Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

[floridasun78]

Time to go back to sleep for a few weeks.

we wake you when tropical wake up put yellow circle on map

[LarryWx]

The wave is no longer on the NHC weather outlook. Looks like further development is unlikely.

And once again the CMC failed horribly with those consecutive runs that had a solid TS (1st run) to H (2nd run) hit the east coast of FL 7 days out. I know someone said it has improved, but there is no excuse for those two runs when no other (respectable) global had anything even close to that that within 7 days. So, I think that JB's nickname of Crazy Uncle is still appropriate. It needs at least one respectable model's run to agree to have credibility the vast majority of the time imo. Nice call by floridasun78 about it not being a good model and to wait for other models to join in before believing it.

[gatorcane]

Seems this mid-level trough is firing off some pretty good convection east of the Bahamas with little movement. We have seen on occasion these mid and upper-level features drill down to the surface and models miss development. It's pretty uncommon with the models we have these days but still not out of the question (as we saw with Joaquin last year which did form around the same area)

A floater was moved to this area earlier today, saved image:

[gatorcane]

The disturbance is sitting in a pocket of decreasing shear as well..

[Weatherboy1]

Once again firing up some convection ... and at least worth a modest amount of interest if it persists overnight. Hmmm

[Steve H.]

This still remains an interesting feature east of the Bahamas and seems to be retrograding westward. Worth watching IMO in the quiet period.

[Steve H.]

This still remains an interesting feature east of the Bahamas and seems to be retrograding westward. Worth watching IMO in the quiet period.

[Kazmit]

The title of this topic should be updated, it's position is more to the east of the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

Agree. The area is about 250 miles east of the Bahamas at this time. It is analyzed as a surface trough east of The Bahamas, drifting westward on the 18Z TWD from NHC.

[floridasun78]

nice wave coming into islands

[JaxGator]

nice wave coming into islands

The wave that was east of the Bahamas is also now hitting Florida with showers and T-storms. The CMC model was right imo on track but definitely failed on intensity.