ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#981 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:22 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Kicks and giggles. Latest CMC has a 977 mb landfall in Wilmington in 228 (NC that is). If it's the Canadaian is a sure thing it won't happen.


The ridge is probably too strong for that. I don't see anything getting north of 31N.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#982 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:22 pm

90L is a monster!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#983 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:22 pm

18z GFS... 156 Hours... Pressure 1006 on 18z vs 1011 on 12z... 100+ miles east of 12z position
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#984 Postby Siker » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:22 pm

Not gonna be a recurve, ridge seems to be grabbing it at 162.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#985 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:23 pm

Your trap door opens..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#986 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:23 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:90L is a monster!!!

Yes, but I feel the GFS is overdoing it a little.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#987 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:23 pm

SFLcane wrote:Your trap door opens..... :lol:

A trap door?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#988 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:23 pm

turning to the west between hours 150 and 174. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#989 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:24 pm

SFLcane wrote:Your trap door opens..... :lol:

Sorry no trap door opens.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#990 Postby N2FSU » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:25 pm

+156hr

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#991 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:25 pm

Crazy run, the remains of Fiona, 99L, and 90L all within the same proximity:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#992 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:25 pm

Motion is still west through 180 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#993 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:25 pm

Not sure this makes the coast before the next trough gets it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#994 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:26 pm

N2FSU wrote:+156hr

Image


99L is on the left and 90L on the right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#995 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:26 pm

Maybe a little south of due west at 180.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#996 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:26 pm

Alyono wrote:Not sure this makes the coast before the next trough gets it

Yeah you can already see it digging out of Michigan @ 180hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#997 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:26 pm

18z GFS... 174 Hours... Maybe TD now... Seems more drift towards W begins E of Bahamas...
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#998 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:27 pm

Trough coming. At least it appears so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#999 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:27 pm

GFS is WAY slower on this than the ECMWF and UKMET. Beyond 5 days and certainly 7 days like we are looking at now, take it with a grain of salt!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1000 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS is WAY slower on this than the ECMWF and UKMET. Beyond 5 days and certainly 7 days like we are looking at now, take it with a grain of salt!


Its not that different from the uk
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