2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WPBWeather]

Sorry but that far out it really is hard to take anything the models are seeing seriously. I'll just wait until at least the first week of August and see what they spitting out then.

It has a potential storm in 7 days. That really isn't that far out.

Right, and as the Pac quiets down soon (as a number of Pro Mets have said already) something to watch now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755760315728527362

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I'm noticing is that things seem to be ramping up around day 8 and we may be in for a rough ride the first of August and beyond as there may be multiple systems that threaten land but as of day 16 on the GFS there may or may not be a threat to Bermuda but what I'm seeing is a possible change in pattern around day 5

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[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the mean steering flow and the Upper Air pattern. If we do see TC genesis, I suspect conditions would be somewhat better near 50W and on into the Caribbean Sea.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is going with development of the Africa wave as soon as it gets over water about 1 week from now.

[Hammy]

12Z GFS is going with development of the Africa wave as soon as it gets over water about 1 week from now.

Initial development pushed back ~12 hours and zero model support from others so I'm calling phantom storm--GEM doesn't even have the strong wave on this run.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS is going with development of the Africa wave as soon as it gets over water about 1 week from now.

Initial development pushed back ~12 hours and zero model support from others so I'm calling phantom storm--GEM doesn't even have the strong wave on this run.

It actually develops it about the same time or a little quicker coming off the West Coast of Africa.

Either way it very well could be a GFS phantom storm if no other models do anything. Besides conditions are not favorable out in the Tropical Atlantic with Dry Air, SAL, and some Wind Shear.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z GFS is going with development of the Africa wave as soon as it gets over water about 1 week from now.

Initial development pushed back ~12 hours and zero model support from others so I'm calling phantom storm--GEM doesn't even have the strong wave on this run.

Most likely a phantom. Pattern is changing but not much showing in long range on most models.

[RL3AO]

12Z GFS is going with development of the Africa wave as soon as it gets over water about 1 week from now.

Initial development pushed back ~12 hours and zero model support from others so I'm calling phantom storm--GEM doesn't even have the strong wave on this run.

It actually develops it about the same time or a little quicker coming off the West Coast of Africa.

Either way it very well could be a GFS phantom storm if no other models do anything. Besides conditions are not favorable out in the Tropical Atlantic with Dry Air, SAL, and some Wind Shear.

Next week the GFS shows very favorable conditions when it wants to develop system. It develops it between SAL outbreaks in an envelope of moisture created by a previous wave, and I don't see any evidence of strong shear. Plus GFS also shows plenty of rising motion from a strong CCKW. I'm not predicting development, but I at least see enough evidence to not completely ignore it.

[Yellow Evan]

Not ready to call it phantom butt the GFS is probably developing it too fast and only 1 out of 51 EPS members at 0z develop this.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It will either be a phantom or out to sea depending on if the GFS is right or not. At least until other models come aboard it has no support. As mentioned only one member of the EPS develops this. Looks like a hole out to sea develops in the pattern the GFS shows. Would be fun to follow a fish storm in the Atlantic but let us see if more support arrives. Most models continue to keep it very quiet in the Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: Not ready to call it phantom butt the GFS is probably developing it too fast and only 1 out of 51 EPS members at 0z develop this.

The ECMWF has been lacking in the TC genesis department of late. NO model is absolutely perfect. They are all just tools. That is why more than the Global models are used by the NHC such as the FSU Super Ensemble and other not for public view computer guidance.

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: Not ready to call it phantom butt the GFS is probably developing it too fast and only 1 out of 51 EPS members at 0z develop this.

The ECMWF has been lacking in the TC genesis department of late. NO model is absolutely perfect. They are all just tools. That is why more than the Global models are used by the NHC such as the FSU Super Ensemble and other not for public view computer guidance.

Well said. Some posters here seem to forget or ignore these facts.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Not ready to call it phantom butt the GFS is probably developing it too fast and only 1 out of 51 EPS members at 0z develop this.

The ECMWF has been lacking in the TC genesis department of late. NO model is absolutely perfect. They are all just tools. That is why more than the Global models are used by the NHC such as the FSU Super Ensemble and other not for public view computer guidance.

Well said. Some posters here seem to forget or ignore these facts.

The problem is the GFS is the -only- model developing anything at this point--not even the Canadian shows anything. This probably indicates a gradual pattern change but I'm not buying development at this point until more than one model shows it.

[tolakram]

The GFS is an inferior model and just getting worse every year as the Euro updates continually leave it behind. Lets not sugar coat it.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/754863797878284288




No model that far out is going to be accurate though and the GFS skill relative to model performance in years past is still pretty good.

[srainhoutx]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · Jul 19
Surprisingly, the GFS is beating the ECMWF easily in the EPac track fcsts in 2016, w/EC most similar to HWRF/GFDL

[tolakram]

:uarrow:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · Jul 19
Surprisingly, the GFS is beating the ECMWF easily in the EPac track fcsts in 2016, w/EC most similar to HWRF/GFDL

That's a good point, and I wonder how much the upper air performance matters for genesis? I can't find any recent scores for tropical performance but 5 years ago all the models were darn close with the GFS and UKMet doing very well.

[RL3AO]

Thats a big point. The Maue map is the 5 day score for 500 mb height in the northern hemisphere outside the deep tropics (20N to 80N). I have no idea how each model handles SAL events, mid-level tropical moisture, CCKWs, or the propagation and strength of easterly waves.

However, when it comes to trying to forecast TCs in week two, the primary tool is the GFS and CFS so thats what we can reference.

[srainhoutx]

Mark, I believe we will need months to determine that factual data. With all the recent upgrades to the various Global Guidance, a snapshot in a short time will likely not produce the most accurate results when determining how well the various Global models are doing regarding the 1000/500/700/200/925 and even 850mb levels. Computers have come a long way in getting a better sense of the various schemes since I began monitoring more years ago than I care to mention.

[tolakram]

Mark, I believe we will need months to determine that factual data. With all the recent upgrades to the various Global Guidance, a snapshot in a short time will likely not produce the most accurate results when determining how well the various Global models are doing regarding the 1000/500/700/200/925 and even 850mb levels. Computers have come a long way in getting a better sense of the various schemes since I began monitoring more years ago than I care to mention.

Yep, all are getting better, but just to rub salt in the wound.

WeatherBell keeps running scores for the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAVGEM

5 day skill averaged over the last 30 days.

ECMWF .893
GFS .864
NAVGEM .832

ECMWF 6 day skill averaged over the last 30 days .820

ECMWF 10 day skill averaged over the last 30 days .515


For tropical genesis performance, there looks to be a recent article behind a paywall.

Does any promet have access to this article?
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -15-0157.1