Florida's Hurricane Drought

[TheStormExpert]

Well it's been 10+ years since the last hurricane slammed into Florida. On the morning of October 24th, 2005 Hurricane Wilma barreled into the SW Coast of Florida around Cape Romano, FL with winds of 120mph and a pressure of around 950mb crossing the state in about 3-4 hours and exiting the East Coast around Jupiter, FL.

Since then Florida has been extremely lucky and very fortunate to go this long without a hurricane or even major hurricane strike anywhere throughout the state which has 1,260 miles of coastline, the most of any state along the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean in the U.S.

The Weather Channel today published this article on their website concerning Florida's Hurricane Drought and why it's extremely impressive. The title to me seems a little intriguing and concerning if you ask me.

Florida's Lucky, Record-Setting Hurricane Drought Will End, Perhaps This Season
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/florida-hurricane-drought-may2016

[gatorcane]

Interesting read. It is quite remarkable this hurricane drought Florida is in especially Southern Florida. Curiously, the article does not mention the very active cycle Florida experienced between the 1920s through 1940s. No doubt complacency is widespread across Florida as we continue to see multi-million dollar homes being built in flood zones and along the coastline. I think if we ever end up back in the active pattern, you will see significant declines in real estate value and folks exiting in droves:

[northjaxpro]

My huge concern: Complacency.

This extremely lucky nearly 11 year drought from major hurricane strikes across the peninsula has placed many people under a false sense of security. This streak will unfortunately come to an end and this could be the year. I am anticipating much more in the way of tropical cyclones developing closer to home with conditions becoming more conducive in the Gulf of Mexico and down into the Caribbean Sea.

[terstorm1012]

Florida's added 2 million new residents since 2005. Everyone's right to be concerned.

[WeatherGuesser]

Between births and the people moving in from other countries and northern states, think of the number of people that have never experienced one before.

[terstorm1012]

I will say I know quite a few of those new residents are from Puerto Rico, so they at least have some experience. I think something like a thousand Puerto Ricans a week have moved to Florida in the last few years--500,000 total over the last ten. But it's a good point, lots of people are moving to coastal cities and states that have no experience with hurricanes other than what they might see on TV.

[TheStormExpert]

Personally in my honest opinion I'd be really shocked if the Florida hurricane drought is not broken sometime within the next three seasons! To go over 10.5 years without a hurricane hit of any Category in Florida is EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE in my opinion.

So if I were anywhere in Florida(not just S. FL) I'd prepare each and every season as if you knew you were going to get struck by a hurricane that season!

Not trying to scare anyone, just stating my honest thoughts and opinions.



The image above just shows how lucky Florida has been to dodge all 66 hurricanes since Wilma(including Alex 2016). That DOUBLES the last streak of going 33 consecutive hurricanes between Florida hurricane hits!

[Nimbus]

There has been some short term global warming since the 1960's.
It is possible that could have changed the environment in the tropics.
For example persistent TUTTs parked over Bermuda that produce higher shear values.
TUTTs are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause.

Chaotic heat dissipation systems are not organized like hurricanes but would thrive with global warming.
We all know about the narrow window of conditions that are necessary for a hurricane to stay organized well enough to reach category 5.

I'd be surprised if someone hadn't researched this for their doctoral thesis.

[Janie2006]

My huge concern: Complacency.

This extremely lucky nearly 11 year drought from major hurricane strikes across the peninsula has placed many people under a false sense of security. This streak will unfortunately come to an end and this could be the year. I am anticipating much more in the way of tropical cyclones developing closer to home with conditions becoming more conducive in the Gulf of Mexico and down into the Caribbean Sea.

Bingo.

I don't think that anyone of age who experienced it will ever forget 2005, a true anomaly in terms of tropical seasons. That being said, *any* given year can be the year for your own personalized Andrew, Camille, Katrina, etcetera. I've always found it so very frustrating that people have such short historical memories. If I were to move across the country to Maine, for example, I'd *darn* well know about the weather in that location. I've also found the "Awww, man, it ain't gonna be nuttin'" attitude among the newbies and the inexperienced to be very frustrating as well. Just one, brother, and you'll understand. If you survive.

Evidently 10 years is all it takes for people to forget what these bad mammajammas can do.

It's overdue, and streaks can't last forever.

*drops mic*

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

In Tampa Bay, folks are quick to say they either experienced local hit hurricanes already, or 'they never hit here". Both views are wrong. It is unlikely anyone alive even remembers the last major to hit this area back in the 1920's. It will be a very sad state of affairs when we do finally get hit, as so many waterfront and flood zone properties are of older construction, not at all raised, and will suffer big damage. All those little homes built in the 50's and 60's are mostly occupied by older folks on fixed income too. -not rich folks, just older retired ones in smaller homes. They didn't evacuate when there was the threat of Charley, and they likely won't then next big threat. *sigh

[bg1]

Wow, 66 hurricanes and Florida has had only ONE of them make landfall at any time in their lives? I would've thought this to be crazy if you'd told me this in 2004 or 05.

A bit off topic, but only 4 US Gulf Coast hurricanes and no majors since Wilma? Gustav '08 weakened quickly to 95 kts in the Gulf, Ike '08 grew in size instead of intensity, landfalling short of 100 kts also, Isaac '12 struggled at 65-70 kts (?), and I don't remember the other... Wow.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow, 66 hurricanes and Florida has had only ONE of them make landfall at any time in their lives? I would've thought this to be crazy if you'd told me this in 2004 or 05.

Yeah most in FLorida back after the devastating 2004 and 2005 seasons thought Florida was entering another active hurricane landfall period for the state similar to 1916-1965 like the image above gatorcane posted.

[gatorcane]

There has been some short term global warming since the 1960's.
It is possible that could have changed the environment in the tropics.
For example persistent TUTTs parked over Bermuda that produce higher shear values.
TUTTs are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause.

Chaotic heat dissipation systems are not organized like hurricanes but would thrive with global warming.
We all know about the narrow window of conditions that are necessary for a hurricane to stay organized well enough to reach category 5.

I'd be surprised if someone hadn't researched this for their doctoral thesis.

Interesting theory and you may be on to something. It's interesting how there was so much activity impacting Florida during the 30 years in the 1920s through 1940s. But there really has been nothing remotely close as far as frequency of hits since then. If anything it seems more and more storms are recurving well east of Florida. Just look at the tracks the last 10 years especially since 2009. I can't find so many recurving storms season after season for such a long span when I go back and look at all the historical tracks the last 100+ years. Sooner or later the luck has to run out here.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A little personal story from my own area. Back in 2014 when Hurricane Arthur, as a transitioning system, severely impacted the area with a sting jet that brought hurricane force winds and torrential rains well inland. Areas of New Brunswick, Maine and to a lesser degree Nova Scotia & PEI lost power for nearly three weeks. The lineups in the few areas that maintained power along with the traffic was insane during this period. I still remember people wondering around saying how could this happen here even though the news clearly stated multiple times after the initial event that this was the worst tropical system in twenty years (hurricanes in 1963, 1969, 1954, 1944, 1938 & two in 1920s' were far worse). In other words Hurricane Gloria left parts of the region without electricity (once again primarily Maine & New Brunswick) for a comparable time period in 1985, within living memory of all but the young. The only thing truly unusual about Arthur was that it struck so early in the year - first week of July. Although an earlier system, that was even strong, did hit the region back in third week of June 1959.

Bottom line people have short memories and one should always remain on their toes, because it only takes one to ruin your year.

[terstorm1012]

that persistent TUTT theory is very interesting. I will have to look into it. I'd be very interesting in the probability of that occurring (and a hurricane-prone state avoiding hurricane impacts for 10 years) under certain conditions.

[Nimbus]

Any theory about persistent TUTTs is likely to enjoy prior art.
These aren't condo developers on Miami beach discussing their next project..



http://www.space.com/23708-jupiter-grea ... evity.html

[wxman57]

Personally in my honest opinion I'd be really shocked if the Florida hurricane drought is not broken sometime within the next three seasons! To go over 10.5 years without a hurricane hit of any Category in Florida is EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE in my opinion.

So if I were anywhere in Florida(not just S. FL) I'd prepare each and every season as if you knew you were going to get struck by a hurricane that season!

Not trying to scare anyone, just stating my honest thoughts and opinions.

http://i66.tinypic.com/vy86fb.jpg

The image above just shows how lucky Florida has been to dodge all 66 hurricanes since Wilma(including Alex 2016). That DOUBLES the last streak of going 33 consecutive hurricanes between Florida hurricane hits!

I notice at least one U.S. hurricane is missing on that graphic - Dolly, which hit south Texas in 2008.

[Hurricaneman]

Trust me, once the hurricanes start coming back to Florida they'll come in numbers which is why one must not forget the 1916 through 1966 time period as that was a very busy time for hurricanes in Florida

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