touch that post wxman57

[Tireman4]

I clearly have learning to do ...

Well, no matter. I blame wxman57 for all of this. It's his fault.

See I told you. I told you all. Did you hear me, nooooooo. I said, please leave the man alone. Nobody listened. Someone told him to turn on his hearing aid. Two folks mocked him. Now, what do we get? No snow. No frigid cold. No nuthin..sigh.....

[gboudx]

I clearly have learning to do ...

Well, no matter. I blame wxman57 for all of this. It's his fault.

See I told you. I told you all. Did you hear me, nooooooo. I said, please leave the man alone. Nobody listened. Someone told him to turn on his hearing aid. Two folks mocked him. Now, what do we get? No snow. No frigid cold. No nuthin..sigh.....

But as an avid runner, I would think you would welcome warmer days. I know I would. But then again, I haven't been able to run since about Halloween so I should just shut up.

[EnnisTx]

I clearly have learning to do ...

Well, no matter. I blame wxman57 for all of this. It's his fault.

See I told you. I told you all. Did you hear me, nooooooo. I said, please leave the man alone. Nobody listened. Someone told him to turn on his hearing aid. Two folks mocked him. Now, what do we get? No snow. No frigid cold. No nuthin..sigh.....

But as an avid runner, I would think you would welcome warmer days. I know I would. But then again, I haven't been able to run since about Halloween so I should just shut up.

Get a treadmill..... I want some snow!!!

[dhweather]

I see that the 12Z GFS has a long duration ice storm across much of north and central Texas - in around 12 days. I wonder what the next run will show...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_44.png

But it was indicating 60's and dry for the same time frame just two days ago.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS keeping hope alive for some snow across N TX tomorrow as it comes in a tad cooler with good deep moisture.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: No one wants to touch that post wxman57

[EnnisTx]

18Z GFS keeping hope alive for some snow across N TX tomorrow as it comes in a tad cooler with good deep moisture.

Ralph, Could you please post the 18Z GFS.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS keeping hope alive for some snow across N TX tomorrow as it comes in a tad cooler with good deep moisture.

Ralph, Could you please post the 18Z GFS.

Sorry, very busy at work so can't get image together. Tomorrow afternoon it shows DFW with surface at 37 and the freezing level around 1,000 feet up. For Lindale it shows a 39 with the freezing level closer to 3,000 feet up. In both cases there is some room for cooling with any heavy precip bands.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Temperatures, and dewpoints, appear to be falling pretty quickly across Oklahoma.

[South Texas Storms]

The latest 24-hour experimental HRRR is indicating no snow anywhere near DFW tomorrow. All of it stays in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

[Ntxw]

Good news is any stray flakes that fly tomorrow if they occur will be during the afternoon in daylight. No need to squint or stay up late for a flake or two!

[Ralph's Weather]

39/34 already is a good start. Temps vary quite a bit across our area this evening.