ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768130763917234176

Like my last post now i am wondering because of 99s large size if the remnants of fiona get eaten up and help out the atmosphere for 99

[PTrackerLA]

So basically if the 12z Euro does an about face and goes towards GFS, there's suddenly very little model support. Crazy.

[Bocadude85]

12z HWRF looses it, lol

Maybe the GFS will be right? Would be a big win if it is.

[stormlover2013]

yep yep but I said the UKmet is still on board

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

12z HWRF looses it, lol

Maybe the GFS will be right? Would be a big win if it is.

Yeah cause while hwrf has been extremely bullish theyve been the more accurate overachiever and gfs has been looking like the redheaded stepchild

[Aric Dunn]

very odd run..

[stormlover2013]

thing is all the models have been up and down and struggling and I mean all of them...they have not been consistent but we have no center for models to get a good grasp on it

[Bocadude85]

very odd run..

Im assuming that part of the circulation gets tangled with Hispaniola

[Hurricaneman]

thing is all the models have been up and down and struggling and I mean all of them...they have no been consistent but we have no center for models to get a good grasp on it

looks like we might have a center now, and its father north than initialized in all models

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[SFLcane]

so most models drop development..

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

thing is all the models have been up and down and struggling and I mean all of them...they have no been consistent but we have no center for models to get a good grasp on it

I think by the 2am update or tomorrow morning there will be a better handle on it with two potential centers one of them looking more defined than the other, one is bound to win the battle to become center and allow models to finally be less erratic

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF has it coming back to life in the SE Bahamas.

[Bocadude85]

:double: so most models drop development..

The HWRF has a tropical storm at 69 hours in the SE Bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf after that few hours of losing it has a TS again lol.. maybe just a glitch or something lol

[NDG]

Looks like 12z HWRF is picking 99L back up again at 69 hr. It had it interacting with Fiona's vorticity, maybe why it lost if for a little while.

[tolakram]

:double: so most models drop development..

Too much needless chatter in here, please people.

HWRF still running and is picking up a center that moved off of Hispaniola. Seems to be this is a pretty classic case of models not locking into a feature well enough.

[RL3AO]

:double: so most models drop development..

Too much needless chatter in here, please people.

HWRF still running and is picking up a center that moved off of Hispaniola. Seems to be this is a pretty classic case of models not locking into a feature well enough.

[ img]http://i.imgur.com/GHqoCbS.png[/img]

I guess we will find out tomorrow night assuming the NASA sondes get into the model.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM with a hurricane passing through the FL Keys

[Aric Dunn]

ok just checked in detail. the HWRF never lost it. from 51hrs to 54hr the "L" just south to the coast of HR but if you look north you can see the TS is still there in the bahamas. then from 54 to 60 hrs it all recombines. not sure why it did that.. maybe just the coding.

then between 60 hrs and 78 it shows two vorts that rotate around each other.. maybe HR interactions screwed the model up.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system hitting the Keys and what looks like maybe a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf.