ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[NotoSans]

Mission over.

000
URNT15 KNHC 201116
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 45 20160620
110630 2136N 09657W 8431 01590 0142 +145 +053 115021 022 022 010 00
110700 2137N 09658W 8434 01585 0140 +150 +048 115021 021 019 010 00
110730 2138N 09700W 8425 01594 0145 +143 +050 116021 021 022 010 00
110800 2139N 09701W 8432 01590 0145 +143 +048 116020 021 020 011 01
110830 2140N 09703W 8429 01591 0154 +131 +036 113020 021 017 017 00
110900 2142N 09704W 8429 01592 0154 +130 +032 111023 025 022 017 01
110930 2143N 09706W 8430 01590 0150 +136 +046 119021 021 018 012 01
111000 2144N 09707W 8429 01592 0151 +136 +037 120021 021 017 014 01
111030 2145N 09708W 8430 01594 0145 +146 +038 112020 021 015 011 01
111100 2146N 09710W 8425 01599 0148 +140 +038 099021 022 013 010 01
111130 2148N 09711W 8430 01594 0148 +144 +038 085015 020 016 009 00
111200 2149N 09713W 8433 01595 0151 +143 +039 082014 016 016 009 03
111230 2150N 09713W 8372 01654 0154 +136 +040 064013 016 /// /// 03
111300 2151N 09712W 8037 02003 0148 +131 +040 045012 014 /// /// 05
111330 2152N 09710W 7651 02412 0139 +111 +044 063018 021 /// /// 05
111400 2154N 09709W 7332 02772 0147 +084 +040 044017 019 /// /// 05
111430 2155N 09708W 7018 03138 0151 +063 +026 060017 019 /// /// 03
111500 2156N 09707W 6739 03482 0149 +053 +018 082022 026 /// /// 05
111530 2157N 09706W 6468 03826 0147 +038 +009 078024 026 /// /// 03
111600 2158N 09704W 6240 04121 0148 +021 +007 075020 023 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Recon gaining altitude, mission over.

[weathaguyry]

Looks like mission has ended, so maybe that means upgrade at 8AM

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
700 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
...DANIELLE SPREADING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 96.0 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening
is forecast before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

We have Danielle!

[NDG]

7:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 20.6°N 96.0°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[WPBWeather]

We have Danielle!

This is one of the earliest "D" storms on record?

[arkestra]

This is the earliest.

[rolltide]

Looking increasingly unlikely this gets named, especially given that this is the last flight and ASCAT doesn't show many 30kt barbs let alone any 35kt.

Edit: No upgrade at 5am so zero chance of upgrade.

It's never a good idea to say "zero chance" in the tropics during hurricane season.

[JaxGator]

We have Danielle. D-Max, decreasing shear and very warm water temps did the trick. Would the WNW movement mean more time over water?

[cycloneye]

The Monday June 20 TCPOD came out without new mission.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0905 AM EDT MON 20 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't see a reason for another Recon. with it this close to land, could be ashore by the time they got there.

[Aric Dunn]

There used to be a radar site right there along the coast but appears it is no longer functional .

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi



TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning measured
an 850-mb maximum flight-level wind of 52 kt north of the center
along with an SFMR surface wind of 40 kt. Based on these data and
the overall improvement in the satellite presentation, the
depression was upgraded to a tropical storm. Danielle becomes the
earliest fourth-named storm in the Atlantic basin, surpassing
Tropical Storm Debbie of 2012.

The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Recon wind data indicate
that Danielle made a jog to the northwest, probably due to
reformation of the low-level center closer to an earlier burst of
strong convection. However, the general east-to-west deep layer
steering flow supports a slow but steady motion toward the west or
west-northwest for the next 24 hours, resulting in Danielle moving
inland along the east coast of Mexico later today or tonight. The
official forecast track lies close to the HWRF model.

Some modest strengthening before landfall cannot be ruled out, but
no rapid or significant strengthening is expected due to Danielle's
imminent interaction with land. Rapid weakening of the wind field is
forecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation expected by 36 h.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
Danielle. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[PTrackerLA]

Danielle continues to improve in satellite appearance as she prepares for landfall, definitely looks like a TS now...the BOC does it again!

[tropicwatch]

Hard to determine where the center of circulation is now.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[BigA]

Hard to determine where the center of circulation is now.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

The center (or at least what we can see on visible imagery, which may not be the same as the surface center) looks to be located SE of that spit of land south of Tampico. I don't know the name of that feature, but it juts out a little bit into the GOM. As of now the center looks SE of there, moving roughly due westward. Landfall in a few to several hours.

[cycloneye]

BigA

Here is a map of the area that goes out and that is Laguna de Tamiahua.

[BigA]

BigA

Here is a map of the area that goes out and that is Laguna de Tamiahua.

Thank you very much. Always great to learn something new.

Just saw that the land enclosing the Laguna is Cabo Rojo.