Texas Spring 2016

[Tireman4]

weatherunderground.com

Nope. I would need a weather station for that. For that, I would need money
Lol

[weatherdude1108]

Friends and family in the Houston area have been sending me pics. Wow. I hope everyone stays safe!

We got bypassed by most of the rain, we had 1.7" in the last 24 hrs

4.52 inches since yesterday here.

[lrak]

What a way to end tax season, rain and thunder! I haven't had a day off in 21 days. Dang IRS I despise them and all the crap they put tax and financial advisors through just to get a tax return out. I did not go to college to fill out health insurance requirements! Sorry for the vent Rain Rain Rain

[EF-5bigj]

Prayers for you guys in TX.

[Shoshana]

Friends and family in the Houston area have been sending me pics. Wow. I hope everyone stays safe!

We got bypassed by most of the rain, we had 1.7" in the last 24 hrs

4.52 inches since yesterday here.

What a difference a few miles makes!

[gpsnowman]

Nice looking squall line due in tomorrow morning. I always enjoy morning thunderstorms, although rush hour could be a disaster on Wednesday.

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth discussion...

-----

000
FXUS64 KFWD 190920
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A QLCS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LARGELY BE INCONSEQUENTIAL ASIDE FROM AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME MIST REDUCING
VISIBILITIES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S DESPITE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HOLDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. HOWEVER...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INHIBIT WIND SHEAR VALUES
ACROSS THIS AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD BE LARGELY UNCAPPED WHICH MEANS IF ANY
LIFT MANAGES TO OVERSPREAD NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING. WITH BULK SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KTS...THIS WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF A BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
THREAT. HAVE LEFT POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SINCE OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A QLCS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING RESULTING
FROM A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. A SW-NE
ORIENTED SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER NORTH TEXAS AFTER 9PM...REACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM...AND EXIT OUR EASTERN
ZONES BY MID-MORNING. HAVE THROWN OUT THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SIDED WITH CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY WITHIN TIME RANGE...INCLUDING THE 4KM NAM AND TT WRF.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS LINE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...BUT A SEVERE STORM THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
LINE EITHER. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD
OF THIS LINE...SOME OF WHICH MAY MANAGE TO STILL BE SURFACE BASED
OVERNIGHT. THE DIFFERENCE FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRESENCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SHEAR OWING TO A DEVELOPING 850MB LOW
IN SOUTHERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850MB
FLOW OF AROUND 25KTS ACROSS NORTH TX. WHILE THE WIND PROFILES
WON`T BE TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AM
CONCERNED ANY STRONG SEGMENTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
LINE COULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A
BRIEF SPIN-UP QLCS TORNADO. WHILE BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL DON`T
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORMS...BACKED INFLOW WINDS
COULD RESULT IN 0-1 SHEAR OF 10-20KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE. THE TT WRF SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS POTENTIAL AND IS
ADVERTISING LOCALLY HIGHER EHI VALUES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LINE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20...AND ALSO MAINTAINING A FEW UPDRAFT
HELICITY TRACKS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THIS TIME FRAME BECOMES INCLUDED
IN THE NEW DATA FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.

THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
QLCS HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS VERY QUICK TO
RECOVER THE ENVIRONMENT BY BRINGING SOUTH WINDS BACK TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH SBCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. WHILE THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS
OVERDONE...THE GFS ISN`T TERRIBLY DIFFERENT ADVERTISING SBCAPE OF
2000-2500J/KG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT IN PLACE SINCE THE SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING QLCS WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL LIKELY BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH SHEAR
LESS THAN 30KTS IN PLACE YET AGAIN...BUT WOULD STILL BE CAPABLE
OF A BORDERLINE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL WE SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
ANTICIPATED SQUALL LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL...FINALLY...MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST ON THURSDAY BUT NOT BEFORE RESULTING IN ONE FINAL FORECAST
CHALLENGE. THE GFS AND NAM LAG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING
TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.THE LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AND THUS KEEPS
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. IF THE GFS/NAM ARE
CORRECT...THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE RAINY/STORMY AS THIS COMPLEX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
MCS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST TT WRF. HAVE LEFT
POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAYS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NICE BREAK AS WE FINALLY SEE
PERSISTENT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S EACH DAY. THIS IS OWING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT...THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS AND CANADIAN DIG THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THIS SYSTEM
IN TWO PHASES...A LEAD PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER CUTOFF LOW BY MIDWEEK. THE
GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A DRYLINE TO MOVE WEST INTO
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP AND VERY
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 90 DEGREES FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-35. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP US MILD AND DRY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT BRING A DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS SETUP TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ACTIVE
WEATHER REGARDLESS AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE/NO CHANGE IN THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

STALLEY

[WeatherGuesser]

I guess my package being shipped out of Katy won't be moving for a few days. No problem, not an important item. I'm sure they have bigger worries right now.

[Ntxw]

All this MCS/QLCS talk from FW is more indicative of a May than April pattern

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.AVIATION...
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND AROUND CLL AND UTS WITH SOME MVFR DECKS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SHRA POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE MIGHT END
UP BEING BETWEEN IAH AND GLS. ANTICIPATE A BREAK TONIGHT WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE LOWERING OF AREA CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
IFR LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG MORNING ON THE WARNING DESK YESTERDAY...BACK AT THE
FORECAST DESK ONE MORE TIME. AREA RADAR ARE RATHER QUIET COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
OVERALL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY FROM BRENHAM TO COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 70
DEWPOINTS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY STILL ADVECT INLAND DESPITE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT THE KHGX 88D SHOW
30-35KTS JUST 2000-5000FT AGL VEERING FROM S TO SW WHICH SUGGESTS
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALOFT LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WHILE A RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SEEM ON TRACK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

TODAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A RECOVERY DAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT AS
NOTED WITH THE VAD WIND PROFILE...COULD SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD BE ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IT IS
HARD TO TELL IF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING ANY OF THESE FEATURES OR
NOT. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN INLAND. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ALONG A
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. WRF-ARW HAS A HINT OF THIS
AS WELL BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED. RIGHT NOW THINK A GENERAL 40-60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. JUST WORRIED THAT IF SOME OF THESE STORMS GET A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED THEN WE WILL SEE RAIN RATES BACK IN THE 1-2 INCH AN HOUR
RANGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.6-1.7
INCHES. BASED ON UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO A LOCALIZED SPOT OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT IS FOR THIS REASON WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE GFS/NAM AND THEN HIGH RES WRF MODELS WANT TO BRING A
SQUALL LINE/MCS INTO SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES GOING UP TO 1.8 INCHES WITH S/SW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND 20-30KTS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE RAINFALL. HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT AT
LEAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 67 78 66 79 / 40 40 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 67 78 67 81 / 50 40 70 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 70 76 70 78 / 50 30 60 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42

[wxman57]

Measured 7.54" yesterday and another tenth of an inch or two overnight. Don't need any more rain for now, thanks.

[davidiowx]

Measured 7.54" yesterday and another tenth of an inch or two overnight. Don't need any more rain for now, thanks.

What are your thoughts for later this afternoon into tomorrow morning for our area?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like the sun may be coming out in SE Tx, this is not a good thing at all.

[wxman57]

Measured 7.54" yesterday and another tenth of an inch or two overnight. Don't need any more rain for now, thanks.

What are your thoughts for later this afternoon into tomorrow morning for our area?

I'm not overly impressed with the dynamics of the situation. Nothing remotely close to what happened yesterday. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms (mostly Thursday) might be about it.

[TheProfessor]

These past few days have been great, but today has been perfect, it's been warm and cloudy and the humidity hasn't been to high or low. The only complaint about the past few days is that I'm not used to a long periods of dry weather during this time of year. We had about 5-7 days of 20% humidity.

[Annie Oakley]

God bless you Houstonians.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storms popping up near Westbury/ Brays Bayou area now. Here we go. That said, they dont seem to be holding intensity well. Good news

[Annie Oakley]

LIVE: KHOU 11 Weather Coverage

http://www.khou.com/news/local/video/wa ... /142442630

[wxman57]

Storms popping up near Westbury/ Brays Bayou area now. Here we go. That said, they dont seem to be holding intensity well. Good news

Looks like about 1/2" so far in the Brays Bayou watershed. Not enough to raise the bayou significantly. Possibly could cause some minor street flooding, given the saturated ground.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storms popping up near Westbury/ Brays Bayou area now. Here we go. That said, they dont seem to be holding intensity well. Good news

Looks like about 1/2" so far in the Brays Bayou watershed. Not enough to raise the bayou significantly. Possibly could cause some minor street flooding, given the saturated ground.

You think this storm is a bit of a sea breeze like storm or is a foreshadowing of whats next to come. Almost looks like a bit of a boundary running from Bay City up through Houston.

Edit: I may be able to answer that myself. Just looked at my weather station and there is a pop in winds and dewpoint around an hour ago. Winds are coming out of the SSE now in SL.