SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON

[stormwise]

RE-Intensifying ,CDO is improving on each frame..

[stormwise]

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REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 171.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO IMPROVE WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WRAPPING
INTO A VERY COMPACT EYE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.
A 162321Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION
COMPLETELY SURROUNDS A DISTINCT AND COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0
FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC WINSTON REMAINS FAVORABLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ARE NOW IN THE LOW
RANGE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS HIGH (30
CELSIUS) AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN ADDITION TO THE ESTABLISHED EASTWARD
CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE DEEP-LAYER NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC
WINSTON ON ITS CURRENT EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALBEIT
AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE, TC WINSTON HAVING ALREADY SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TC, A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST, CAUSING TC WINSTON TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, UNDER THE COMBINED
INFLUENCE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES, TC WINSTON WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU
72. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC WINSTON
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAK INTENSITY REACHING 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
THEREAFTER THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTAINING TC WINSTON AS AN INTENSE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL DEPICTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Pretty good comeback thus far.

[stormwise]

Severe Tropical Cyclone WINSTON Category 3

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number A27

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 170136 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7 SOUTH 171.6 WEST AT 170000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 10 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.       
     
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN  90 NAUTICAL MILES IN  W
SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH RAGGED EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VIS
IMAGERY PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
AND IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON W EYE IN B SURROUND, ADJUSTMENT
MADE DUE TO W EYE EMBEDDED IN W WITH BANDING YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=4.5,
PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.6S 170.4W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.7S 169.9W MOV E AT 02KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 17.9S 170.4W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 18.2S 171.5W MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 170800 UTC.

[stormwise]

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HURRICANE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 170706 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3
SOUTH 171.0 WEST AT 170600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.3S 171.0W at 170600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
18000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.3S 170.4W AT 171800 UTC
AND NEAR 17.4S 170.6W AT 180600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 034.



[1900hurricane]

If Winston can manage to pop a good eye in a CDO as cold as it is currently maintaining, intensity estimates will skyrocket.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the eye is beginning to clear again.



ADT 8.2.1 has already lost its lunch with a raw of 7.8.

[stormwise]

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A31 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 180110 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 953HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0 SOUTH 171.1 WEST AT 180000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR
GOES VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST AT 05 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VIS
IMAGERY.ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON MG EYE IN LG SURROUND WITH CDG BAND YIELDS DT=5.5,
MET AND PT AGREE, FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 17.1S 171.8W MOV W AT 03KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 17.3S 173.1W MOV W AT 05KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190900 UTC 17.7S 174.9W MOV WSW AT 09KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 192100 UTC 18.2S 176.7W MOV WSW AT 09KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 180800 UTC.

Cat5 in the track forecast.

[stormwise]

NCEP Operational HWRF Forecast, has a solid ridge without a weakness. Suggesting Winston will barrel into Fiji if it verifys.

[euro6208]

Interesting pesky system slamming the South Pacific islands!

[stormwise]

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WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 171.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROADENING, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED, CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 180634Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS
BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-5.5
(90 TO 102 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TC WINSTON HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AFTER
BEING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY TAU 120, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS POLEWARD AND A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
FROM TAU 12 TO 24, AS VWS REMAINS WEAK, AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU
48 AS IT TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THEN BEGINS TO
DIVERGE IN LATER TAUS, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Since it's formation, it has avoided the major populated islands of the South Pacific. Smaller islands aren't so lucky and they are abundant in this area of the world.



Fiji

[stormwise]

looks to have sorted out some dry air mixing in earlier,Structure now appearing to be transiting to annular.

[euro6208]

JTWC track very similiar to what EURO is showing. Takes it right over the southern islands of Fiji as a 950's mb cyclone.

GFS is even more bullish. Takes Winston right over the main island with Fiji's most populous municipality, Nasinu, right in the path. Suva is right after. Crosses the island strengthening and peaks it at 908 mb as it races away.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 181802
TCSSP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1802 UTC THU FEB 18 2016

A. Tropical cyclone Winston.

B. 18/1722Z.

C. 17.4°S.

D. 173.3°W.

E. Himawari-8/goes-15.

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Ow eye with a large surrounding lg shade yields a 5.0 eye number. An eye adjustment of +0.5 due to a W surrounding ring yields a DT of 5.5. MET and PT agree. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions 18/1408Z 17.4°S 172.8°W amsu 18/1530Z 17.3°S 172.9°W ssmis.

$$
KODAMA

[stormwise]

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ICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A34 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 181951 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 173.3W AT 181800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 100 KNOTS. 


EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

WELL DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG SURROUND WITH W RING
DT=6.0, MET AND PT AGREE, FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 17.8S 174.9W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 18.1S 176.8W MOV W AT 09KT WITH 105 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 18.3S 178.7W MOV W AT 09KT WITH 105 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 18.5S 179.7W MOV W AT 08KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 190200 UTC

[Yellow Evan]

South side looking rather weak. from the look of things, this is likely 110 knots, and that maybe a little conservative. The eye is quite warm and clear.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 182352
TCSSP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2352 UTC THU FEB 18 2016

A. Tropical cyclone Winston.

B. 18/2322Z.

C. 17.5°S.

D. 174.7°W.

E. Himawari-8/goes-15.

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Ow eye with a surrounding black shade wider than 0.5 deg yields a 5.5 eye number. An eye adjustment of +0.5 due to a W ring surrounding ow yields a DT of 6.0. MET and PT agree. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions 18/1723Z 17.5°S 173.4°W amsu.

$$
KODAMA

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS26 KNES 182353
TCSWSP

A. 11P (WINSTON)

B. 18/2322Z

C. 17.5S

D. 174.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE WITH OW EYE
SURROUNDED BY WH. PT=5.5. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

110 knots Cat3.

REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 175.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH A 15 NM EYE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115
KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WINSTON
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY BY TAU 72 AS IT MOVES OVER AN AREA WITH
INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN