ATL: HERMINE - Models

[stormlover2013]

man o man yeah still longs way out, over a week away...

[chaser1]

My worry is that the Euro is breaking down that ridge too quickly as it tends to do that. Louisiana can't deal with this at the moment. Not that anyone else wants to.

I'd lean toward agreeing with that premise. Though I'm more inclined to think Central/West Fla. panhandle myself. Bottom line is that if this storm were to cross south or central Fla., than Louisiana could very well be in play

[JPmia]

Well that EURO is going to raise some eyebrows here in FL.. Note also that is very rare to have a major hitting the Big Bend area of FL coast.

[Aric Dunn]

this is also all assuming it does not form or strengthen earlier over bahamas in which case could be even stronger for both landfalls.

[Kingarabian]

Well that run got freaky real quick towards the end.

Let's all just sit patiently and monitor to see if there's an overall trend. Sure the Euro has preformed better than the GFS, but it's been flip flopping just as well.

[Florida1118]

Thankfully it's 216 hours out.

Unfortunately it's the Euro which once it locks in on something it's almost certain to happen. Of course it's 9 days out though and change is likely.

Over the past few days, have we really not learned anything about making definite statements? I think "certain to happen" is quite ridiculous, especially on a single model run 8 to 9 days out. If this run showed at TS, I doubt you'd declare it "almost certain to happen". COULD it happen? Yes. But let's not pretend the Euro has been correct all along, or that there isn't going to be errors. I figured some of us would have learned that over the dramatics we've had over the past few days. It was one run, it's guidance - certainly is not a guaranteed doom as you make it seem.

[ronjon]

Well 99L will have everyone's attention the next week or so. Not ready to panic or be concerned just yet - if the forecasted mid-level ridge is still there in the models two days from now - then I'll start worrying. This situation looks analogous pattern-wise to Katrina in 2005 or dare I say Andrew in 1992.

[stormlover2013]

what I am gathering from this, seems to me that the ridge is getting stronger and stronger on each run!!

[Siker]

942mb at second landfall on full-res.

[RL3AO]

Very similar to Katrina. Develops in Bahamas, RI before hitting Miami, and then into the Gulf. Something under a ridge in the Bahamas in August needs to be watched very very closely.

[AutoPenalti]

http://i.imgur.com/HL0KRh7.png

What has been seen, cannot be unseen.

[NDG]

[PTrackerLA]

Hi-res has 942mb at landfall 240 hrs

[SouthFLTropics]

this is also all assuming it does not form or strengthen earlier over bahamas in which case could be even stronger for both landfalls.

This is very true...If conditions are favorable we could realistically see a double hurricane landfall into Florida. Once on the East Coast and another as it pulls north and east around the ridge.

SFT

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone,

Been on the board for several days watching reading. But with the latest run's it would appear we should start being a little concerned her in S, FLA and FL in general. Its still a ways out there but it seems most of the models are zeroing in on our area. With the High being so strong and not weakening, as someone on this page mentioned there is the possibility that the high keeps it a bit further south as it moves over FLA.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A truly disastrous model run if there ever was one. Thank goodness it is so far out in time, which is its only saving grace far as I can tell.

[SeGaBob]

I'd get impacts IF that panned out looks like.

[stormlover2013]

similar to rita also if it goes through the Florida Straits

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF is your classic hit from the east for South Florida with the system riding up the Greater Antilles just to the north and avoiding the land interaction. This is the first time since 2008 (Ike) that South Florida may really need to watch something from the east with a real legitimate threat. In the case of IKE the ridge was much stronger than the models though this far out including the ECMWF thought and Ike went south of Florida hitting Cuba instead.

[LarryWx]

942mb at second landfall on full-res.

Whereas I do think there is potential for 99L to be stronger than the 994 or so mb when it is exiting W FL due to the very warm Bahama waters and strong ridge to the north, I do not think a fall of 52 mb from when it exits W FL to when it approaches the Big bend is at all realistic. I think this is an example of when the Euro overstrengthens TC's that are north of 25N. Looking back at history for the far NE GOM off of W FL, this in not realistic imo. OTOH, IF it were to exit W FL at much lower than the 994 mb shown, that would be a different story.