Texas Spring 2016

[Texas Snowman]

Beautiful morning of 37 degrees here in Denison. Going to flirt with freezing tonight.

Had a good roaring fire going last night, will have another one tonight.

[weatherdude1108]

Our local news had a report on Lake Travis - 100% full for the first time since 2010. Nice heading into Summer! Nice in general! Been a LONG time.

http://keyetv.com/news/local/boaters-ce ... ake-travis

[aggiecutter]

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like Winter is trying to go out like a lion with a late season possible frost/freeze at the beginning of Spring.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

TXZ171>173-184>194-203>209-219>221-223-201115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-GONZALES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
GONZALES
255 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...FROST AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT BRISK NORTH WINDS HAVE USHERED IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME
LOW LYING AREAS AND PROTECTED VALLEYS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY COULD GET DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT.

WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER SOUTH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MID 30S
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...LOW LYING AREAS AND PROTECTED VALLEYS
COULD GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND
DAYBREAK.

DUE TO THE REMAINING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
AREA...LIGHT FROST WILL BE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EACH MORNINGS.

$$

[JDawg512]

But it looks like the PDO will still be positive right? Could be reading it wrong but would favor a +PDO during a La Niña.

[Ntxw]

Yes the warm water above La Nina off Mexico is +PDOish. Its very unusual because Ninas create a stripe of cold waters up there (-PDO)

[TarrantWx]

Yes the warm water above La Nina off Mexico is +PDOish. Its very unusual because Ninas create a stripe of cold waters up there (-PDO)

Could this coming La Nina erode the warm waters off the coast of Mexico turning this +PDO into a -PDO very much like our current El Nino eroded the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska? Are there any analag years of a La Nina with a +PDO? What would that mean in terms of weather here and the rest of the country?

[Ntxw]

Could this coming La Nina erode the warm waters off the coast of Mexico turning this +PDO into a -PDO very much like our current El Nino eroded the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska? Are there any analag years of a La Nina with a +PDO? What would that mean in terms of weather here and the rest of the country?

The Nina could alter it and eventually will. Especially if it is a stronger Nina, but that won't happen until next year in 2017. Most guidance agree on the overall +PDO through most of this year. 2016 started off with the very strong +PDO and it will take large scale shifts over the entire NPAC basin to alter it vs a regional thing such as the gulf of Alaska. There are +PDO Nina's clustered mostly in the 1980s. Most notably 1983 and 1985.

Winters that go from Nino to NIna are seldom boring, so I doubt we will get a repeat of this last winter next year

[Texas Snowman]

What great spring weather!

Nice, crisp 34 degree low this morning here in Denison. Makes you feel alive and invigorated!

Looks like we're going to flirt with freezing again tonight.

[Ptarmigan]

Could this coming La Nina erode the warm waters off the coast of Mexico turning this +PDO into a -PDO very much like our current El Nino eroded the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska? Are there any analag years of a La Nina with a +PDO? What would that mean in terms of weather here and the rest of the country?

The Nina could alter it and eventually will. Especially if it is a stronger Nina, but that won't happen until next year in 2017. Most guidance agree on the overall +PDO through most of this year. 2016 started off with the very strong +PDO and it will take large scale shifts over the entire NPAC basin to alter it vs a regional thing such as the gulf of Alaska. There are +PDO Nina's clustered mostly in the 1980s. Most notably 1983 and 1985.

Winters that go from Nino to NIna are seldom boring, so I doubt we will get a repeat of this last winter next year

1988-1989 had a strong La Nina in warm PDO. Strong El Nino occured in cool PDO in 1972-1973.

[Brent]

Could this coming La Nina erode the warm waters off the coast of Mexico turning this +PDO into a -PDO very much like our current El Nino eroded the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska? Are there any analag years of a La Nina with a +PDO? What would that mean in terms of weather here and the rest of the country?

The Nina could alter it and eventually will. Especially if it is a stronger Nina, but that won't happen until next year in 2017. Most guidance agree on the overall +PDO through most of this year. 2016 started off with the very strong +PDO and it will take large scale shifts over the entire NPAC basin to alter it vs a regional thing such as the gulf of Alaska. There are +PDO Nina's clustered mostly in the 1980s. Most notably 1983 and 1985.

Winters that go from Nino to NIna are seldom boring, so I doubt we will get a repeat of this last winter next year

The early/mid 80s had a string of relatively early ending summers... 1981-1984 all had the last 100 in August and 1983 and 1985 dot the record books for cool records in September... kind of interesting.

Oh and back to current events... the 0z GFS has upper 30s for Easter Sunday morning after a high of 80 on Saturday and a freeze at DFW on March 31st. It has been pretty consistent with a major cold snap at least as cold as this one for awhile now in the March 31st-April 2nd timeframe.

[wxman57]

Terrible start to "spring". Bitterly cold temps and hurricane-force winds (or so it seemed on our bikes yesterday). Give me a nice 100F July afternoon any day over Saturday or Sunday. We were nearly blown over while riding through downtown Houston yesterday afternoon. Winds were really accelerating between the buildings. This coming weekend looks a good bit warmer.

[Texas Snowman]

A BEAUTIFUL 33 degrees this morning in D-Town!

And a refreshingly brisk breeze all weekend. Where do I order more?!?

[Ntxw]

Big anomalous -EPO signal next week. Gardeners be on the lookout. The 1-2 sigma dip we had this week brought a pretty persistent chill the last few days for a meager pattern. Next week is progged at 2-3 sigma dive of the EPO. The surface cold loading index is having its way

[Ralph's Weather]

A nice frosty 29 at my house this morning. It was so nice doing yard work yesterday with temps in the 50s and a good breeze. Sounds like this may not be the last freeze either.

[srainhoutx]

35F at the house in NW Harris County with a light frost all the way to the ground. Had to turn the heater back on this morning. Yuck!

[aggiecutter]

What great spring weather!

Nice, crisp 34 degree low this morning here in Denison. Makes you feel alive and invigorated!

Looks like we're going to flirt with freezing again tonight.

Looks like Nacodoches was the winner last night.

[vbhoutex]

35F at the house in NW Harris County with a light frost all the way to the ground. Had to turn the heater back on this morning. Yuck!

Managed 37F "in town" at my abode. Heater has been on for a day already.

[wxman57]

This is a heck of a way to run a "spring". Fortunately, we can't trust the GFS that far out. I'm sure the actual temps will be up into the mid 80s or higher.

[Tireman4]

Glorious day. My gracious. Just glorious. I am ramped up for my run at 5 pm. My goodness. Yesterday's run was the fastest in two weeks. ( last two miles at a 7:40 pace.. )