ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DEPRESSION SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Georgia and
northeast Florida from Altahama Sound, Georgia to Flagler Beach,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altahama Sound to Flagler Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the
southeast United States coast later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of the depression
is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East coast, within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions
of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The depression has changed little in organization since this
morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band
of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.

Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for
strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC
forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest
deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or
Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 4:45pm EDT, NOAA / 4:43pm EDT, AF:

[Extratropical94]

TS watches up for parts of the Atlantic coast

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Georgia and
northeast Florida from Altahama Sound, Georgia to Flagler Beach,
Florida.

[NDG]

I think Recon is going to find the COC much closer to the 87th longitude, closer to the area of convection. IMO.

[floridasun78]

I think Recon is going to find the COC much closer to the 87th longitude, closer to the area of convection. IMO.

put nhc still have it same area as early avd

[northjaxpro]

NHC has just issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the Altahama Sound on the Georgia coast south to Flagler Beach, Florida on their 5:00 advisory package.

[RL3AO]

Hey recon found a 25 kt FL wind. Amazing!

[WPBWeather]

I think Recon is going to find the COC much closer to the 87th longitude, closer to the area of convection. IMO.

put nhc still have it same area as early avd

The cumulative precip for the Keys and South Fl has steadily increased all day, so some part of something may head this way.

[NDG]

Hey recon found a 25 kt FL wind. Amazing!

I don't think it sampled the area yet with strongest convection.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 052104
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20160605
205400 2401N 08637W 9664 00338 0046 +228 +222 146023 023 027 004 00
205430 2402N 08636W 9664 00339 0046 +226 +224 150022 023 024 004 00
205500 2403N 08635W 9664 00339 0046 +227 +217 154021 022 022 001 01
205530 2405N 08634W 9663 00341 0046 +227 +219 155022 022 021 000 00
205600 2406N 08633W 9663 00341 //// +225 //// 156021 022 019 000 01
205630 2407N 08632W 9664 00342 0050 +227 +216 158022 022 018 000 00
205700 2409N 08631W 9663 00345 0050 +231 +213 157022 022 016 000 03
205730 2410N 08630W 9662 00347 0053 +223 +218 156022 022 016 000 01
205800 2411N 08629W 9662 00347 0053 +222 +216 156022 023 016 000 01
205830 2413N 08627W 9664 00344 //// +220 //// 157020 022 015 001 05
205900 2414N 08626W 9664 00345 //// +221 //// 152020 021 015 000 01
205930 2415N 08625W 9668 00342 //// +223 //// 148021 022 017 000 01
210000 2416N 08624W 9662 00348 //// +224 //// 144023 024 018 001 01
210030 2418N 08623W 9665 00344 //// +224 //// 139021 023 019 001 01
210100 2419N 08622W 9663 00345 //// +223 //// 146020 021 020 001 01
210130 2420N 08621W 9668 00342 //// +225 //// 143018 019 018 001 01
210200 2421N 08620W 9666 00343 //// +229 //// 136019 019 017 002 01
210230 2423N 08619W 9674 00337 //// +231 //// 134020 022 012 003 05
210300 2422N 08617W 9658 00350 //// +232 //// 143020 022 024 000 01
210330 2422N 08616W 9666 00342 0050 +233 +230 151026 028 031 001 01
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:04pm EDT, AF:

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052113
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20160605
210400 2422N 08614W 9664 00344 //// +229 //// 153030 030 031 001 01
210430 2422N 08613W 9665 00344 //// +223 //// 157033 033 032 001 01
210500 2422N 08611W 9664 00344 0052 +222 +222 157033 034 031 002 01
210530 2422N 08610W 9664 00344 //// +216 //// 157033 034 032 001 01
210600 2421N 08608W 9665 00345 //// +216 //// 157032 033 031 003 01
210630 2421N 08607W 9663 00348 //// +217 //// 160030 032 031 003 01
210700 2421N 08605W 9670 00343 //// +221 //// 160029 030 031 001 01
210730 2421N 08604W 9665 00347 //// +214 //// 161031 032 030 000 01
210800 2421N 08602W 9667 00345 //// +219 //// 159032 032 029 000 01
210830 2420N 08601W 9663 00349 0056 +225 +221 159033 033 028 000 00
210900 2420N 08559W 9666 00345 0055 +223 +222 161031 033 027 001 01
210930 2419N 08558W 9665 00348 0056 +223 +221 163030 031 028 001 01
211000 2419N 08556W 9659 00352 0054 +224 +222 164031 031 027 000 01
211030 2418N 08555W 9666 00345 0055 +225 +222 164031 032 027 001 03
211100 2418N 08553W 9663 00348 //// +222 //// 162029 032 026 000 01
211130 2417N 08552W 9663 00348 0055 +223 +221 164028 029 024 000 01
211200 2417N 08551W 9664 00347 0053 +225 +221 164028 028 024 000 01
211230 2416N 08549W 9663 00347 0053 +232 +211 161027 027 024 001 00
211300 2416N 08548W 9664 00345 0053 +233 +208 162026 026 023 000 00
211330 2415N 08546W 9666 00345 0055 +229 +211 163029 030 023 000 00

[psyclone]

the western most tip of Cuba has been under that firehose of deep convection. Would love to see obs from that area right on the beach in a region of onshore flow. they've got to be getting some gusty winds and the rain totals must be decent.

[floridasun78]

i looking at glevel3 their good line storm west keywest but stay in gulf

[AJC3]

As an aside, a C-130 Herc was landing at KMLB as I was out getting gas. KMLB and KCOF (Patrick Air Force Base near Cocoa Beach) both routinely have Hercs in and out of there, but seeing it made we wonder if they might stage there for one or two of the ATLC missions.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052123
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 36 20160605
211400 2415N 08545W 9664 00347 0055 +228 +212 162031 031 023 000 00
211430 2414N 08543W 9663 00348 0054 +233 +216 159029 031 021 000 00
211500 2414N 08542W 9664 00347 0054 +233 +217 161027 028 020 002 00
211530 2414N 08540W 9664 00348 0055 +227 +221 165027 028 021 000 00
211600 2413N 08539W 9667 00347 0061 +213 //// 174031 033 025 001 01
211630 2413N 08538W 9664 00349 //// +202 //// 171029 030 030 003 05
211700 2412N 08536W 9666 00348 0062 +208 //// 171029 031 030 003 01
211730 2412N 08535W 9656 00358 0065 +213 //// 177028 030 032 011 01
211800 2411N 08533W 9664 00349 0062 +207 //// 169031 032 034 008 01
211830 2411N 08532W 9662 00353 //// +211 //// 168033 033 028 001 01
211900 2410N 08530W 9664 00349 //// +208 //// 170031 034 030 002 01
211930 2410N 08529W 9667 00349 //// +212 //// 167031 032 030 001 01
212000 2409N 08527W 9679 00337 //// +222 //// 158032 035 031 001 05
212030 2409N 08526W 9666 00350 //// +223 //// 159037 041 032 001 05
212100 2409N 08524W 9661 00350 //// +223 //// 157037 041 /// /// 05
212130 2411N 08524W 9664 00349 //// +227 //// 151038 038 023 002 05
212200 2413N 08524W 9669 00348 //// +223 //// 150037 038 029 001 01
212230 2414N 08524W 9658 00358 //// +225 //// 155037 038 033 002 05
212300 2416N 08525W 9663 00353 //// +224 //// 142039 043 036 005 05
212330 2418N 08526W 9668 00348 //// +224 //// 123033 036 039 005 05
$$
;

[Yellow Evan]

39 knt SFMR winds support a 40 knot TS, which is also in line with ASCAT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[PerfectStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-animated.gif

As I go cross eyed looking at the sat loops, I did check the vis sat and noticed a small ''eye like" feature due east and a hair north of YP center off of extreme NW Cuba. Seems to be whirling inside what I guess is the MLC? Thoughts appreciated. If true, could be a sign of organizing. The 'eye' ish appears at 19:45 UTC.

[Chris_in_Tampa]