Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[Siker]

0Z UKMET going with a strong TC

What does "STRONG" translate to in terms of wind / pressure?

[AJC3]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible as it remains
nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Steve]

Nasty in Bay County tonight. Last night it was Gulf & Franklin Counties to the southeast and Santa Rosa County to the west. There was a ton of cloud to ocean strikes to the west and more cloud to cloud to the southeast. Tonight it's overhead and a mix. Instability is obviously high and particularly at night as storms form on land and move offshore. It's howling, and it's raining hard. If anything forms, and gfs has the bulk of the storms off the Peninsula almost due south of Perry, it should be crawlingly slow. I expect some teases over the next few days, but I don't have a call either way other than leaning against any development at least til Sunday.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 0z UKMET was extremely bullish--72kt and 969mb in 144hr.

On the flip side, the new Euro just out shows the system remaining inland over Florida.

Lots to work out.

[Hammy]

It certainly seems some sort of low developing is a likelihood, even if inland (though that would obviously not be classified as anything. Hopefully we can get a good soaking in Georgia out of whatever forms at least.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it remains
nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[TheStormExpert]

Could someone post the 00z UKMET?

[Dean4Storms]

Could someone post the 00z UKMET?

Here is a link to whatever you want from it.........http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[tolakram]

Could someone post the 00z UKMET?

Look here for it: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Here's a snip of the latest 5 day. Shows a sit and spin basically in the same place for at least 3 days,

[stormwise]

[tropicwatch]

Hope it is not still in that position on Aug. 10th.

[Dean4Storms]

The UKMET is the one lone model this cycle of runs that makes this a tropical system, all the others keep this low bottled up just inland either over the peninsula and then moving north or over South GA and AL. A distance of development and track of this low by just a hundred miles or so could make all the difference in the world with what eventually unfolds!

[psyclone]

Someone from west central florida on up toward Mobile is likely to get heavy rain...and with slow movement of any disturbance. ..and extreme event can't be ruled out..this will be an interesting event to watch evolve. It seems like we get one or two really big summer rain events related to very warm coastal waters and we're still waiting for our whopper in my neck of the woods..this may be it.

[Dean4Storms]

Someone from west central florida on up toward Mobile is likely to get heavy rain...and with slow movement of any disturbance. ..and extreme event can't be ruled out..this will be an interesting event to watch evolve. It seems like we get one or two really big summer rain events related to very warm coastal waters and we're still waiting for our whopper in my neck of the woods..this may be it.

Ah, Palm Harbor. I just returned this past Sunday from a week in my RV at the Dunedin RV Resort. We loved the area with not so many tourists like here in Destin. Of course you could get your fill of them a tad south in Clearwater Bch.

[ronjon]

While the UKMET is the only model to develop a strong TC, both the ECM and GFS do show vorticity either off shore on very near shore. The ECM develops a weak system but moves it NW into the FL panhandle in 24 hours. Will definitely be watching as this disturbance is right in my backyard. Whether it develops or not, 7-day QPF totals were as high as 10 inches along the gulf coast counties north of Clearwater.

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro has a maxima of 44.81" of rain somewhere along the Florida East coast with widespread 10-20" totals WNW through the Florida Panhandle. It's definitely seeing something unusual!

[ronjon]

Yeah here's the 850 mb vorticity from 00Z Euro at 120 hrs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2016080500&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=88

[vbhoutex]

Not predicting anything, but reminds me a lot of Alicia "83. Lots of similarities, the weirdest of which is the timing almost to the day 33 years later both on a weather level and personal level.

[northjaxpro]

I tell you looking at the recent EURO runs , 100 miles may make a huge difference in terms if this system forms on the coast or off shore. It is going to be a close call with regards to proximity to land. .Either way, the very slow movement and deep moisture will likely guarantee very heavy rainfall potential anywhere from MS coast to the FL Big Bend, and to locales inland to Southern AL, and Southern GA. We hopefully will get better idea the next 48-72 hours.

[NDG]

Development or no development, the Euro paints a very wet scenario for much of central and northern FL, especially the Nature Coast that has to watch out for training effect with the area of low pressure forecasted to meander around through early next week.