Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[tarheelprogrammer]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

And people said I was nuts in July for calling for around the same numbers for the rest of the season. Season could change but the amount of dry air is amazing right now coming off of Africa. The Atlantic is just not what it used to be and it seems to be getting worse not better. El Nino died and this season could end up even weaker than last season. Shocking.

You were. He's not serious. Come on man

Aint there a country song saying "Ive always been crazy" lol. I wear it like a badge of honor. Either way the season is not over and that goes both ways.

[PTrackerLA]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

And people said I was nuts in July for calling for around the same numbers for the rest of the season. Season could change but the amount of dry air is amazing right now coming off of Africa. The Atlantic is just not what it used to be and it seems to be getting worse not better. El Nino died and this season could end up even weaker than last season. Shocking.

You were. He's not serious. Come on man

He'll be back on here soon and post his REAL thoughts for the rest of the season.


Guys just remember this chart. We easily have 80%+ of the season to go at this date.


*Not a forecast just my personal opinion .

[AnnularCane]

And people said I was nuts in July for calling for around the same numbers for the rest of the season. Season could change but the amount of dry air is amazing right now coming off of Africa. The Atlantic is just not what it used to be and it seems to be getting worse not better. El Nino died and this season could end up even weaker than last season. Shocking.

I really doubt he's being serious. His "prediction" of 5/2/0 (which we have right now) is a strong clue. It would be foolish to declare the season completely over on August 9. Even slow seasons tend to show a burst of activity around the peak.

[crownweather]

The season cancel posts are pretty frustrating, in my opinion. Honestly, I don't blame wxman trolling with his own season cancel post and find it a little humorous. We still have a long ways to go in this season (only August 9th). Take for instance, 1998 - we did not have our first hurricane until late August with 7 named storms in just September that year. Another season, 1954, only had 2 named storms and 1 hurricane by this date & ended up with 3 major hurricane landfalls on the US East Coast between August 31st and October 15th.

So, MJO is in the west Pacific right now leaving the Atlantic quiet for now. I agree with wxman57 in that activity should pick up again towards late this month and Euro seasonal forecast takeaway is for a very active September (I don't have access to that chart, wish I did).

[tarheelprogrammer]

And people said I was nuts in July for calling for around the same numbers for the rest of the season. Season could change but the amount of dry air is amazing right now coming off of Africa. The Atlantic is just not what it used to be and it seems to be getting worse not better. El Nino died and this season could end up even weaker than last season. Shocking.

I really doubt he's being serious. His "prediction" of 5/2/0 (which we have right now) is a strong clue. It would be foolish to declare the season completely over on August 9. Even slow seasons tend to show a burst of activity around the peak.

Yeah when I read it I thought it said for the rest of the season those numbers and went back and said oops. Problems when you try to code and then take a peak on here lol.

[psyclone]

I posted over a month ago that August 10 is my standard "wake up" date...the time that even non weather geeks need to keep an eye on the tropics. It's remarkable how many "weather geeks" want to throw in the towel before the climo wake up date.

[wxman57]

I was at least somewhat surprised that a few of you thought I was serious. In 1998, the first hurricane didn't form until August 21st then there were 9 hurricanes that followed. While I think a revised ACE forecast of < 100 may be in order, I think we're going to have a big storm in the western Caribbean and Gulf this year. It won't end up with as much ACE as Joaquin last year, but it could still be a Cat 3 or 4.

[centuryv58]

I was at least somewhat surprised that a few of you thought I was serious. In 1998, the first hurricane didn't form until August 21st then there were 9 hurricanes that followed. While I think a revised ACE forecast of < 100 may be in order, I think we're going to have a big storm in the western Caribbean and Gulf this year. It won't end up with as much ACE as Joaquin last year, but it could still be a Cat 3 or 4.

You got me! Now back to shutter purchasing.

[tolakram]

I just looked at Africa to make sure those blobs didn't poof out all of the sudden.

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: I posted over a month ago that August 10 is my standard "wake up" date...the time that even non weather geeks need to keep an eye on the tropics. It's remarkable how many "weather geeks" want to throw in the towel before the climo wake up date.

I still like my 10/3/1 prediction for total numbers but I could see an extra hurricane thrown in there. Will stick with those numbers until I am wrong. Which I could no doubt be but that is the beauty of watching the tropics is unpredictability.

[blp]

I was at least somewhat surprised that a few of you thought I was serious. In 1998, the first hurricane didn't form until August 21st then there were 9 hurricanes that followed. While I think a revised ACE forecast of < 100 may be in order, I think we're going to have a big storm in the western Caribbean and Gulf this year. It won't end up with as much ACE as Joaquin last year, but it could still be a Cat 3 or 4.

Lol you got me. I did not realize the numbers you posted that should have been my clue. That was funny. For a minute I thought Ninel had hacked your account.

[weathaguyry]

I think that this season will have somewhere around 12 named storms, but may be lacking in hurricane and major hurricanes due to the high number of "slop" storms that form close to land and at high latitudes, although I cannot be sure, because Earl strengthened into a hurricane very quickly before making landfall, and I think if it would have stayed over water for 12 more hours it could have been a cat 2/ low end cat 3, so we will see there are for sure lots of mixed signals, we should know by September 10th what the fate of this season is, and we will see what NOAA has to say on Thursday

[Kingarabian]

Wxman57 would've crashed the forums if he let it play on for a few more hours .

[gatorcane]

I was at least somewhat surprised that a few of you thought I was serious. In 1998, the first hurricane didn't form until August 21st then there were 9 hurricanes that followed. While I think a revised ACE forecast of < 100 may be in order, I think we're going to have a big storm in the western Caribbean and Gulf this year. It won't end up with as much ACE as Joaquin last year, but it could still be a Cat 3 or 4.

I agree with Wxman here. I think we will get at least one big storm in the Western Caribbean this season. Earl should be a good indicator that the Western Caribbean is favorable this season without El Nino - Earl could have been BIG had it more time over water. The Gulf also is much more favorable. The low pressure area over the SE US we are tracking now could have been a name storm had it not been for land. Like Wxman, I also see some changes in about 10+ days from now which includes the Euro showing a pretty strong wave moving off Africa in consecutive runs and the GFS showing maybe some BOC development. Cape Verde season traditionally starts in mid-August, but as many have pointed out, it's what happens with these strong waves when they make it further west where conditions could be quite a bit more favorable

[OuterBanker]

Yes, the season over posts are irritating, but you learn to ignore them. There are some that think if there is no activity between June 1 and Dec 30 that the season is over. The true ramp up and heart of the season in reality is the eight-week period between Aug 15 and Oct 15. True, the MDR is dry as a bone right now and I don’t see anything developing for a week or so. I do agree that close in development is the real risk this year. The Gulf and the entire east coast of the US Sea surface temps are above normal and that truly concerns me. Mainly because storms that develop near the coast can ramp up quickly. A good example was Alex in 2004. It went from a minimal (35mph) tropical storm on Aug 1 18z to an 85 mph hurricane on Aug 3 at 12z, that’s only 42 hrs. Luckily, it went ene out to sea side swiping the outer banks. If it had headed nne along the east coast it would not have given ample time to prepare in one of the heaviest populated areas of the US. And by the way, you should also notice that the A storm didn’t form until Aug 1 2004. One of the most devastating and active seasons on record. It isn’t over yet.

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 would've crashed the forums if he let it play on for a few more hours .

was just thinking the same thing... Here is to a big ramp up in a few weeks.

[SFLcane]

All I care about is this window! Aug 20 till Oct 20. So we shall see

[USTropics]

If we're going to use the current ACE numbers to insinuate the rest of the season will be bust, we should also mention that we just witnessed the first hurricane in the Caribbean in 1379 days. More to the point, how the current season has progressed has no impact on the synoptics of the next 2-3 months. Will this be like 1998 or 2013? Come back November 30th to find out.

[Hammy]

Wxman57 would've crashed the forums if he let it play on for a few more hours .

was just thinking the same thing... Here is to a big ramp up in a few weeks.

Something else to note, I was going through the 2010 threads and was seeing similar posts about the quiet, that it would be a dead season because August was largely quiet beyond the start--then it got active around the 20th. Models didn't accurately show the extent of the activity (showing primarily strong storms rather than the major hurricanes that showed up) until about five days prior.

[wxman57]

I couldn't let y'all go on all day about my season-cancel post - too many of you were believing it.