Texas Spring 2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really hoping this isnt as bad as expected. Whats the best case for less severe weather? Storms pop up early? Overcast in the area? (unlikely)

[Brent]

Really hoping this isnt as bad as expected. Whats the best case for less severe weather? Storms pop up early? Overcast in the area? (unlikely)

I would hope for messy convection or a line... it's less likely any one storm would stand out with big hail or a tornado that way(that's how the big hail happened on April 11th too). Not that you can get brief spinups or marginally large hail... but it's usually not at the same level.

[gboudx]

I agree with that... still so many signs of the last hail here.

Yep brent way too much, friends car lot got hit 16 cars and her house...not fun....
Another friend aunts house took a direct hit
We were lucky im just down 78 by firewheel
Im still dealing with the hail claims...i work at sf

It's been unreal really... I live on the east side of Wylie which was the hardest hit and you can't go anywhere without seeing signs of it. Everyone I talk to has a story from it... virtually every house/yard has a tarp somewhere. There's been some improvement with the sunny weather this weekend, but it's still pretty obvious. I've been to several businesses on 78 with north facing windows that still have hail damage on the windows.

You must live east of 78, I'm guessing somewhere off of Brown St. Usually my drive home I turn right on Brown and then turn left on Kreymer back to 78 to bypass the backup of cars at that light. I see the affects everyday with the tarps, vehicles with plastic over the windows, etc. The Diamond Shamrock gas station awning has huge dents in it; almost looks like it was used for cannon practice. It looks like the worst of the storm was north of 544.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z 4km NAM is ominous for DFW. Both SB and ML cape are over 4000, wind profile seems at least sufficient, and supercells are basically erupting over the metroplex between hours 33 and 36.

[Texas Snowman]

Moderate risk southern boundary now down to Red Rivet according to Damon Lane...

[cheezyWXguy]

Moderate risk southern boundary now down to Red Rivet according to Damon Lane...

I wouldn't be surprised to see that line come down the I-20 corridor at some point. SPC has already mentioned the possibility of extending the MDT risk further south and the recent NAM seems to add support for that. Just my opinion though.

[TheProfessor]

18z NAM has 6000 CAPE west of Fort Worth at 0z tomorrow.

Edit: CAP is pretty much gone on NAM at 0z too.

[Brent]

Yep brent way too much, friends car lot got hit 16 cars and her house...not fun....
Another friend aunts house took a direct hit
We were lucky im just down 78 by firewheel
Im still dealing with the hail claims...i work at sf

It's been unreal really... I live on the east side of Wylie which was the hardest hit and you can't go anywhere without seeing signs of it. Everyone I talk to has a story from it... virtually every house/yard has a tarp somewhere. There's been some improvement with the sunny weather this weekend, but it's still pretty obvious. I've been to several businesses on 78 with north facing windows that still have hail damage on the windows.

You must live east of 78, I'm guessing somewhere off of Brown St. Usually my drive home I turn right on Brown and then turn left on Kreymer back to 78 to bypass the backup of cars at that light. I see the affects everyday with the tarps, vehicles with plastic over the windows, etc. The Diamond Shamrock gas station awning has huge dents in it; almost looks like it was used for cannon practice. It looks like the worst of the storm was north of 544.

Yep, you would be correct

and the 12z 4km NAM had a lovely helicity streak right over us.

[EF-5bigj]

The SPC isn't ruling out a high risk well for the area of biggest risk.

[Tireman4]

Classic setup in the Plains. It will be interesting tomorrow..the Storm Chasers will be out in force...meanwhile, back in the holler...( Houston)..

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1037 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AS PER MORNING RADAR LOOPS/SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. SCT SHRA CONTINUING TO DEV-
ELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND BETWEEN GLS BAY AND SABINE PASS.
HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE DAY AS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD. 41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS MOVED
OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. OUR AREA`S NEXT
WEATHER MAKER COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG CENTRAL U.S. STORM
SYSTEM. INSTABILITIES AND LIFT LOOK IMPRESSIVE HERE...AND THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THURSDAY... LOOK FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS IMPULSES BEGIN RIDING ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE NEXT CENTRAL U.S.
AREA MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN HELPS TO BRING OUR AREA`S NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY) ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS AS WE HEAD ON
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SOME
MORE RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH/INTENSITY OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...AND DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL IT IS RECOMMENDED TO KEEP A DAILY EYE ON THE
FORECASTS FOR YOUR AREA. 42

&&

[Yukon Cornelius]

Newest from NWS in Norman.

[HockeyTx82]

Any pro Mets have any thoughts on tomorrow? Lots of people talking about the weather tomorrow here at work so word is getting out. I sure hope nothing happens. I have my safe plans already in place and either way I am going to stick with them. Are we talking just normal spring time storms with supercells or is tomorrow one of those days that we don't see to often? Just trying to read between media hype from social media and the likes and realistic expectations. I value everyone's thoughts and opinions on this site and make decisions based on it.

[Texas Snowman]

You know, I think someone mentioned the other day that 4/27/11 was only a moderate risk several days out. But as the day of the event approached and actually arrived, everything fell into place.

In no way am I saying a 4/27/11 kind of event is going to unfold tomorrow, just that it is rather concerning that the closer we get to Tuesday, the more the data keeps edging towards the possibility of a rather interesting afternoon and evening taking place here in North Texas and Oklahoma.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is it possible the CAPE is so strong that a line of storms will form? Or is the cap so strong its only capable of poking holes in it?

[EF-5bigj]

18z NAM has 6000 CAPE west of Fort Worth at 0z tomorrow.

Edit: CAP is pretty much gone on NAM at 0z too.

well that's not good it seems like the atmosphere has been cooking for days. Those CAPE values are extreme though.

[Ntxw]

Is it possible the CAPE is so strong that a line of storms will form? Or is the cap so strong its only capable of poking holes in it?

It takes more than high cape to form long lived tornadoes or even big ones, though CAPE numbers that large are usually needed. You need low level winds favorable as well. That kind of cape will drop gigantic hail though. In extreme cases, a local environment can spawn a massive tornado however such as Jarrell.

This is not a foolproof set up. It can be explosive but at the same time the cap can bust it the other way with little. Or if the dryline doesnt fire and waits for upper forcing storms may congeal sooner into a line.

[Texas Snowman]

@KOCOdamonlane -- Oklahoma: Schools are beginning to announce closures because of tomorrow's severe risk. Stay tuned...

[1900hurricane]

I actually think there's a better chance that there'll be too many storms in a messy storm mode than there being a cap bust tomorrow. Guidance has been pretty consistently convecting somewhere across N TX sometime a little prior to 00Z. Interestingly enough, shear vectors over the dryline are actually better on this side of the Red River than they are anywhere else not near the triple point. Low level shear is nothing really to write home about, but in the face of such instability could be enough to support some really nasty supercells. I think hail will be the primary threat, but tornadoes are possible too, particularly if storms can keep themselves from ganging up on themselves and stay isolated for a few hours.

[Jarodm12]

I look at all of the models from the RGEM to the WRF to the NAM to even the GFS shows explosive development in north Texas, I wonder if people aren't looking at the same model depictions I am, where is the discrepancy? I wish a pro MET would weigh in.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM 4km looks even more favorable than the 12z...