2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[northjaxpro]

Two different camps. EURO has frontal Low off the SE ATL coast by the end of next weekend, while the GFS has substantial energy/vorticity in the GOM. The GFS is then showing potential of a tropical cyclone developing, headed west in the GOM toward the Texas coast by early next week (June 21). GFS has a stronger ridge building into the SE U.S. from the Western Atlantic, which steers the potential tropical system toward Texas.

[Alyono]

CMC joins MU in forecasting a Gulf storm

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS drops the Gulf Storm, instead shows a coastal low becoming subtropical or tropical next Sunday off the Carolina Coast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models seem to be having all kinds of trouble. Probably time to trust what the ECMWF shows.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF about to show a BOC storm it appears.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF about to show a BOC storm it appears.

Take that back. Not seeing anything organized on wxbell.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z ECMWF about to show a BOC storm it appears.

Take that back. Not seeing anything organized on wxbell.

Too much shear but ECMWF is showing a storm near the mid atlantic? WTF?

[Alyono]

EC has a nor'easter, not a TC

[tarheelprogrammer]

EC has a nor'easter, not a TC

Okay thanks lol was like wtf in June haha.

[Yellow Evan]

EC has a nor'easter, not a TC

yea, it's hard to get something going that far NW in mid-June, given how steep the SST gradient is off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

[Rgv20]

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville concerning the potential tropical trouble..

Though just beyond the scope of the long-term, the latest GFS and
ECMWF are showing signs of moving a fairly significant surface
low/tropical wave over the western gulf early next week. As far
as the GFS goes, today`s placement of the low over the western
Gulf early next week is a departure well to the southwest of
where this model was showing this feature yesterday. On the ECMWF
side of things, the placement of the feature over the western Gulf
is a noteable northward departure from the model`s previous run.
Either way, confidence is growng in this model solution as both
the GFS and ECMWF now bring it toward/near our neighborhood. If
the feature actually develops even somewhat similarly to today`s
models, it could lead to a noteable heavy rain event for deep
south Texas around the middle of next week.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS comes again with SE U.S coast low and GOM low.

[cycloneye]

And later the GOM/BOC low turns a little stronger.

[stormwise]

Clearly, the models are developing a frontal low along the East U.S. Coast next weekend. The question is, will it be able to disassociate itself from the cold front and develop tropical characteristics? Maybe - if it stays offshore long enough.

12Z is a bomb ,Even without tropical characteristics its likely to have hurricane strength gusts and wave/surge inundation if it verifys.

[Kingarabian]

So is the GFS not showing an EPAC storm because it's developing that storm that goes into Mexico?

[Yellow Evan]

So is the GFS not showing an EPAC storm because it's developing that storm that goes into Mexico?

Not likely since future Agatha is currently in the EPAC already.

The system behind the 10/60 that the ECMWf has been off and on is the BOC storm on the GFS, though.

[TheStormExpert]

Subtropical Storm on the 00z Euro off the NE U.S.?

[jlauderdal]

Subtropical Storm on the 00z Euro off the NE U.S.?

im heading to maine on saturday...lets see if this thing can actually develop into something, will holf off on the whale watching reseravations ...impressive on the euro regardless if its fully tropical

[wxman57]

Euro develops it on Saturday (along the front). By Sunday, it's detached from the front and becoming tropical. GFS is south of the Euro development area, but does indicate a 50 mph low detached from the front. I might go with a 90-100% chance of a low forming along the east coast next weekend - quite likely. Maybe a 60-70% chance it gets named as a 50-60 mph TS next Sunday or Monday.

[NDG]

IMO this potential system might start as extra tropical system that may acquire subtropical charecteristics by looking at the Euro but it could quickly loose any subtropical characteristics once it moves away from the gulf stream, SSTs temps along the NE are only in the 50s & to low 60s at the most.