ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

80%-80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, accompanied by a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this low as it moves near the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system is
likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by late
Sunday or on Monday as it moves northeastward toward the Florida
Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[BobHarlem]

When will Tropical Storm warnings go up?

[psyclone]

[quote="BobHarlem"]When will Tropical Storm warnings go up?[/quote
Watches or warnings will almost certainly be posted with the first forecast package when (if) the system is numbered.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami disco

Looking at the heavy rain/flood threat, it appears that the deep
tropical moisture associated with this system will create the
potential for accumulations of rainfall of 3 to 4 inches for the
event. Localized amounts exceeding 4 inches are possible as
well, mainly along the Collier coast.

Another potential threat is tornadic storms. The latest model
guidance is not painting a pretty picture for much of the southern
half of the peninsula of Florida as lower level shear values will
be increasing on Sunday night into Monday across the region. This
could pose an emerging nocturnal tornado threat late Sunday night
into Monday morning, currently with a focus over Southwest
Florida, that grows on Monday to include other portions of
southern and central Florida by Monday afternoon and evening. The
12z GFS offers 0-1 km helicity values exceeding 200 m2/s2 over
southwest Florida on Monday with the 12z ECMWF not much behind
that around 100 m2/s2. There is still great uncertainty with this
system, but the tornadic threat may indeed present itself even if
the storm center tracks further away from the region.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Once it's declared a depression they will probably put up watches/ warnings along the west coast

[MetroMike]

Once it's declared a depression they will probably put up watches/ warnings along the west coast

Yes I concur. Also possible are Flood Watches along the coast and high surf advisories at the least.

[northjaxpro]

When will Tropical Storm warnings go up?

Depends on what Recon finds tomorrow. If they find a closed off defined LLC , then at the very least a TD will be classified and NHC would probably issue advisory package and put up watches/warnings for the west coast of Florida by this time tomorrow at the earliest.

[robbielyn]

bay news 9 in tampabay says colin will be in the atlantic by early tuesday so our weather will be monday.

[robbielyn]

bay news 9 in tampabay says colin will be in the atlantic by early tuesday so our weather will be monday.

They also said watches may go up as early as this evening.

[RL3AO]

bay news 9 in tampabay says colin will be in the atlantic by early tuesday so our weather will be monday.

They also said watches may go up as early as this evening.

Well I guess technically thats correct. Watches won't be going up today, but if they go up tomorrow it will fall within "as early as this evening".

[floridasun78]

what part west coast will see watch?

[BobHarlem]

Ok based on the 8PM outlook and what appears to be happening, did all the 12 and 18z models initialize too far west? It doesn't look like the developing center will go over the Yucatan at all now.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 6 minutes ago

One LLC has already formed beneath & decoupled from the convective mass, moving just south of Cozumel. More may come

[robbielyn]

Tampa NWS says isolated tornado threat for our area will be monday afternoon into the evening spun off in feeder bands. Coastal flooding during high tide in the big bend if that verifies. River and small stream flooding, 25mph sustained windswith higher gusts. Rip current dangers. 4-6 inches of rain with more in training cells areas. They said track and intensity not set in stone yet. Marine winds gusting to gale force. monday overnight colin will cross the peninsula.

[robbielyn]

what part west coast will see watch?

possibly big bend southward including keys I would imagine.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok based on the 8PM outlook and what appears to be happening, did all the 12 and 18z models initialize too far west? It doesn't look like the developing center will go over the Yucatan at all now.

With this storm, it seems the exact location of landfall is not as important as usual, since, given the storm's expected sheared/East lopsided nature, and the system's interaction with the approaching front, effects will be felt far from landfall.

That said, if the system continues to re-consolidate NE, it's safe to assume the landfall point will be shifted a bit east. Still, lets wait until an actual center of circulation has formed before jumping to conclusions.

[psyclone]

what part west coast will see watch?

The NHC seems like they like to weight the breakpoints toward CWA boundaries. My guess would be Suwannee river to bonita beach (Ruskin's CWA coast)...it fits the storm track keeps everything in one CWA.

[sunnyday]

It seems as if things are moving slowly....I wonder if the time of Colin? formation will be moving a day or two later in the week. Any ideas?

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[BobHarlem]

what part west coast will see watch?

possibly big bend southward including keys I would imagine.

East coast (just a guess) FL/GA line south to Sebastian Inlet.

[gatorcane]

Vorticity increasing and seems to be a bit more east