Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[TheAustinMan]

Maybe we can think of this wave in the far eastern Atlantic as a snow plow ( dry air/SAL plow). Or...the engine of the 2016 cape verde wave train? also...check out that cyclonic motion in the Gulf? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

That cyclonic motion in the Gulf is due to an upper-level low passing through, and wind analyses suggest there is not a broad cyclonic rotation going on in the Gulf of Mexico near the surface.

I think that wave coming off of Africa is really more of a preliminary SAL plow. Usually it takes several of these sacrificial waves to sop up the tropical Atlantic, so it'll be a gradual transition from dry to wet over the course of a few weeks. The pro mets here also indicate that storm formation will be concentrated westward, so unlike a 2010 where the formative action was out near Africa, it appears cyclogenesis points will be more west. Waves will probably be dormant seedlings until then.

[Hammy]

I was doing a comparison research between this year and some past seasons and found a few interesting items.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/MSG-3/WV/2016-07-10-06 (archive doesn't go any farther forward at the moment)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/MET-7/WV/2004-07-16-03

2004 had absurdly large areas of dry air at this point, and with the exception of the central part, basically no convection over the African continent, but look what the season ended up.

Concerning 2013 vs 2016, I still maintain that shear was the main culprit--the season produced 10 storms from July-October, a somewhat respectable number, but all weak, and with the exception of Fernand, all were kept in check by insane upper winds which are not present this year, and where most storms formed (north and west Atlantic) the shear is significantly lower this year than it's been in five years.

http://i.imgur.com/xUHMzwd.jpg

Even Humberto, which managed to form in the MDR, was kept weaker by the upper flow because had there not been an unusually deep upper trough where it was when it was, Humberto would likely have continued west and strengthened further, but was instead steered straight north off of Africa into cooler waters.

[tarheelprogrammer]

From Levi Cowan on twitter.

Models have backed off on a favorable Atlantic Walker Cell to end July. May have to wait longer for Atlantic TCs.

The meat of the season is coming up soon and looks like the start of it will have nothing to show for it.

[cycloneye]

Here is the message and conversation between Levi and Eric Blake.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/754683392067772416

[Ntxw]

I think the La Nada (not coupling La Nina) in part is to fault. Normally during a burgeoning Nina rising motion will focus over Indonesia which is very favorable for the Atlantic. This has not yet happened. It bypassed from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific likely due to lagging effects of the late Nino. The Maritime continent tends to follow with the Atlantic in terms of the walker cell (rising and sinking motion;convection). When it is active there, sinking air will dominate the Pacific and rise over the Atlantic. We could get our first Nina weekly reading tomorrow so perhaps if it persists will signal a bigger change.

[cycloneye]

More hurdles for the North Atlantic basin to try to turn active.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/754704918120923137

[ninel conde]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

It's still July 17, so a pattern change within the next 2 weeks isn't expected.

[ninel conde]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

It's still July 17, so a pattern change within the next 2 weeks isn't expected.

Well, the time when the switch gets flipped keeps getting pushed back. My position has been as time goes by conditions will just get more negative. No reason to change. JB isnt even tweeting at all about an increase in tropical activity.

[ninel conde]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

[Yellow Evan]

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

I don't think that's a good idea personally. After all, this is the Atlantic hurricane season, not the United States landfall hurricane season.

[WPBWeather]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

Glad you two are so confident.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm actually starting to agree with ninel. Things seem to keep getting pushed back in the models!

Will the switch ever get flipped? Could we be in for another 2013 season?

In 2013 things kept getting pushed further and further back in time. The same seems to be happening this year as well in my opinion.

[JaxGator]

To me, nothing is indicating an active aug/sept. Other than an odd hurricane forming in just the right palce at just the right time it looks like a very quiet landfall season.

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

I'm sorry but measuring an active season by landfalls alone in the U.S. does not mean it's not a bad season for someone else or another nation that suffer from landfalling hurricanes. Nor does it determine how active a season is. Though 1992 was considered not as active, we got Andrew. There are other countries like Haiti in the basin that are just as at risk as we are and they or may not be prepared for any landfalling system. It only takes one to make it a bad season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'm actually starting to agree with ninel. Things seem to keep getting pushed back in the models!

Will the switch ever get flipped? Could we be in for another 2013 season?

In 2013 things kept getting pushed further and further back in time. The same seems to be happening this year as well in my opinion.

This will make at least 5 years since we have had an active season. Wonder what the numbers say about that? Has that happened before?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

I'm sorry but measuring an active season by landfalls alone in the U.S. does not mean it's not a bad season for someone else or another nation that suffer from landfalling hurricanes. Nor does it determine how active a season is. Though 1992 was considered not as active, we got Andrew. There are other countries like Haiti in the basin that are just as at risk as we are and they or may not be prepared for any landfalling system. It only takes one to make it a bad season.

Oh I agree there I am just talking about from an active standpoint (number of storms). The threat is never truly dead until the season is over.

[ninel conde]

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

Glad you two are so confident.

What makes me so confident about landfalls is the jet stream(as shown on TWC) continues to dive south out into the atlantic thru the mid atlantic states. huge heat ridge in the center of the country.

[TheStormExpert]

Not just quiet landfall season but quiet overall. May not reach last year's numbers? Models still not hinting at a pattern change in the long range heading into the meat of the season.

I measure an active season by the number of US landfalls of hurricanes and it appears we could see another 2015

I'm sorry but measuring an active season by landfalls alone in the U.S. does not mean it's not a bad season for someone else or another nation that suffer from landfalling hurricanes. Though 1992 was considered not as active, we got Andrew. There are other countries like Haiti in the basin that are just as at risk as we are and they or may not be prepared for any landfalling system. It only takes one to make it a bad season.

Measuring how active a season is by U.S. hurricane landfalls might not be a good idea, but when was the last season to feature at least 2 legit U.S. hurricane landfalls?

You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find that!

Is it possible Global Warming has something to do with why the U.S. and Florida have been so fortunate for so long?

[cycloneye]

Once again as things are very slow in the North Atlantic basin,the question of decadal activity arises again with the thread Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?