ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Blown Away]

18z model guidance lifted 99L's future track a little farther N from Hispaniola... The 18z intensity predictions increased significantly, so I think land interaction played a big role in previous runs possibly due to a big circulation trying to pull together and deal with land at same time... JMHO

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the graphic. UKMET shows development now in Bahamas as other noted.

http://oi64.tinypic.com/16gbxja.jpg

A little more bullish than 00z.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still seems odd to me that you could have a vort max in the Bahamas this time of year with a relatively moist atmosphere, moderate wind shear, and get minimal development. From what I'm seeing on the simulated IR page, it appears the shear might be a little too much for the small vortex. That being said, anytime you get a disturbance in the Bahamas in late August it's worth watching.

We have reframe our line of thinking... the Atlantic basin is just not a very favorable basin for TC genesis and development. Waves developing into storms are the exception, not the norm. The Pacific basins are much more favorable on average.

That's fine and dandy from a climatological perspective, however, the same physical mechanisms that result in TC genesis apply to all basins. The models are showing a lower-tropospheric vorticity maximum in an environment that seems relatively favorable for TC genesis. I was calling into question the mechanism(s) explaining why the models do not display genesis. My hypothesis for the GFS is the shear caused by an upper-tropospheric low to the NW of 99L. That being said, the shear doesn't seem all that strong. It appears the Euro doesn't result in TC genesis because 99L loses enough vorticity by the time it arrives in the Bahamas that the disturbance is unable to amplify.

[SeGaBob]

18z model guidance lifted 99L's future track a little farther N from Hispaniola... The 18z intensity predictions increased significantly, so I think land interaction played a big role in previous runs possibly due to a big circulation trying to pull together and deal with land at same time... JMHO

Just curious, where do you find that kind of stuff?

[SouthDadeFish]

The 12Z GEFS seem to be in better agreement than the 06Z run:

[hohnywx]

18z model guidance lifted 99L's future track a little farther N from Hispaniola... The 18z intensity predictions increased significantly, so I think land interaction played a big role in previous runs possibly due to a big circulation trying to pull together and deal with land at same time... JMHO

Can you post a graphic of the 18z intensity models?

[jlauderdal]

UKMET is an intensifying TS into South Florida. Graphics here:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

the ukmet talking the place of the gfs for a south florida strike...another model storm for miami...mosquitos in miami far bigger concern at this point

I wouldn't rule out a tropical storm impact on South Florida. Seems like a reasonable forecast/ guess to me.

i wouldnt rule anything out with model runs beyond 5 days...one of these days we are going to get nailed

[Blown Away]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
Scroll down to 99L... On my phone can't post pics...

[SeGaBob]

I wonder if that will have any influence on the GFS at 18z...

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: I wonder if that will have any influence on the GFS at 18z...

Stay tuned...we'll know in about an hour.

[chaser1]

18z model guidance lifted 99L's future track a little farther N from Hispaniola... The 18z intensity predictions increased significantly, so I think land interaction played a big role in previous runs possibly due to a big circulation trying to pull together and deal with land at same time... JMHO

While I totally agree with the general premise (pages back I had posted that I thought one of the things going on with the GFS developing and then dropping 99L developing was its interaction with land), With regard to the number of models forecasting development, i'm not sure I am really seeing the 18Z intensity models being all that much more bullish than they were at 6Z or 12Z?? Seems to me somewhat familier to the prior runs.

[Kazmit]

Here, the 18z intensity models. Notice the increase in intensity as appose to this morning's guidances. Probably due to less land interaction with Hispaniola, as many models now show 99L heading north of it.

[SeGaBob]

18z Gfs is starting

[StormHunter72]

Models seem to show a gradual yet significant intensification. Seems like sal and mjo are the important factors here.

[JaxGator]

Hasn't the GFS been known storms so far this year right before they form? Just wondering? What would help the models also would be recon data.

[WeatherEmperor]

Please post the 18z Gfs. Im on my phone and dont have my browser favorites here

[Bocadude85]

Through 60hours the 18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z...maybe a tad further north on the 18Z

[Bocadude85]

Tropical Depression moving into the central Antilles at 84 hours

[Blown Away]

Through 60hours the 18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z...maybe a tad further north on the 18Z

Tad North's could be important???

[tarheelprogrammer]

Tad bit south at hour 114.