2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Tarheelprogrammer you can't lower your numbers... you already posted them and have to stick with them like everyone else. I bet we'll make it up in August and September. July isn't supposed to be very active...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sadly I know just wanted to state it as an update.

In other news
The new GFS run continues to show stronger and stronger waves coming off Africa. The wave in the last part of the run looks to organize into a system. The only problem is shear is extremely high in the Caribbean. If that sounds familiar it should. GFS showing shear as high as 50+ knots. Seems like dry air will not be as bad for the system I speak of but out ahead of it conditions look downright horrible.

Are you sure about the shear? It can drop at a moments notice. The predictive shear models are not very accurate if you try to use them in the long range.

Yeah that is true but isn't the GFS the best one to use? It has seemed to be very accurate recently or am I wrong? I probably am wrong

[Hammy]

Sadly I know just wanted to state it as an update.

In other news
The new GFS run continues to show stronger and stronger waves coming off Africa. The wave in the last part of the run looks to organize into a system. The only problem is shear is extremely high in the Caribbean. If that sounds familiar it should. GFS showing shear as high as 50+ knots. Seems like dry air will not be as bad for the system I speak of but out ahead of it conditions look downright horrible.

Are you sure about the shear? It can drop at a moments notice. The predictive shear models are not very accurate if you try to use them in the long range.

Yeah that is true but isn't the GFS the best one to use? It has seemed to be very accurate recently or am I wrong? I probably am wrong

Shear there is out of the east, and to the south of the low, which is common in the eastern Atlantic as it's part of the monsoonal outflow.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Are you sure about the shear? It can drop at a moments notice. The predictive shear models are not very accurate if you try to use them in the long range.

Yeah that is true but isn't the GFS the best one to use? It has seemed to be very accurate recently or am I wrong? I probably am wrong

Shear there is out of the east, and to the south of the low, which is common in the eastern Atlantic as it's part of the monsoonal outflow.

Okay thanks I thought I seen shear in the Caribbean too. I must be looking at it wrong. Again thanks Hammy.

[Hammy]

Yeah that is true but isn't the GFS the best one to use? It has seemed to be very accurate recently or am I wrong? I probably am wrong

Shear there is out of the east, and to the south of the low, which is common in the eastern Atlantic as it's part of the monsoonal outflow.

Okay thanks I thought I seen shear in the Caribbean too. I must be looking at it wrong. Again thanks Hammy.

There is shear in the Caribbean, albeit not quite as strong, but again this tends to be normal for July/early August--I remember Cesar back in 1996 forming in the Caribbean during July, and was mentioned to be an extremely rare event due to the high shear that's normally present.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is beginning to show a more active MDR by the last week of July in as far as moist TW's go and retreating Atlantic Ridge to a more central Atlantic position which should aid in the ITCZ gaining latitude and the SAL not as pervasive in my opinion.

[NDG]

Tarheelprogrammer you can't lower your numbers... you already posted them and have to stick with them like everyone else. I bet we'll make it up in August and September. July isn't supposed to be very active...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sadly I know just wanted to state it as an update.

In other news
The new GFS run continues to show stronger and stronger waves coming off Africa. The wave in the last part of the run looks to organize into a system. The only problem is shear is extremely high in the Caribbean. If that sounds familiar it should. GFS showing shear as high as 50+ knots. Seems like dry air will not be as bad for the system I speak of but out ahead of it conditions look downright horrible.

Why are you keep saying that shear is high over the Caribbean? What are you going by?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Tarheelprogrammer you can't lower your numbers... you already posted them and have to stick with them like everyone else. I bet we'll make it up in August and September. July isn't supposed to be very active...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sadly I know just wanted to state it as an update.

In other news
The new GFS run continues to show stronger and stronger waves coming off Africa. The wave in the last part of the run looks to organize into a system. The only problem is shear is extremely high in the Caribbean. If that sounds familiar it should. GFS showing shear as high as 50+ knots. Seems like dry air will not be as bad for the system I speak of but out ahead of it conditions look downright horrible.

Why are you keep saying that shear is high over the Caribbean? What are you going by?

This is what I am seeing as far as shear goes on the GFS run at 12z.

[gatorcane]

I noticed that the RUC models site now goes out from 5 to 7 days. This is a pretty handy site for reviewing the various global model guidance quickly which includes the UKMET model too:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[ninel conde]

euro shows 3 well developed canes in east pac on july 21. I think its safe to say the atlantic will be quiet for the next 15 days.

[cycloneye]

Is very long range so don't get too excited but at least there is something that may be watched by the end of the month.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes it is very long-range cycloneye but the last few runs of the GFS have been hinting at something trying to come off the West Coast of Africa beyond 10 days out and move across the MDR. This is the most bullish run yet developing a weak/moderate TS.

Even the Euro has lowering pressures on the last frame 240hrs. out on it's past few runs.

[Yellow Evan]

All 51 EPS have zlich through day 15. However, the EPAC should settle down by July 20-25, so the favorable conditions should move to the MDR late July/early August.

[Hammy]

euro shows 3 well developed canes in east pac on july 21. I think its safe to say the atlantic will be quiet for the next 15 days.

For once I'll have to agree with you--the CFS has essentially been keeping the Atlantic pretty much dead until the very end of the month for some time.

[Hurricaneman]

The long run of the 0zGFS seems to be quieting down the EPAC and looking at things it does indeed look like the last few days of July into August will probably produce a storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[ninel conde]

SE canada low hanging tough as nails.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS with 3 TCs now and one in the Gulf of Mexico Probably not realistic though as no other model has the first two storms.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS with 3 TCs now and one in the Gulf of Mexico Probably not realistic though as no other model has the first two storms.

Yea, 06z run gets bullish with a TW moving into the Carib. Sea developing a closed Low which traverses the Carib. into the South GOM on a WNW heading @384 a TS.

[tolakram]

It's the trend that is important rather than the accuracy. I think the message is conditions more favorable in that time period.

[Blown Away]

384 hr GFS...
GOM - Possible TS moving WNW.
E Atl - Possible TS moving W.
N of DR - Low deepening in last frame moving WNW.

It's lala land, but it seems things may be heating up when we move into August...

[Stormcenter]

Can someone please post graphics for the long range GFS run showing GOM storm?