Texas Spring 2016

[Ntxw]

PEOPLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW AND...

Silence

SPC isn't too strong with their wording and a lot depends if we can clear out and really warm up. Thunderstorms looks likely but other factors must come together perfectly for a severe weather outbreak. Probably better to our east. The gulf isn't that warm compared to big severe weather years. Scattered storms early in the day may effect what happens later.

[gboudx]

There's talk of sinking air over the Metroplex from organized storms forecasted to the east. If that happens, it may not matter if storms fire along the dryline out west.

[Ntxw]

The dryline won't be impeded by a cold front though. So anything that does fire off from it will likely be very severe. Just a matter of coverage and clearing, it's been pretty cloudy most of today as will be tomorrow. That's a hindrance to instability as most guidance is near 100% cloud cover.

[TheProfessor]

I'm worried about parts of Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow, The latest GFS and NAM have them clearing out in the afternoon tomorrow.

[Brent]

Day 1 enhanced for 30% hatched hail for DFW and points east... hatched tornado is in LA... just a 5% tornado for OK/TX

[HockeyTx82]

Any changes in thoughts from the latest model runs? How could/will the early rain help us later by keeping severe weather away aside from working over the atmosphere?

CBS 11 had us in a moderate risk now and seems to be pushing hard that severe weather is both on board for this AM and PM.

[vbhoutex]

Any changes in thoughts from the latest model runs? How could/will the early rain help us later by keeping severe weather away aside from working over the atmosphere?

CBS 11 had us in a moderate risk now and seems to be pushing hard that severe weather is both on board for this AM and PM.

Looking at it from down here in Houston without the advantage of OCM input from your area and based on Jeff Lindner's morning email, it would appear that your area will be the one to watch for anything that may form. We are capped around 850db here and have been having steady drizzle since yesterday-basically no instability in our area until you get about halfway to DFW. Jeff doesn't appear to be to strong on severe for your area either.

[gboudx]

Here's jeff's update if you want to read it:

A large storm system over the SW US is placing TX under a favorable moist flow.

Several factors coming together to produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 36 hours…with the best chances for thunderstorms and severe weather over N TX. Upper level jet carving into TX this morning on the SE side of the upper trough over the SW US starting to leading to large scale ascent over the central and NW part of the state. Strong warm air advection pattern at the surface has built a very moist low level air mass with dewpoints running in the low 70’s across much of the region. Weak lift is helping to generate widespread drizzle and a few light showers under a fairly strong capping inversion around 850mb. High dewpoint air mass over the cooler shelf water sis resulting in sea fog along the coast.

Not much hope for breaks in the think low level deck today with a good chance of drizzle and light rain continuing through much of the day. This will greatly hamper the build up of instability in the low levels and certainly help maintain the strong cap aloft. Incoming short wave aimed at central and N TX early this afternoon will help to bring additional lift across the region, but think the cap will hold south of I-10. For areas north of I-10 the cap does weaken and convection allowing models indicate strong to possibly severe thunderstorms over N TX building S to SSW into the northern sections of SE TX in the 200-700pm time period. This threat area would be mainly north of a line from College Station to Huntsville to Lake Livingston. Main threats would be large hail and a couple of damaging wind gusts. Think this is a very conditional risk and an isolated threat.

For areas south of the line mentioned above mainly light showers streaming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will be possible.

Thursday:
Surface cool front will move southward across TX tonight into Thursday with likely the development of a few showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Meso scale models do not show much along the boundary on Thursday, but with somewhat favorable upper level flow aloft and good moisture in place can’t rule out some development…but we will still have capping aloft to contend with.

Friday-Saturday:
Front should progress to the coast or into the nearshore waters Friday into Saturday. With the main upper trough still lingering over the SW US/ N MX, expect a fair amount of mid and high level moisture to pour NE across the TX coastal plains while at the surface low level dry air mass pushes southward. May need to up rain chances on Friday especially if a couple of disturbances run across the area, but mid level based precipitation may have a difficult time reaching the ground depending on how much dry air moves in at the surface.

[Ntxw]

Shear isn't that impressive so far, steady light rain so 100% cloud cover by guidance is good. Tornado threat should be limited and isolated I think. Hail and wind will be determined what fires off dry line if any at all. Mostly east.

[Texas Snowman]

Latest visible sat shot...

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, in reference to the discussion a few pages back, here is Fort Worth NWS' write-up about the December 1983 freeze:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dec1983%20

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, in reference to the discussion a few pages back, here is Fort Worth NWS' write-up about the December 1983 freeze:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dec1983%20

I've mentioned this before, I'll mention it again. I have no idea why, but the NWS write-up (Fort Worth / 30th Anniversary in 2013) does not contain an accurate snowfall map for the Red River Valley.

I was a senior in high school in 1983, a bona fide weather geek (even thinking about a possible career as a Met) and we had far more than a trace of snow here along the Red River from the Dec. 15-16 storm.

Something in the neighborhood of 5+ inches fell here in Grayson County and I even had difficulty driving home from work on that Thursday night (Dec. 15th) as it fell (it was my first real experience driving in heavy snow).

Despite the heavy snowfall, we had to go to school anyway (Friday, Dec. 16th was the last day of classes before the Christmas break) and the day was spent having massive snowball fights in the parking lot of Denison High (between classes and tests, of course! )

For what it's worth, here is a photo that more accurately describes the snowfall event in mid December 1983:

[Ntxw]

Watch the hail threat on any cells that fire off the dry line. Could be some big hail.

[TheProfessor]

Watch that storm out near Breckenridge, if it strengthens it could take a right turn.

[EF-5bigj]

Well those storms look pretty potent now.

[lukem]

The Breckenridge storm just went right over our ranch. My mom is out there and said it was pretty intense. Big hail and wind, and we had 1/2 an inch of rain in about 30 minutes. She thought our storage garage may have been hit by lightning.

[lukem]

Actually, we ended up with an inch of rain in less than an hour.

[EF-5bigj]

That is very impressive rainfall and it sounds like the storm has a very strong updraft with large hail like that.

[WeatherNewbie]

Sun just broke through on the Carrollton/Plano border. Hope the instability doesn't start ramping up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winds have picked up quite a bit down here in SL. LLJ kicking up.