Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Portastorm]

Interesting snippet from this morning's forecast discussion out of EWX:

FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
DAILY MORNING FREEZES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE POLAR
JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS (PRIMARILY ECMWF AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS) OF THE COLD
PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY AS ARCTIC AIR
DUMPS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE FAR OUT IN TIME
AND UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY AROUND FEBRUARY 9-11.

[Portastorm]

The 0z and 6z GFS operational runs have backed off on the winter storm scenario for the Feb 9-11 period. However, the 0z Euro operational run lays down a swath of 1-2" of snow across much of south central Texas in that period. The CMC remains bullish as well. The signals are clearly there for a storm system to impact the state in that time frame. As always the big questions will be how cold is the airmass and how much moisture will be in play.

[wxman57]

And now, no snow in the overnight GFS run. A little cold rain for D-FW next week. Euro has a little snow near Austin on the 9th.



Meanwhile, the first bluebonnets of the spring have decided that winter is over:

[Portastorm]

wxman57 writes: Euro has a little snow near Austin on the 9th.

Your word choice is humorous, my friend. The model shows 1-2" in SC TX. If that were to verify, that would be EARTH SHATTERING for this area. It may be a "little snow" to someone who lives in upstate NY or NE Ohio, but for here ... all society would shut down.

Enjoy the next few days because winter is finally coming to Texas.

[wxman57]

wxman57 writes: Euro has a little snow near Austin on the 9th.

Your word choice is humorous, my friend. The model shows 1-2" in SC TX. If that were to verify, that would be EARTH SHATTERING for this area. It may be a "little snow" to someone who lives in upstate NY or NE Ohio, but for here ... all society would shut down.

Enjoy the next few days because winter is finally coming to Texas.

Well, "little" compared to the East Coast storm last week.

I hope you get your snow, Portastorm. Don't let your hopes get up too high until the day before, though. This may just turn out to be a hard freeze behind a like of showers/thunderstorms.

[Portastorm]

You're very kind, sir, to allow such an event to happen while your hand is on the thermostat.

I will take your advice to heart, knowing in all seriousness that the odds are much more likely it'll be a dry airmass and the statistically remote possibility that it actually might snow in Austin. As you alluded to yesterday, I think we can agree that the coldest period of winter lies ahead in the next 2-3 weeks. What that means in terms of actual temps and wintry precip threats remains to be seen. March will be here before we know it and those early Spring surprises to which you have documented will be in control.

[Ntxw]

El Nino March and April tends to be very cold following a nino winter.

[Portastorm]

Euro and CMC (1st and 3rd images) build West Coast ridge in 8-10 further west while GFS (middle) is "east" outlier. Explains why the former two are more bullish on wintry precip chances for Texas around Feb 9-11.

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS has the perfect track of the low for me. The fairly rare Apps runner, too bad it's still 10 days out.

[srainhoutx]

I see a couple of other features that the GFS may be having trouble resolving. First, the NCEP suite of guidance is totally opposite of the other Global models with the future of another amplified orbit of the MJO. The ECMWF suggests the MJO will progress with its amplified MJO orbit not too dissimilar to what we witnessed back in December/ 1st half of January and that seems to be a more logical solution to me. THE NCEP is wavering day to day regarding the MJO, and that tends to raise an eyebrow in its reliability. Secondly, the Stratospheric Warming event in some form or fashion continues to look legitimate. Will it end up being a MMW (Major Midwinter Warming) event? It's too soon to know with any certainty. There are indications that the wind speeds at the highest latitudes of the Polar Region may be slowing down. In a true MMW/SSW event we sometimes see a complete wind reversal, so that will need to be monitored as there have been hints of the Polar Vortex splitting. I will add that this strong El Nino may have started a bit slow regarding the cold weather expected across our Region, but we may be dealing with some rather interesting changes during February and possibly well into March. I just hope the waters of the NW Gulf are not too cold when wxman57 and I are in S Padre Island for the 2016 National Tropical Weather Conference mid April. We plan on doing some fishing on a free day while we are down there.

[hriverajr]

On the Bastardi Index.. He is not happy about the east coast... Favorable for us I would say :p

[Ntxw]

It's the GFS vs all the other models regarding the ridge. Inside the west coast vs just off the coast. Inside and it's +PNA dry NW flow cold. Off the coast and less +PNA with a storm digging down in the west, more cold.

In addition I'd like to see the ridge pop more in the Alaskan/Canadian border vs up the western US.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS doesn't even have a freeze for the Dallas area through 10 days. In the mid-levels, the GFS has the upper low in Ohio on the 9th while the 00Z EC had a triple-lobed upper low - one over southern IA, one in western OK, and a third near El Paso on the 9th. To the west, the 12Z GFS has the ridge axis over Nevada while the EC has it just offshore California. Thus, nothing of interest in the 12Z GFS run and possible snow according to the Euro. Which one will win? Generally, what happens is something in-between the two.

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS doesn't even have a freeze for the Dallas area through 10 days. In the mid-levels, the GFS has the upper low in Ohio on the 9th while the 00Z EC had a triple-lobed upper low - one over southern IA, one in western OK, and a third near El Paso on the 9th. To the west, the 12Z GFS has the ridge axis over Nevada while the EC has it just offshore California. Thus, nothing of interest in the 12Z GFS run and possible snow according to the Euro. Which one will win? Generally, what happens is something in-between the two.

I vote for the Canadian

[perk]

On the Bastardi Index.. He is not happy about the east coast... Favorable for us I would say :p

Are you still on wxman57's side.

[perk]

12Z GFS doesn't even have a freeze for the Dallas area through 10 days. In the mid-levels, the GFS has the upper low in Ohio on the 9th while the 00Z EC had a triple-lobed upper low - one over southern IA, one in western OK, and a third near El Paso on the 9th. To the west, the 12Z GFS has the ridge axis over Nevada while the EC has it just offshore California. Thus, nothing of interest in the 12Z GFS run and possible snow according to the Euro. Which one will win? Generally, what happens is something in-between the two.

I vote for the Canadian

The Canadian has my vote too.

[Ntxw]

We love cherry-picking the Canadian. Bigger, stronger ridge up to British Columbia. Sends the "Polar Vortex" to the northern plains and 510 500mb thickness down to the Texas panhandle, 1052mb surface high in Montana. Now that's an arctic outbreak! CMC for president

[Tireman4]

The Crazy Uncle for the win. Goodness the humidity..ughh

[northjaxpro]

Yes, if the CMC is right, could see a "blue norther" set up for the Southern Plains and into Texas in 10 days.

[northjaxpro]

Here is what Ntwx is referencing to in his post just above within 10 days out, with CMC showing a 1052 mb Arctic High over Montana. CMC 240 hr 850 hPA streamlines forecast