2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[gatorcane]

Doesn't look like it would be tropical according to this

http://i.imgur.com/lvmsGWg.png

Not a fan of that nomenclature he's using in this case. A frontal wave implies wave formation occurs along the front, which this is decidedly *not* a case of. It's clearly a separate entity that pulls N to NNE toward FL while shearing out/elongating due to strong upper level winds north of 25N, *then* approaches and/or interacts with a front.

I saw similar incorrect usage of weather terminology by media mets prior to the formation of Bonnie, with several of them referring its pre-cursory disturbance as a "tropical wave". To me, that's tantamount to saying it's from an AEW (African easterly wave). In Bonnie's case, it actually started out as a....drum roll...FRONTAL WAVE! LOL

Good one AJC3

[CourierPR]

Is Cantore a meteorologist via a degree in Broadcast Meteorology, or an actual degree in meteorology?

[crownweather]

Is Cantore a meteorologist via a degree in Broadcast Meteorology, or an actual degree in meteorology?

Actual degreed meteorologist from Lyndon State in Vermont.

[TheStormExpert]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Roughly a 10-30% for a developing tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico this week. Not a big signal out of ECMWF

[gatorcane]

Latest 12Z GFS shows what looks like a weak low that forms from a monsoon gyre that extends SW into the EPAC and into the NW Caribbean. The low moves slowly NW into the southern Gulf in the long-range. Looking at the wind shear, that looks very conducive for development should it verify.

Note: the GFS seems to be very inconsistent with what happens with the gyre. ECMWF is the most bullish of all of the models on development (how ironic) at least as of the 00Z run.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi · 4m4 minutes ago 

GFS nothing like Euro in FLA for early next week. Euro started this back on Friday so good test of its prowess

[gatorcane]

@BigJoeBastardi · 4m4 minutes ago 

GFS nothing like Euro in FLA for early next week. Euro started this back on Friday so good test of its prowess

Indeed good test for sure. Even the overly-optimistic CMC has nothing into Florida. It actually shows something similar to the GFS as of the 12Z run but more to the left (WGOM) and in the long-range so timeframe keeps pushing out.

It is clear models have an incredibly difficult time trying to forecast genesis from a monsoon-like gyre which is expected to develop.

[cycloneye]

After the past GFS upgrade of May 11,ECMWF continues to score bettter. Maybe GFS needs more upgrades.

@BigJoeBastardi · 22m22 minutes ago 

GFS skill scores continue to under perform euro in N Hemisphere, even after recent upgrade. Day 5 example

[Kingarabian]

But for 91E, the GFS is making it a hurricane because of high SSTs and low shear but the Euro is keeping it a weak TS despite favorable conditions. So big tests for the Euro vs GFS in different basins.

[Steve]

Looks like a couple of possible scenarios for the next 2-3 weeks. The first is whether there will be 1 or 2 systems to track. It's also possible that there is one 'bigger' event or 2 'smaller' ones.

The four scenarios I see:

1) There is only one system, and it comes out the WC and moves into the eastern Gulf and crosses Florida toward the end of this weekend/early next week. This is hinted at by EC & GFS.

2) The GFS can't quite handle the timing, and it's a little later into the middle of next week and it's a central/western Gulf system. This is shown by the CMC.

3) You have one system in the eastern Gulf, and the trough split brings a piece of energy into the Western Gulf and lowers pressures there for a potential system a few days later.

4) Nothing happens at all.

It's not usually all that interesting in the first 2 weeks of June. But there will be things to watch for anyway.

[Alyono]

I'm leaning towards nothing. Just too much shear, which I expect to be the case for the entire MDR (including the Caribbean) this year.

I'd be more worried about a significant flood event from this, which the models are showing

[SFLcane]

I'm leaning towards nothing. Just too much shear, which I expect to be the case for the entire MDR (including the Caribbean) this year.

I'd be more worried about a significant flood event from this, which the models are showing

While I do agree this looks like some rain for Florida but it's may 31.

[NDG]

Nothing much from the 12z Euro, other than an elongated weak low/vorticity. So now the Euro is also not very consistent

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is meh on development (though looks like a lot of rain for Florida), but one thing I am wondering is any reason why the GFS is not developing the low that it sends into the Gulf with that kind of wind shear pattern? Isn't that an anticyclone sitting right over the southern Gulf?

[SFLcane]

Gator all I see there is " lots of shear " maybe we get a 3rd named storm but in all it looks like very wet period ahead for South Florida with tons of moisture streaming N out of Caribbean.

[Alyono]

the low is over land and is south of the upper ridge

That setup would likely lead to a major flood for Central America, however. If the low were to sneak over the water, perhaps a Stan type impact could not be ruled out

[gatorcane]

Yep a lot of moisture looks like it will start to build in the SW Caribbean and spread into Central America and NW Caribbean over the next several days. The catalyst for any possible development might be from a westward moving tropical wave flaring up over Eastern Venezuela this evening combined with an MJO pulse that is entering the region. Overall it's looking rather unsettled across the Eastern EPAC through the SW Caribbean this evening.

[gatorcane]

One other thing I noticed is that the 18Z GEFS has 10 ensemble members bringing a low (looks around 1007MB) into South Florida at 138 hours as opposed to 0-2 ensembles members in its prior 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z runs today. Could be a pretty decent rain event for South Florida if this were to verify.

[stormwise]

Nav shear its a good thing the models show a large broad monsoon low those usually are slow to get going. Would not want a low sitting in the CA for any length of time.
https://i.imgsafe.org/e2bce70272.png
114hrs shear
https://i.imgsafe.org/e2ca8b6ae4.png
144hrs shear


https://i.imgsafe.org/e356e88000.png
ec precip FMYERS

[psyclone]

WPC QPF (7 day) shows wet conditions confined to south florida...will be interesting to see if this changes in subsequent days. Of course Texas has us all beat (again).