Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Alyono]

check by Baja. BIG difference there

[Andrew92]

There is another thing worth noting on these graphics. The projection for August 2016 doesn't give a specific date, so I'm not sure if that's the beginning of end of August, or just a monthly average (which is what I would guess is most likely). What I have been looking at from 1959 are monthly or even period averages (I have looked at several different periods including ones of over several months of that year).

But the graphic that Hurricanetrack shared has a date of 8/2/05. Again, I could be wrong, but I am leaning towards looking at a long trend versus a sample of one day, because everything can and does change quickly.

Also, off Baja in 1959 was very warm, much like the projection, unlike 2005. Again, I look at an EPAC cross-section for 1959, and it is very, very close to what is being projected for 2016. I don't know as much about the Atlantic though. However, 1959 was in an active Atlantic period, and it would not surprise me if we are still in one, even after the last few years. Sometimes an overall favorable Atlantic becomes briefly less favorable; sometimes when it is overall unfavorable, it briefly becomes favorable as well (such as 1988-89 during an overall quiet period).

-Andrew92

[Alyono]

EC preliminarily (through MJJ) is hinting at a 1959/1983/1992 setup. Well formed la niña with 1-2C positive anomalies and strong positive precip anomalies in the EPAC development region near Central America

[Steve]

I don't know anything about GWO - Global Weather Oscillations - apparently out of central Florida. So I didn't put them in the experts thread. They have chimed in on their 2016 and 2017 seasons and see the most dramatic 2 year period for the US since 2004-2005. One of their expectations is that we will be in a "Climate Pulsed Hurricane Enhancement Cycle" as noted by the 11 (or 12 if you count Alex which is a 16 event but closer to the 15 season) named systems that despite the strong El Nino conditions formed in the Atlantic anyway. They say they'll release their landfall zones in April or May. Just some interesting reading...

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2016/01/prweb13191018.htm

[emeraldislenc]

Very interesting to read. Thanks for everyone's thoughts.

[ninel conde]

I agree with them.

[Steve]

Haha. You better watch it or all those thinking you were a downcaster will now think you're a wis**aster. But I know you don't care and stick to your guns. I'm not sure what's going to happen. I think some of what they say makes sense, and I'm sort of intrigued by some of the +NAO and trough/ridge orientations this winter which are not at all similar to the last couple of years - though some of the water temperature profiles are (in places). Early thoughts would seem to put Western basin threats either in the SW Gulf or MS/AL coasts over to the Bahamas which was similar to what I saw last year. But we still have to get through winter high-tide for mean trough position and then see if some of these large upper systems start splitting off which would be more typical of La Nina and Neutral ENSO conditions rather than progressing across the country. Once that starts happening off the US and Mexican SW Coasts, then we can see if large, independent ULLs start migrating across the Atlantic Basin. If that's happening June/July, I think that late summer could be interesting.

[WPBWeather]

Not that it matters too much, but I also agree. MDR deniers, take notice

[tolakram]

Not that it matters too much, but I also agree. MDR deniers, take notice

I'm shocked.

So who is GWO? If you google search you can find some less than flattering information about the founder and the research. Google David Dilley in particular. I can find no independent confirmation of there claim of this incredible prediction accuracy. I'm not blaming anyone for linking but I think it needs to be said that their claims, unless someone can find independent verification, are pretty sketchy.

I did find what appears to be talk about their 2014 forecast that is much different from what they claim today.

http://dcameragroup.com/expected-hurric ... -for-2014/

According to Global Weather Oscillations, between June and November, an estimated 17 named storms are projected to take shape, three of which have the potential to be major. These are hurricanes that produce sustained wind gusts of at least 111 miles per hour, or what NHC would call a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

David Dilley, CEO of Global Weather Oscillations Inc., indicated that recent history has been a period of moderate hurricane formation, but that trend is expected to reverse itself this time around.

“There are no random hurricanes,” said Dilley. “Everything occurs in cycles.”

Whatever happens to take place over the next six months, residents of the Atlantic are encouraged to review their insurance policies, whether homeowners, business or flood. Nine years ago, 28 named hurricanes formed in the Atlantic, making it one of the busiest seasons on record, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Time will tell what the 2014 season will bring.

[Steve]

Agreed. Their claims are sketchy and seem a little too good to be true. However, it's a new season and they have the right to say what they want. I'll look at what they have to say when they put out their landfall forecast in April or May and hold them accountable.

Edit to say the search turned up he is ex noaa and a climate conspiracy guy. I actually believe cooling and warming are cyclical - mostly, and I have no idea on whether the extra ppb of co2 makes a difference. Otherwise, I tend to be anti-pollution and pro-environment. So that puts my *** sort of in no man's land. Haha.

[Andrew92]

I have never really trusted GWO. I mean, certainly they might have truly gotten some of their particulars correct here and there. But I always had a nagging feeling there was some prediction that was way off the mark that they were not publishing. And I just think giving forecasts for the 2017 season this early is a little irresponsible. I would rather just get through 2016 first and then see what 2017 will look like before going out on a limb like that. But then again, it is tempting even for me sometimes to wonder what will come further down the road, so I can't criticize them too much for at least taking a crack at it.

I mean, even I have presented a theory before about activity in the years following an El Nino. Based on my theory, and the fact that El Nino is forecast to end this year, I could probably give some thoughts on 2017 if I really wanted to. But could I pinpoint this far out where exactly anything major will take place? No, I am not even good at that less than a year out.

So for now, I would just rather talk about 2016. Even with El Nino on the way out though from the looks of it, I am still eager to see what happens north of the Equator, namely in the EPAC MDR, in terms of SST anomalies. Will we have a genuinely cold EPAC all around? Or will this be like 1959, 1983, and/or 1992: cold at the Equator to call it a La Nina by definition, but warm almost everywhere else? The CFS has hinted at the latter a few times already this winter, and other models are kind of showing a gradual turn to La Nina, perhaps reaching that in the fall. The latter would not be too different from 1983, which finally saw La Nina really flex itself closer to the peak of the season...a very quiet year in the Atlantic indeed except for Alicia. Of course, my top analog has been 1959 because that was in an active Atlantic period, and I sense the overall activity seen in 2015 could suggest that the active period since 1995 has not yet come to an end. 1983 and 1992, by contrast, were in a quieter period.

Overall, I don't know that I buy 17 named storms this year based on these projections. But they have a right to their opinion and methodology, and time will tell....and there is absolutely a possibility that their numbers of storms are correct, but the overall quality is low for the most part for those storms.

-Andrew92

[ninel conde]

I think this season will be much closer to 2004 or 1999 than 1959.

[Yellow Evan]

I think this season will be much closer to 2004 or 1999 than 1959.

Why? 2004 was a Modoki El Nino and 1999 was a 2nd year La Nina. Both were in -PDO eras.

[ninel conde]

Enso isnt the only predictor and we had more activity than expected this season with a super el nino. next season i expect a stronger west atlantic ridge. 17 named storms seems reasonable to me.

[TheStormExpert]

Enso isnt the only predictor and we had more activity than expected this season with a super el nino. next season i expect a stronger west atlantic ridge. 17 named storms seems reasonable to me.

How are we even sure what the steering pattern will be like this upcoming summer/fall? Personally I believe it could go either way, but I too am leaning towards a stronger Bermuda High/East Coast Ridging. Still though 1999 had a weaker Bermuda High when compared to 2004. For example look how Floyd spared Florida but passed through the Bahamas on it's way to North Carolina. 2011 would seem like a better season to compare with 1999.

[Yellow Evan]

Enso isnt the only predictor and we had more activity than expected this season with a super el nino. next season i expect a stronger west atlantic ridge. 17 named storms seems reasonable to me.

Not really. We had 3 hurricanes and 2 majors last year. And if we get warmth more concentrated over the EPAC, conditions could become quite hostile in the Carb/GOM, which is were if we get a strong WATLL ridge, favors storms in that area .

[WPBWeather]

"JAMSTEC shows flip to La Nina by fall, N Atlantic cooling, Cool enso, warm MDR atlantic =Big ACE hurricane season" per Joe B.

Joe's on board for the MDR early this year.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF MSLP forecast for June,July and August has high pressure at MDR but neutral pressure elsewhere.

[Alyono]

Enso isnt the only predictor and we had more activity than expected this season with a super el nino. next season i expect a stronger west atlantic ridge. 17 named storms seems reasonable to me.

Not really. We had 3 hurricanes and 2 majors last year. And if we get warmth more concentrated over the EPAC, conditions could become quite hostile in the Carb/GOM, which is were if we get a strong WATLL ridge, favors storms in that area .

Probably not the GOM though. Even in 1983, we had 2 hurricanes in the Gulf

[Darvince]

I'm also on board with the MDR becoming active, even if there's devastating shear like this year. Because of Atlantic niña.