2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[NDG]

Dont have time to reply to all of that but all you needto do is watch TWC and its rather clear the jet stream is going to cut rigth thru the mid atlantic after a few days of being further north.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ ... 131045.gif

As far as the se canada low of course it moves, though its been dominant for years now. In that picture its in the NW atlantic and its quite easy to see the trof its creating down the coast that would steer anything well east. Thats why JB gets so excited about the newfoundland wheel because if you replace that low with a locked in ridge the entire US is vulnerable to a landfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf- ... /slp10.png

Here you can clearly see that the high over greenland has weakened allowing the atlantic high to build north and begin to replace the low that is now over the NW atlantic. the problem is for a few days the high begins to build north then the pattern reverts back to a neg nao. Lets see if that high can lock in for months, not a few days. Of course the other problem it still shows is well above normal pressure in the deep tropics. All that nice solid green over the eastpac compared to practically none from africa to mexico.

MSLPs over the "tropical Atlantic" are actually near average and forecasted by the Euro to go slightly below average to average over the next few days.

[WPBWeather]

Ninel. Take a break from this forum for a bit and calm down. You have been posting nonsense and non sequitur opinions for days. We all can watch the Weather Channel if we want and form our own opinions on what they offer.

[tolakram]

Of course the other problem it still shows is well above normal pressure in the deep tropics. All that nice solid green over the eastpac compared to practically none from africa to mexico.

This is not correct, is it?

[Blown Away]

July is normally a quiet build up month to Aug/Sept in the Atlantic Basin, so I think we should expect higher SLP, SAL, and shear during July and then the switch normally flips and the Atlantic comes alive in August... The long range models always flip flop showing development, but seem to be consistent on lowering the pressures once we move into late July/August, which is climatologically normal... Analyzing July troughs, SAL, shear, and SLP's and drawing hard conclusions about the heart of the season is not practical, because July is usually a hostile month for our developing systems in the Atlantic...

[LarryWx]

Ninel,
If I didn't know better, I'd think you are rooting to be hit by still another hurricane (US east coast) based on your choice of words (using the word "problem" when describing a pattern not conducive to US east coast hits) lol.
In all seriousness, your contributions based on your many years of weather BB posting experience are appreciated even if you sometimes get a bit excited. Your bearish posts are a welcomed balance to the many posters on the bullish side as well as entertaining!
Climowise, the current very quiet Atlantic in July is obviously nothing unusual and is, in fact, typical. It has very little bearing on how active or inactive will be the heart of the season imo. The 1st 2/3 of July is on average about as inactive as any other part of the season except early June and Nov.

[ninel conde]

Ninel,
If I didn't know better, I'd think you are rooting to be hit by still another hurricane (US east coast) based on your choice of words (using the word "problem" when describing a pattern not conducive to US east coast hits) lol.
In all seriousness, your contributions based on your many years of weather BB posting experience are appreciated even if you sometimes get a bit excited. Your bearish posts are a welcomed balance to the many posters on the bullish side as well as entertaining!
Climowise, the current very quiet Atlantic in July is obviously nothing unusual and is, in fact, typical. It has very little bearing on how active or inactive will be the heart of the season imo. The 1st 2/3 of July is about as inactive as any other part of the season except early June and Nov.

July is normally quiet but for an active season i would like to see waves making it across the atlantic with convection. Postel indicates the MJO wont be making it into the atlantic in the near future and the dust wil continue. Ill just limit my posting till mid-august and see if the switch has flipped.

[ninel conde]

This is interesting. There is certainly a chance the east pac will tie of break the record for activity in july even though sst's were rather chilly in 1985. The Atlantic had a high impact season in 1985 will chilly SST's as well. In the interest of being fair and balanced the Atlantic SST'S are quite a bit warmer than 1985 so that could be a sign of activity later.

[PTrackerLA]

I would bet June 1985 showed much above SST's in the Epac...all that activity in July of that year would easily cool down the temperatures and I think the same thing is happening this month. How this translates into Atlantic activity once things slow down on the EPAC side will be quite interesting.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the vorticity near the CVI (probably a wave) ends up near the Bahamas in the GFS.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/753271016596570146

[chaser1]

Dont have time to reply to all of that but all you needto do is watch TWC and its rather clear the jet stream is going to cut rigth thru the mid atlantic after a few days of being further north.

As far as the se canada low of course it moves, though its been dominant for years now. In that picture its in the NW atlantic and its quite easy to see the trof its creating down the coast that would steer anything well east. Thats why JB gets so excited about the newfoundland wheel because if you replace that low with a locked in ridge the entire US is vulnerable to a landfall.

"Dont have time to reply to" (or read, or contemplate) WOW

Ninel, not sure where you live but i'm realizing its somewhere north of Hatteras lol (that would explain your "Ridge Envy")
Listen don't bother reading my prior post, I've got a better idea - move south. Leave those trough badlands, and come on down to Florida "Landfall USA" lol. Wait... I hear what you're thinking, how many years?? Ye of little faith You're gonna have to trust me on this one buddy. Hey besides, when it comes down to it we're all storm enthusiasts at heart. I'll even buy you a drink at the pier as we watch the distant white caps grow closer and the stratocum deck lower and thicken!

[Yellow Evan]

I would bet June 1985 showed much above SST's in the Epac...all that activity in July of that year would easily cool down the temperatures and I think the same thing is happening this month. How this translates into Atlantic activity once things slow down on the EPAC side will be quite interesting.

June and July global SSt's from 1985.

[Siker]

Looks like the vorticity near the CVI (probably a wave) ends up near the Bahamas in the GFS.

CMC has a weak low from that energy in the Western Gulf at day 9.

[wxman57]

How about we stop arguing back and forth with a certain individual? Each person here is entitled to his/her opinion. Some opinions may or may not be based on "facts" (a model's forecast of an occurrence isn't a fact, by the way). No one here knows exactly what's going to happen this season.

Let's get back to examining/discussing the model output here (and in the longer range thread) without calling out any individuals for being "wrong". The models could all be wrong beyond the next week or two. The one certainty (it appears) is that El Nino will not be a factor this season. It's like some of you are being defensive about your hurricane season. Most certainly, no personal attacks will be tolerated here, not that anyone has gone that far yet.

[SFLcane]

57 talk to me about the cold ssts now being left from the chu chu train in epac. I'd say the Atlantic will come to life towards the and of July into Aug. still like to here your thoughts on steering thus far and what might be ahead. Thx

[RL3AO]

For the short term, a strong storm will limit SSTs over a small area, but the ocean is gonna quickly mix to near pre-storm temperatures. Even seven storms in July isn't gonna make the eastern tropical Pacific have cold SSTs. Maybe we're talking about an average SST of 28.0 instead of 28.5, but that isn't going to prevent storms if the environment is favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

For the short term, a strong storm will limit SSTs over a small area, but the ocean is gonna quickly mix to near pre-storm temperatures. Even seven storms in July isn't gonna make the eastern tropical Pacific have cold SSTs. Maybe we're talking about an average SST of 28.0 instead of 28.5, but that isn't going to prevent storms if the environment is favorable.

Especially during the summer, since the NHem is warming. In October and November, that's a different story (it took months for Olaf's upwelling to go away for instance).

[SFLcane]

CFS is showing the epac drying up soon so we shall see.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the ensembles, CFS has been flop flopping back and forth from run to run on the amount of activity it shows in the EPAc. Regardless, they mostly show the ATL starting to light up around July 28 and remain fairly busy for much of August.

[wxman57]

57 talk to me about the cold ssts now being left from the choo choo train in epac. I'd say the Atlantic will come to life towards the and of July into Aug. still like to here your thoughts on steering thus far and what might be ahead. Thx

That cold wake will certainly be a factor for the next few weeks, but I think that the water there will recover over time (by August/September). I've been watching the tropics for many, many years (decades - many decades?). The pattern I've seen over and over again is that the E. Pac/Atlantic shift back and forth all the time. One basin becomes active while the other is quiet, and vice-versa. I'm seeing signs that the East Pac will quiet down by late July. By early August, I think it will be the Atlantic's turn, most likely starting with the western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

57 talk to me about the cold ssts now being left from the choo choo train in epac. I'd say the Atlantic will come to life towards the and of July into Aug. still like to here your thoughts on steering thus far and what might be ahead. Thx

That cold wake will certainly be a factor for the next few weeks, but I think that the water there will recover over time (by August/September). I've been watching the tropics for many, many years (decades - many decades?). The pattern I've seen over and over again is that the E. Pac/Atlantic shift back and forth all the time. One basin becomes active while the other is quiet, and vice-versa. I'm seeing signs that the East Pac will quiet down by late July. By early August, I think it will be the Atlantic's turn, most likely starting with the western Caribbean.

Obviously, steering is something that can be predicted 2 weeks out with good accuracy but how do you foresee that evolving?