ATL: HERMINE - Models

[USTropics]

The ridge is there in the 12z ECMWF at 216 hours as well, the major difference obviously being development between the two runs:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If, and that's a big if, the general GFS outlined scenario verifies everything will hinge on two primary factors: the strength of the NE High and that of the Midwest shortwave.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll go ahead and say I'll look for the 00z run to shift further east. Typical model watching, windshield wiper back and forth till they lock in on a solution. Usually somewhere in the average mean is correct. The fact the GFS continues to show a significant TC run after run is concerning. The fact the Euro continues to show nothing is perplexing.

SFT

[northjaxpro]

I am not going to get carried away just yet. Lots of time to watch this unfold. However, I will point out the reliable models have been consistent in building the ridge across the Atlantic during the.next week or so. I will say it is a rather decent possibility that this potential cyclone will traverse far west as time progresses.

[beoumont]

This prog spells at least category 4. A Distinct 200 low embedded inside a huge 200 high. It's good 9-10 day progs are extremely unlikely to verify.

[JaxGator]

It is rare these days to have a landfall here in Jax and Southeast Georgia but one of our Mets here in Jax, John Gaughan (WJXT Channel 4) has said that according to NHC research, there were 6 hurricanes to have hit here in the 1800s. 5 hit from the east and one from the west. The 1898 hurricane hit in almost the same spot as a Cat 4 that the latest GFS run has 99L/Gaston making landfall near the state line. Thankfully more runs to go but that one was scary.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS and EURO are all bullish with no center point. So take it with a grain of salt but a spaghetti full of excitement.

[Bocadude85]

I'll go ahead and say I'll look for the 00z run to shift further east. Typical model watching, windshield wiper back and forth till they lock in on a solution. Usually somewhere in the average mean is correct. The fact the GFS continues to show a significant TC run after run is concerning. The fact the Euro continues to show nothing is perplexing.

SFT

I'd would bet the 0Z is slightly further east as well. The models while trend east and then west again until they lock onto a location. I also agree that the final outcome is usually somewhere in between the early model runs.

[Hammy]

So when was the last time the GFS has more than one run that hit the mainland with a major?

Erika last year.

[tolakram]

So when was the last time the GFS has more than one run that hit the mainland with a major?

Erika last year.

Are you sure? I know it showed some crazy loop, and maybe hit once, but not two direct hits did it? Not that it means anything, just curious. Going to find the Erika model thread....

[SeGaBob]

It won't landfall in Ga.

[perk]

:eek: !! Andrew 2

Do you really wanna go there ten days out.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post 18z Hwrf or Gfdl?

[CrazyC83]

For all we know this could stay below 10N and bump into South America.

[xcool22]

i have a very good questions do the nhc getting see GFS before we do

[Frank2]

The latest TWO seems to go with the model trend of another zonal system. The NHC forecaster wouldn't mention the Eastern Caribbean if not confident of the model trend favoring a westward moving system...

[Bocadude85]

The latest TWO seems to go with the model trend of another zonal system. The NHC forecaster wouldn't mention the Eastern Caribbean if not confident of the model trend favoring a westward moving system...

The models are forecasting this system to move into the Eastern Caribbean...

[Yellow Evan]

The latest TWO seems to go with the model trend of another zonal system. The NHC forecaster wouldn't mention the Eastern Caribbean if not confident of the model trend favoring a westward moving system...

I think they're factoring in general the eastward bias of the GFS in these sort of situations.

[tolakram]

UKMET graphic updated.

You can see it tracks it to the islands then loses it as the center appears to move NW over Hispaniola.

[Siker]

UKMET graphic updated.

You can see it tracks it to the islands then loses it as the center appears to move NW over Hispaniola.

Awesome, thanks.