2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Hammy]

http://i.imgur.com/aW6GnVH.png
http://i.imgur.com/TtMeORn.png
http://i.imgur.com/fgE0l37.png

Above normal rain with below normal pressure/rainfall showing up for the last third of the month--could this be an indicator that something might form around that time?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.

Will it hit the "permanent trough" or "Texas Death ridge"?? Stay tuned!!

Better chance that it turns out to be another 10 day out phantom model storm that never does a thing, much like it was so persistent doing so two weeks ago. But yeah the trough will be there waiting for it in a couple weeks though

[Yellow Evan]

Better chance that it turns out to be another 10 day out phantom model storm that never does a thing, much like it was so persistent doing so two weeks ago. But yeah the trough will be there waiting for it in a couple weeks though

The ECMWF briefly had 1 phantom storm off the east coast that didn't pan out. With that said, I'm not seeing anything on the horizon in the long range GFS and EPS runs, but it makes sense we'll get something before too long, with a CCKW/MJO entering from the EPAC.

[stormwise]

Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.

Will it hit the "permanent trough" or "Texas Death ridge"?? Stay tuned!!

Nope it will hit the Caribbean shear death trap. [/quote]


OK don't say you was not warned.

[Hammy]

I noticed the 500MB high is nudging slightly north over time, and continues to do so in the model runs--the CFS five day average has the 591 isobar pushed from Puerto Rico to about 30N with the 588 isobar going from Central America to the northern Caribbean--could this be an indication of the ITCZ moving north and thus an indicator that the Cape Verde season could start by month's end?

[stormwise]

From around 20th the cfsV2 anoms starts rolling td waves off Africa.
https://i.imgsafe.org/b823110d49.png



td depressed easterly wave forecast.

[Hammy]

Euro has been showing a low pressure coming off the Carolinas in about a week for a few days, and now the last two runs have it moving slowly along the coast and strengthening.

[Siker]

Good agreement among the GFS / Euro / CMC on a large tropical wave emerging off of Africa at a decent latitude (main vorticity around the Cape Verde Islands) in 8 days. Nothing indicating any development of it right now.

[Hammy]

Good agreement among the GFS / Euro / CMC on a large tropical wave emerging off of Africa at a decent latitude (main vorticity around the Cape Verde Islands) in 8 days. Nothing indicating any development of it right now.

Could be the wave that the CFS is picking up developing near the end of July in the Bahamas.

[JaxGator]

July can still be an interesting month tropic wise. 2008 had major Hurricane Bertha way out in the Atlantic but the steering patterns thankfully favored a re-curve then. If this storm does come into the picture, the Bahamas and the waters off Florida plus the Gulf Stream would be plenty of fuel for it depending on the shear.

[Hurricaneman]

Good agreement among the GFS / Euro / CMC on a large tropical wave emerging off of Africa at a decent latitude (main vorticity around the Cape Verde Islands) in 8 days. Nothing indicating any development of it right now.

Could be the wave that the CFS is picking up developing near the end of July in the Bahamas.

I believe so but as always something 20 to 25 days away is complete fantasy but could be a good indicator of steering currents

[tarheelprogrammer]

The new updates have for the most part stopped the phantom storms popping up in the long range. This is a good thing but it makes it all a little boring for model watchers . At least we know if something does show up it will have a better chance of actually happening.

[Hammy]

Models are indicating the ITCZ starting to thicken up with a few brief almost spin-ups in about 8-12 days, so this could be an indication that things are about to start going by the end of the month.

[Hurricaneman]

Models are indicating the ITCZ starting to thicken up with a few brief almost spin-ups in about 8-12 days, so this could be an indication that things are about to start going by the end of the month.

Id say so with the MJO coming around that time on most models except the GFS but even the GFS is showing lows on the ITCZ out around 264hrs on but we'll have to see if we continue to see these lows on future runs or even if these low developments come closer in time before we get excited but thats just climatology showing up in the models as things start to pick up by late July early August on average

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[stormwise]

EC-00z 850 CRV @138hrs SE USA coast, occluded frontal low moves off the continent and appears to obtain tropical characteristics

[ninel conde]

Unlike what some are saying the azores high has NOT moved north but has headed south with super high pressure over the deep tropics.

[Hammy]

Unlike what some are saying the azores high has NOT moved north but has headed south with super high pressure over the deep tropics.

Check Tropical Tidbits pressure anomalies. High moved west and north--your trough over SE Canada is nonexistent by the end of the run, and pressures are lowering in the eastern Atlantic as well.

http://i.imgur.com/xGPfejn.png
http://i.imgur.com/YSCGGI5.png

Major difference 240 hours out from now.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/f75e6e78d1.png

[ninel conde]

Unlike what some are saying the azores high has NOT moved north but has headed south with super high pressure over the deep tropics.

Check Tropical Tidbits pressure anomalies. High moved west and north--your trough over SE Canada is nonexistent by the end of the run, and pressures are lowering in the eastern Atlantic as well.

http://i.imgur.com/xGPfejn.png
http://i.imgur.com/YSCGGI5.png

Major difference 240 hours out from now.

Shows some improvement but it still shows the same as my map. Pressures well above normal in the deep tropics. The se canada low needs to be gone for good so we need to see if that high is permanent.

[tolakram]

Please keep in mind that if you are posting models past day 15 use the other thread, not this one please. Thanks.

Long range thread -> viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117740