2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Darvince]

More:
http://imgur.com/a/8zg7M

[blp]

[]http://i.imgur.com/bCAQOK5.png[/img]
[]http://i.imgur.com/BJW5pUA.png[/img]
[]http://i.imgur.com/C7IN00I.png[/img]

More:
http://imgur.com/a/8zg7M
[]http://i.imgur.com/q6y5cDn.png[/img]
[]http://i.imgur.com/yUnXOyd.png[/img]

That is impressive. The question is how will they will handle the middle Atlantic which has been hostile with the sinking and dry air. I expect conditions to be better by then but we will see.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to form a tropical cyclone off the ITCZ at hr 240. I dont know about that, seems far fetched but some tropical cyclones have formed from such lows so we'll see if it can stay on the GFS or is a phantom storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS almost has 3 Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic at once @ 384hrs. with a hurricane in the Gulf heading WNW towards SE Texas.

The trend the last few runs of the GFS is the Atlantic should continue to heat up as we head into Mid-August.

[Siker]

That Texas storm is the wave about to exit Africa; 00z Euro shows it as a strong wave traversing the Caribbean and entering the Gulf at day 10.

[Siker]

06z GEFS has a lot of members developing this as it nears the Eastern Caribbean:

[stormhunter7]

Little more life to long range GFS today. Be curious to see if its still there in 00z

[stormwise]

Unusual appears to drift into the grid from the N then tracks SSW.

https://i.imgsafe.org/f31177d812.png
Edit same storm i latter located on EC ens,same final result as the above plot.

[La Breeze]

That Texas storm is the wave about to exit Africa; 00z Euro shows it as a strong wave traversing the Caribbean and entering the Gulf at day 10.

I know that this is really far out, but does anyone see a high pressure at this time protecting the Northern Gulf states?

[ninel conde]

With this pattern the eadt coast and GOM north of 22/23 should be safe thru at least mid august.

[jlauderdal]

With this pattern the eadt coast and GOM north of 22/23 should be safe thru at least mid august.

the ridge has been locked in since early july over florida..hottest july ever in FLL...drought conditions with all the convection pushed to the west each day..no sign of a let up in the pattern

[ninel conde]

Wish we could change places. trof has been locked in here since june. Yesterday was our 5th wettest day in history with 6.98 inches of rain. sick of it.

[tolakram]

Wish we could change places. trof has been locked in here since june. Yesterday was our 5th wettest day in history with 6.98 inches of rain. sick of it.

The trough is not locked in and you have to pick out the last frame of the GFS to show it. I mean good grief, just step through the current GFS run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

What do you mean by locked in? Help me understand what you are talking about here.

[ninel conde]

Wish we could change places. trof has been locked in here since june. Yesterday was our 5th wettest day in history with 6.98 inches of rain. sick of it.

The trough is not locked in and you have to pick out the last frame of the GFS to show it. I mean good grief, just step through the current GFS run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

What do you mean by locked in? Help me understand what you are talking about here.

I see the animation and its very unusual, or used to be unusual for summer. very progressive pattern with trof after trof crossing the coast, a very locked in pattern. What we arent seeing is a high locked in over new england, and i do try to define locked in often by saying a high locked in for weeks, or a full summer, not 2 or 3 days. Its the same over florida where our fellow poster says the ridge is locked in there, which it is.

[TheStormExpert]

Until this pattern changes every tropical wave will be buried into Central America.

[Florida1118]

Until this pattern changes every tropical wave will be buried into Central America.

Well, that is how patterns work lol...

[tolakram]

I see the animation and its very unusual, or used to be unusual for summer. very progressive pattern with trof after trof crossing the coast, a very locked in pattern. What we arent seeing is a high locked in over new england, and i do try to define locked in often by saying a high locked in for weeks, or a full summer, not 2 or 3 days. Its the same over florida where our fellow poster says the ridge is locked in there, which it is.

Based on looking through older weather maps I don't think locked in high pressure is normal, at all. If anything constantly alternating is the normal, one reason why the east coast doesn't get more hurricane hits. There's a reason the outer banks is hit so often as recurving hurricanes brush over them. What would be rare is to have a fixed high over New England in my opinion. This idea of any fixed pattern just doesn't sound right.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z UKMET is showing an area of low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico in a week:

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF joins the 00Z UKMET and tries to spin up something in the Northeastern/Northern Gulf on the 12Z run:

[weathaguyry]

Very interesting, lets see if any other models pick up on this in the coming days