ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Just not seeing this being a big deal for Tampa...another Alberto..a bit of wind and rain.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
EDIT POST

[caneman]

Thanks for the power outage map. I'm in pinellas county on the peninsula west of tampa. Mine went out and then back on.

[caneman]

I wouldn't call what I'm seeing on radar and coming as just a bit of rain. That's a lot of hard training rain coming. Fortunately it won't sit and spin like Debby though.

[cycloneye]

Great view from AF307 that was on Sunday afternoon investigating the system before it was upgraded to TS Colin.If you look closely,there is a waterspout at the distance.

[northjaxpro]

Remember, some of that convection currently over the Yucatan iis generated from daytime heating, with the rich tropical moisture adding extra fuel.to generate the massive convection.

[tarheelprogrammer]

To me it looks like the system is becoming less organized than it was earlier. Just my opinion.

[caneman]

I'm not as concerned with the wind as much as I am any storm surge and excessive rainfall. Tides were the highest I've seen them in a long time. It was a big tide already covering some docks. The fishing was great though

[gatorcane]

Latest 00Z wind shear tendency map is in. There is a pocket of decreasing shear wedging NE into the Eastern Gulf as a small (albeit squashed) anticyclone is building on top of Colin and moving in tandem with the cyclone. Note shear is not static as this map is a snapshot in time.

[tropicwatch]

Have been waiting on an updated wind shear map. Even so this is two hours old. Shear is coming down in Colin's path it appears.

[CrazyC83]

Remember, some of that convection currently over the Yucatan iis generated from daytime heating, with the rich tropical moisture adding extra fuel.to generate the massive convection.

That seems to be a big part of storms like this. I remember during Debby the flooding in N Florida was almost entirely due to daytime heating convection over land (which faded at night), with it having trouble developing oceanic convection.

[Steve]

To me it looks like the system is becoming less organized than it was earlier. Just my opinion.

It's gonna pulse,but I don't think that's the case. It's a bit elongated, but the surge hitting land as night falls is closer to the center as the convection farther east wanes a bit. It happens like that pretty often at night on the Mexican Gulf Coast, the Yucatan and in Cuba when a circulation center is nearby, but that's more likely later in the summer. It looks like some of it is from a deep tropical surge at the surface in proximity with surface low pressure.

[northjaxpro]

Colin has a small anticyclone moving in tandem with it right now. It has allowed Colin to ventilate its outflow especially on its eastern side. It has definitely helped in fending off that decapitating shear, which is in the Western GOM at this time.

[Steve H.]

To me it looks like the system is becoming less organized than it was earlier. Just my opinion.

I was thinking the same thing tarheel. I thought it would tighten up quicker, but it hasn't, It is gonna bring a lot of rain though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Great view from AF307 that was on Sunday afternoon investigating the system before it was upgraded to TS Colin.If you look closely,there is a waterspout at the distance.

NICE pic!!!

[tatertawt24]

Looks surprisingly okay right now. What strength is it expected to be at in Florida?

Edit: Never mind lol, now it looks eh.

[Hammy]

Based on low cloud motion this does not even appear to be closed any longer--the low clouds north of the Yucatan that were from the NNW earlier now seem to be from the NNE-NE.

[chaser1]

Looking at the IR this evening, I'm still holding on to that MLC for reformaton (or actual formation, depending on how one looks at it So far I'm not seeing how an area of low pressure to its WNW will maintain itself minus the rising air that bursting convection would help induce. Follow the convection, my son.......

[alienstorm]

It could be my eyes playing tricks but seems to be moving more to the northeast at this time

[gatorcane]

If you click this link and speed up loop, you can see a spin of low clouds north of the Yucatan.

So it would appear the models were right and the MLC moving NE will eventually die off.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[stormwise]

Based on low cloud motion this does not even appear to be closed any longer--the low clouds north of the Yucatan that were from the NNW earlier now seem to be from the NNE-NE.

Agree its now likely opened to west.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.