2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[wxman57]

Obviously, steering is something that can be predicted 2 weeks out with good accuracy but how do you foresee that evolving?

I don't see too much changing in the next 2 weeks (16 days). It''s just beyond 16 days that I think we'll start seeing a pattern change.

Long-range models support a stronger-than-normal Azores-Bermuda high this season. This would point to increased low-level wind shear across the MDR, along with a more westward track for disturbances/storms before recurving. Thus, I think we have to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf as well as the East U.S. Coast as far as high-impact threats this season. My coworker says the best analogs are 1955, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2011, though 2011 may not be one of the better analogs.

Note - the long-range part of this topic should be discussed further in the long-range thread, not here.

[Hurricaneman]

Obviously, steering is something that can be predicted 2 weeks out with good accuracy but how do you foresee that evolving?

I don't see too much changing in the next 2 weeks (16 days). It''s just beyond 16 days that I think we'll start seeing a pattern change.

Long-range models support a stronger-than-normal Azores-Bermuda high this season. This would point to increased low-level wind shear across the MDR, along with a more westward track for disturbances/storms before recurving. Thus, I think we have to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf as well as the East U.S. Coast as far as high-impact threats this season. My coworker says the best analogs are 1955, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2011, though 2011 may not be one of the better analogs.

Note - the long-range part of this topic should be discussed further in the long-range thread, not here.

Agreed and what you do mention as analogs anyone from Boston to New Orleans may need to watch as things proceed

[AnnularCane]

Note - the long-range part of this topic should be discussed further in the long-range thread, not here.

Where is the long-range thread?

[JaxGator]

Note - the long-range part of this topic should be discussed further in the long-range thread, not here.

Where is the long-range thread?

It's the "Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal" thread on the Talkin Tropics page.

[cycloneye]

Note - the long-range part of this topic should be discussed further in the long-range thread, not here.

Where is the long-range thread?

Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS back to showing nothing. Impressive waves but they keep dying over and over. EPAC still lighting it up even in long range.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS back to showing nothing. Impressive waves but they keep dying over and over. EPAC still lighting it up even in long range.

GFS never showed anything of significance on the Atlantic side in the first place.

18z GFS has a strong Tropical Wave @ 384hrs. traversing the Tropical Atlantic with lowering pressures in the region and throughout most of the Atlantic, another hint that things are about to become more favorable in time for the meat of the season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS back to showing nothing. Impressive waves but they keep dying over and over. EPAC still lighting it up even in long range.

GFS never showed anything of significance on the Atlantic side in the first place.

18z GFS has a strong Tropical Wave @ 384hrs. traversing the Tropical Atlantic with lowering pressures in the region and throughout most of the Atlantic, another hint that things are about to become more favorable in time for the meat of the season.

http://i66.tinypic.com/zl6903.jpg

We will see but the older GFS runs did show TCs and strong waves in the Western Atlantic. Seems to be that the pieces of energy come and go from run to run. I do agree the GFS is hinting at lowering pressure but could be pure fantasy as well.

[Hammy]

We will see but the older GFS runs did show TCs and strong waves in the Western Atlantic. Seems to be that the pieces of energy come and go from run to run. I do agree the GFS is hinting at lowering pressure but could be pure fantasy as well.

We're in a catch-22 situation with the models at the moment--GFS is showing a few storms intermittently in the runs, but it has a bad history with phantom storms so it could be overdoing it. Likewise, the Euro is showing nothing, but also has a bad history in the other direction--several times it has failed to show anything forming until 4-5 days beforehand.

Given that all the models are showing at least pressures lowering I would say the GFS solution would be favored, with a storm or two possibly popping up by the end of the month. The CFS is within the 16-day time frame and shows this as well, with a storm going near Bermuda and a second going into the Gulf (Oddly the extremely long range for weeks has shown an East Coast rider but this has now split into two systems as it gets closer.)

[Hammy]

Latest GFS dropped the system for the time being but is not developing anything significant beyond the next system in the Epac either, so while wavering it's still an indication that things are about to change--it's popped up a few intermittent storms (after weeks of nothing) while decreasing Pacific activity. The CMC is also changing, now showing only two storms in the last few runs in the Epac rather than 4-5, while showing a very strong wave (at a lower latitude, closer to the ITCZ) coming off Africa in about ten days as well, which is the first time it's come close to showing anything in the Atlantic.

[ninel conde]

Euro shows 3 well developed eastpac systems and a very strong neg NAO with the atlantic high well south.

[wxman57]

I'm expecting a stronger Azores-Bermuda high to be there all season, thus my thinking of a less active MDR but with convergence setting up in the western Caribbean to the Bahamas area. Development threat would shift into the western part of the basin this season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Don't laugh but the NAVGEM has a Caribbean TC on its last run. LOL poor thing.

[SeGaBob]

Just curious, have we missed the chance for the earliest E storm yet?

[TheStormExpert]

Just curious, have we missed the chance for the earliest E storm yet?

Yep, July 11th was when the earliest "E" storm formed which was Hurricane Emily(2005).

[tarheelprogrammer]

Latest GFS run continues to show wave after wave dying in a very similar fashion to the past few seasons. Now that we are getting into the range of the end of the month it seems the GFS and the ECMWF wants to keep things quiet. Feeling better about lowering my numbers because the set up is looking dismal at best heading into August.

[JaxGator]

Latest GFS run continues to show wave after wave dying in a very similar fashion to the past few seasons. Now that we are getting into the range of the end of the month it seems the GFS and the ECMWF wants to keep things quiet. Feeling better about lowering my numbers because the set up is looking dismal at best heading into August.

We'll see but I wouldn't bet on those model runs yet. I'm no Met but I wouldn't let my guard down. According to some pro-Met's I follow, there's the danger of the waves intensifying once in the West Atlantic, West Crib and Gulf of Mexico if conditions merit. Minis the shear, the ocean temps and heat content are really warm. It's more of a wait and see mode now. Those models could be right but it can change.

[JaxGator]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_4.png
Looks like the MJO should arrive by tomorrow per GFS. Maybe.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Dust is not leaving any time soon either.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/753644672615079936

[JaxGator]

Humm, interesting. It is July after all so dust outbreaks are not unusual but as cool it would be to have a storm in July, I'm glad we don't have to worry about one harming anybody. It's a good time to enjoy summer and prepare a disaster supply kit.