Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[Alyono]

that Jamaica ob means nothing. It is north of where any low center is

[tarheelprogrammer]

When the convection died out to the west of where the possible low is you could see low level spin it looked like below the higher cloud tops. Just my untrained eyes maybe.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET a little stronger than the 00Z run and has it passing near or just north of the Tampa area:

[TheAustinMan]

When the convection died out to the west of where the possible low is you could see low level spin it looked like below the higher cloud tops. Just my untrained eyes maybe.

I believe that spin was a mid-level circulation at the 500mbar level. CIMSS has highlighted a modestly strong mid-level vorticity in that area. So far scatterometer and low-level vorticity analyses have suggested that there isn't a whole lot of organized spin at the low-levels just yet, and if you look at visible satellite imagery, cumuli are still traveling fairly east to west, with perhaps a slight shift in motion from the kink in the winds from the tropical wave.

[Nimbus]

Early season tropical storms often develop near Panama and move north into the gulf like this.
With the latest burst of convection we are probably getting close to moving this to active storms as an invest.

[cycloneye]

Let's do a quick sample before the 2 PM TWO is out:

I go with 20/70.

[JtSmarts]

I'll go with 30/70

[tarheelprogrammer]

When the convection died out to the west of where the possible low is you could see low level spin it looked like below the higher cloud tops. Just my untrained eyes maybe.

I believe that spin was a mid-level circulation at the 500mbar level. CIMSS has highlighted a modestly strong mid-level vorticity in that area. So far scatterometer and low-level vorticity analyses have suggested that there isn't a whole lot of organized spin at the low-levels just yet, and if you look at visible satellite imagery, cumuli are still traveling fairly east to west, with perhaps a slight shift in motion from the kink in the winds from the tropical wave.

Okay thanks for the input. Mid level fools the untrained sometimes lol. Should be close since NHC experts talked about SW winds being found I think it was.

[TheStormExpert]

30/80 @ the 2pm TWO.

[SeGaBob]

I'm going to guess it stays the same.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I say 20/70 sounds reasonable. Storm looks to be in better shape then they originally thought it would be by now. Shouldn't call it a storm yet but that area in the Caribbean.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is coming together much quicker than expected. I'll say 70/30. Looking forward to a nice rain event next week! On a cruise this weekend so I'll be in the dark with this storm, I don't like that lol.

[RL3AO]

Let's do a quick sample before the 2 PM TWO is out:

I go with 20/70.

I think you're on the right track. Should be an invest here soon.

[lester]

Going conservative with 10/60.

[AutoPenalti]

30/80

[cycloneye]

20%-60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 200 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters over the weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[bamajammer4eva]

If Canadian were correct, the FL Panhandle coast would see some showers just before the system gets shoved due East or even a touch South of East from there.

[tarheelprogrammer]

No invest?

[cycloneye]

Is tagged as Invest 93L Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.