
Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific 

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- WPBWeather
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific
You are right again, NDG.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific
At this point this really doesn't mean much.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific
It's a given considering that each year we have that gulf stream storm.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Just for the record, nothing new with instability in the tropical Atlantic, it's low as usual.


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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
The Azore's high has been almost non existing the past few days and forecasted to stay weak over the next few days.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
SSTs continue to be warmer than normal across much of the Atlantic MDR. Note the area between the Lesser Antilles and Africa which looks noticeably above normal.


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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
looks like 2-3C above normal in the EPAC though
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Despite a neutral to negative NAO over the past 4 weeks or so, a strong mid level ridge over the central Atlantic was present, which in the past few days pushed westward closer to the NE US.




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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
The PDO is still positive but not as much as it was which could be less of a negative in the coming months
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Hurricaneman wrote:The PDO is still positive but not as much as it was which could be less of a negative in the coming months
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Remember: The PDO is a long term variable. Changes here or there will take sometime to take effect.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Hurricaneman wrote:The PDO is still positive but not as much as it was which could be less of a negative in the coming months
The general horseshoe shape +PDO is still as evident as ever as suggested by CDAS.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Big Sal outbreak ongoing in Tropical Atlantic.


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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Nothing abnormal here Luis June and July typically peak months SAL.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
If anything the SAL is lower in density than usual for this time of year it seems
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
I'm going with a low end Cape Verde season because of the Azores high and that IMO means the MDR east of 50W might have low to no activity but west of there there will be a lot of hurricane activity especially the GOM, Caribbean, East Coast and subtropical Atlantic which means any area in the atlantic not in the MDR are going to probably have a good bit of activity much like 1985
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Joe B. say we may have to watch the Western half of the GoM second half of June.
Joe Bastardi
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West/central gulf place to watch later June, then likely overall lull till real season starts in August
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
How do current forecasted steering trends affect Florida in the mix?
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.
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