ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

3 weeks away until the start of the ATL hurricane season. Looking at CDAS temperatures, looks like 3.4 will return back to moderate next week.

Trades also don't look strong enough for a decent La Nina event yet.

[stormwise]

3.4 1.1 nudging 1.2. atm.

[cycloneye]

El Nino doesn't want to go away fast.

[Kingarabian]

The ocean surface still has a very healthy El-Nino look.

[NDG]

Modoki.

[Darvince]

Imagine if the broken CFS turns out to be right...

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Modoki.

Impressive nonetheless - that this event is still rolling.

[NDG]

This same time in '98 it still looked EL Nino, though it was still more east biased, the reason why I think that season took so long to get going in the Atlantic.



May '83 it was still boiling at Nino 1+2, Nino 3 and parts of Nino 3.4



Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 stayed very warm through the majority of the Atlantic season.

[Kingarabian]

But the MDR SST's in the EPAC for those years were nowhere as warm as they currently are.

[NDG]

But the MDR SST's in the EPAC for those years were nowhere as warm as they currently are.

Which tells me that the SSTs at the EPAC's MDR does not have to be that warm to have an active season, a great example was '83 & early '98.

[Ntxw]

Stays 0.8C this week. Nino 1+2 is the only big shift to 0.4C

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 5/9/16 has Nino 3.4 at +0.8C and that is the same as last week. ONI is down to +1.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Finally some notable trades near and west of the dateline. A good sign that it's shifting from just weakening the El Nino towards more development of La Nina at the surface.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, you think the transition to La-Nina will finally enter the rapid phase?

[NDG]

The ECMWF is also forecasting easterly trades getting going across the equatorial pacific.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, you think the transition to La-Nina will finally enter the rapid phase?

I think so. More consistent +SOI as well. Also the IO is really ramping up which will effect the SOI. Also as some promets have tweeted -AAM across the NHEM will favor trades. But the southern hemisphere will remain +AAM which will keep Nino 1+2 from really cranking cold. The preconditioning for this Nina is not as good as 2007 or 2010 as sea level anomalies are still raised in the PDO region. Also the far equatorial WPAC is still below SSH's. For the Nina to mature that would need to rise. I'm going to guess between -1 to -1.4C

[stormwise]

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, you think the transition to La-Nina will finally enter the rapid phase?

I think so. More consistent +SOI as well. Also the IO is really ramping up which will effect the SOI. Also as some promets have tweeted -AAM across the NHEM will favor trades. But the southern hemisphere will remain +AAM which will keep Nino 1+2 from really cranking cold. The preconditioning for this Nina is not as good as 2007 or 2010 as sea level anomalies are still raised in the PDO region. Also the far equatorial WPAC is still below SSH's. For the Nina to mature that would need to rise. I'm going to guess between -1 to -1.4C

Thank you.

The upcoming PDO reading will also be interesting. The PDO in 1998 stayed very positive up until May - just like this year. Then it dove sharply into negative territory.

[Kingarabian]

From WU:

Leftover warm water in Pacific Ocean fueled massive El Niño

A new study provides insight into how the current El Niño, one of the strongest on record, formed in the Pacific Ocean. The new research finds easterly winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean stalled a potential El Niño in 2014 and left a swath of warm water in the central Pacific. The presence of that warm water stacked the deck for a monster El Niño to occur in 2015, according to the study's authors.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 145519.htm

I'm wondering if the same can be said for this La-Nina event if the cool waters fail to surface. That means 2017 could have a record setting La Nina and help make for a nastier ATL season.

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[Dean_175]

^^ Anything is possible, but I don't think it is likely. 1984-1985 is a potential analog for what you would be talking about (with La Nina not developing this year). A full La Nina failed to develop in 1983- and cool neutral transitioned into a La Nina in 1984. That La Nina ended up being weak. Similar with 1967-68. There has never been a "very strong" La Nina - with ONI reaching -2.0C , the closest was in 1973 (during a cool PDO era). I think that the PDO would have to become at least somewhat negative for that to occur anytime soon.

There is also somewhat of an asymmetry in the behavior of El Nino vs La Nina. La Ninas often reoccur multiple years in a row- and if a La Nina is going to become strong eventually, it usually begins the year following an El Nino- not cool neutral.