Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/758591128686002176

That's the forecast for 96L, not the system to the west.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 272346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic west
of the Cape Verde Islands with axis from 18N32W to 10N30W, moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a
700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
southern portion of the wave mainly south of 12N between 26W-32W.

[NDG]

SAL is keeping this tropical wave at bay this morning. European models is still persistent that this wave will start blossoming tomorrow into Saturday with convection as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N-20N
with axis near 35W, moving at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb
confirms dry air intrusion in the wave environment, which is
keeping the wave devoid of convection.

[Siker]

Land interaction with the Greater Antilles is an issue on the latest GFS and Euro. Curious what sort of wind shear environment this will have to deal with as it passes through that area; latest GFS develops decent anticyclonic flow aloft that gets displaced as the wave gets tangled with Hispaniola.

[NDG]

BTW, the name for this thread needs to be updated, this tropical wave's axis as of 06z today is near 35W.

[gatorcane]

Pretty good spin around 32W, 9N:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hurricaneman]

If this can go north or south of Hispaniola this may be something that has to be watched for a surprise tropical cyclone near The Bahamas and Florida and possibly the Carolinas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Siker]

Recon on call to investigate this Saturday if needed:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 281429
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 30/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 57.5W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


JWP

NNNN

[Hurricaneman]

Recon on call to investigate this Saturday if needed:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 281429
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 30/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 57.5W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


JWP

NNNN

Probably means it will be lemoned at 2 and invest by tonight or tomorrow

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[JaxGator]

Recon on call to investigate this Saturday if needed:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 281429
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 30/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 57.5W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


JWP

NNNN

Bears watching. I posted this on the 96L thread but then read the coordinates again. Sorry for the error.

[srainhoutx]

Look for this disturbance to be tagged INVEST 97L before long...

[Siker]

Torn apart by Hispaniola and Cuba again on the 12z GFS.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS sends it right through the big Caribbean islands again without development.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/758702743183847424

[USTropics]

This is most likely for our wave. Invest later today?

GENESIS010, AL, L, , , , , 72, 2016, DB, O, 2016072800, 9999999999, , 010, , , , GENESIS, , AL722016

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS sends it right through the big Caribbean islands again without development.

Yes but it looks like it tries to get going prior to Hispaniola. Have to thank those Greater Antilles and their mountainous terrain for keeping many systems at bay or weaker than they could have been for the U.S.

[Siker]

12z CMC similar to the 00z, this time into the TX / MX border.

[TheStormExpert]

Now stronger too showing a hurricane.

Trend with models in the past 24hrs. has been south over the Greater Antilles and into the Gulf of Mexico with nothing much left to track, except the crazy CMC.

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: Now stronger too showing a hurricane.

Trend with models in the past 24hrs. has been south over the Greater Antilles and into the Gulf of Mexico with nothing much left to track, except the crazy CMC.

If it moves south of the mountains what stops it from ramping up? I heard wind shear would be low. Warm water? No shear? Possibly no land interaction? CMC doesn't seem so crazy to me if this does not go over the islands.

[SFLcane]

Not impressed...Ive yet to see the ECM show significant development from any of these waves. GFS brings pouch 06L which HH is set to investigate through plenty of land interaction. willing to bet that HH mission will more then likely be cancelled. I guess I can take some wannabe waves in late july.