2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Alyono]

That is what the 12z GFS showed at landfall in SE Louisiana a Cat.1 hurricane.

980mb 330 hours out would probably be a high 2 or 3.

Wind field shows winds of strong TS or weak Cat.1 though.

you are actually using the verbatim wind speeds from a global model that has low resolution?

[Yellow Evan]

Wind field shows winds of strong TS or weak Cat.1 though.

That's since the resolution of the GFS post-truncation is not very good at accurately showing the wind-field.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The GFS sniffed out Danielle pretty early and the euro was slow to hop on board.

ECMWF never came on board it showed nothing pretty much there up until landfall. I am not saying it is wrong here but it is not perfect.

EC was showing Danielle several days in advance. At least the full, 150K+ ECMWF was showing a depression at landfall several days prior to genesis

Sorry using the TropicalTidbits.com site I never seen it. I seen lower pressures but I am not a MET so no access to those tools sadly

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF never came on board it showed nothing pretty much there up until landfall. I am not saying it is wrong here but it is not perfect.

EC was showing Danielle several days in advance. At least the full, 150K+ ECMWF was showing a depression at landfall several days prior to genesis

In addition to what Alyono said, the EPS showed a medium to high likelihood of a TD in the BOC, although they showed a small chance of a TS.

[N2FSU]

18zGFS; +336hr

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS almost identical to the 12z. No point in going over the details this far out but it's interesting this system is not being shoved west into central America/Mexico like we have seen so much over the past several years. I'm concerned over a scenario playing out like this for the Gulf later in the season.

[Kingarabian]

This system being showed by the GFS still not on the European model.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Though the landfall is quite a ways away the GFS starts developing this storm about 162 hours from now and has been cutting the time down some I believe so. It could be wrong or the ECMWF could be wrong but for now the GFS is holding firm.

[hurricanehunter69]

18z GFS almost identical to the 12z. No point in going over the details this far out but it's interesting this system is not being shoved west into central America/Mexico like we have seen so much over the past several years. I'm concerned over a scenario playing out like this for the Gulf later in the season.

That...my friend. Is a very good point! I am also very concerned!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So that puts it next tuesday

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/b30682a628.png

https://i.imgsafe.org/b35aa5a420.png
Plenty of time still, EC prob's.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS to Mexico? lol Still showing a system though. For now. Turning later toward the US coast maybe it will hit Mexico. Hopefully it doesn't become a storm. It has development starting at 156 which is exactly 6 hours off from 162 I posted earlier. For now it is a long tracking TS. From 156 to end of the run.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a strong hurricane raking Texas.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a strong hurricane raking Texas.

Yes but has it sitting in the GOM a bit. Screams upwelling.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a strong hurricane raking Texas.

Yes but has it sitting in the GOM a bit. Screams upwelling.

Also waiting on the Euro.

[Steve]

I don't think it's a graze at 996mb on the low res version into Chambers of Jefferson County. 00z trend has been western Gulf more so than other runs. However at 14 days out the way GFS has been terrible in 5-10 and 10-15 range for the continent, I'm not buying it. I'm not disagreeing with the potential of a wave to develop into low pressure in the Western Gulf. It's more the overall failures of the GFS that makes me just want to wait until the proverbial players are on the board.

[Kingarabian]

I don't think it's a graze at 996mb on the low res version into Chambers of Jefferson County. 00z trend has been western Gulf more so than other runs. However at 14 days out the way GFS has been terrible in 5-10 and 10-15 range for the continent, I'm not buying it. I'm not disagreeing with the potential of a wave to develop into low pressure in the Western Gulf. It's more the overall failures of the GFS that makes me just want to wait until the proverbial players are on the board.

985 on high resolution.

Euro still favoring development in the EPAC. Time frame is also coming closer. So one of these major players have to give in.

[stormwise]

Undoubtedly there is a lot of fuel available in the Caribbean and GOM.

[chaser1]

18z GFS almost identical to the 12z. No point in going over the details this far out but it's interesting this system is not being shoved west into central America/Mexico like we have seen so much over the past several years. I'm concerned over a scenario playing out like this for the Gulf later in the season.

...And, today's 6Z is right in line with yesterday's 18Z too. Time from didnt seem to advance nor am I seeing development as early as previously occuring, but GFS is thus far insisting on a N. Gulf hurricane threat. Be curious to see how long its gonna hold this solution.

[stormlover2013]

all the other models show EPAC.....we shall see