ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Nice loop showing what appears to be the system trying to stack

Oh GAWD... this thing is seriously blowing out outflow to its N.E. and S.W.! Big time difluence aloft

As good as it is looking, I'm skeptical that it clears the Greater Antilles without disrupting itself. It needs to start gaining latitude to avoid the big islands.

I think you're right to some degree but should that occur, that might only lesson the eventual impact to South/Central Florida. It'll have little ultimate impact on those along its path

[gatorcane]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

To add to what some folks said, the other issue here is the potential for rapid strengthening when it is a few days away or at least for it to go from depression to hurricane in relatively short amount of time like the Euro shows. A lot of folks thinks these storms need to be well-defined by now to be anything significant for us.

[centuryv58]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

To add to what some folks said, the other issue here is the potential for rapid strengthening when it is a few days away or at least for it to go from depression to hurricane in relatively short amount of time like the Euro shows. A lot of folks thinks these storms need to be well-defined by now to be anything significant for us.

YES, I agree. No lines anywhere, plenty of bottled water. Home Depot et al. quiet.

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Absolutely. Complacency kicks in. Though, in my opinion, I believe most South Floridians treat minimal hurricanes differently. A couple examples: My mom had to work at IHOP the day Hurricane Irene hit back in 1999. They closed the restaurant when (naturally) conditions went south and my mom's Camaro ended up getting flooded out as she tried to drive back into the neighborhood.

Another example would be Katrina in 2005 (which is becoming the analog for this potential storm) where many people were out doing their business and having a normal Friday night despite a (rapidly intensifying) landfalling hurricane.

I remember both of these instances very well. I recall watching Katrina coverage on the local news and they showed traffic cameras from Davie of 595 packed with commuters driving home during rush hour as Katrina was coming ashore.

Irene came up from the South in October and was supposed to go up the west coast. Local high school football was being played that night and the game went on as Irene was coming ashore on the Southern tip of Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

To add to what some folks said, the other issue here is the potential for rapid strengthening when it is a few days away or at least for it to go from depression to hurricane in relatively short amount of time like the Euro shows. A lot of folks thinks these storms need to be well-defined by now to be anything significant for us.

YES, I agree. No lines anywhere, plenty of bottled water. Home Depot et al. quiet.

Give it time...once it's classified and the NHC initiates advisories the media will be all over it...then the chaos begins.

[BobHarlem]

Oh GAWD... this thing is seriously blowing out outflow to its N.E. and S.W.! Big time difluence aloft

As good as it is looking, I'm skeptical that it clears the Greater Antilles without disrupting itself. It needs to start gaining latitude to avoid the big islands.

Yeah, this is getting closer and closer to Hispaniola. This could destroy 99L ala Ericka.

It's almost at Puerto Rico's latitude now based on surface obs, I don't see that really happening.

[WeatherEmperor]

I may be wrong but until this clears Hispanola to the north I am not totally worried just yet. Somebody just mentioned Erika from last year and I have that in my mind too. Every single model had Erika move north of Hispanola but Erika defied the models and went south and the rest is history. Again, I am probably being silly but I need to see it happen first

[JaxGator]

Nice loop showing what appears to be the system trying to stack

Oh GAWD... this thing is seriously blowing out outflow to its N.E. and S.W.! Big time difluence aloft

As good as it is looking, I'm skeptical that it clears the Greater Antilles without disrupting itself. It needs to start gaining latitude to avoid the big islands.

As far as the NHC knows, it's moving WNW but what do I know.

[JaxGator]

I may be wrong but until this clears Hispanola to the north I am not totally worried just yet. Somebody just mentioned Erika from last year and I have that in my mind too. Every single model had Erika move north of Hispanola but Erika defied the models and went south and the rest is history. Again, I am probably being silly but I need to see it happen first

I think wind shear and El-Nino was the primary problem and it was screaming where 99L is now. It has a anti-cyclone overhead and no El-Nino this time but still, anything can happen right?

[Hammy]

I may be wrong but until this clears Hispanola to the north I am not totally worried just yet. Somebody just mentioned Erika from last year and I have that in my mind too. Every single model had Erika move north of Hispanola but Erika defied the models and went south and the rest is history. Again, I am probably being silly but I need to see it happen first

I don't see this much as being similar to Erika, two major differences stand out--Erika was moving significantly faster, and it was under quite a bit of shear as well. And if I remember correctly the Euro had already given up on intensification at this point and was largely forecasting what played out.

[Bocadude85]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Personally I do feel the hurricane drought has caused me to be very lax when it comes to a threat. The lack of storms and the storms that were forecast to head this way and did not leads to me being very complacent, I always am expecting the storm to suddenly change course or weaken unexpectedly or in this case never develop.

[SeGaBob]

If this does anything like what the Euro shows we'll have no problem surpassing the model page count.

[Nederlander]

hard for me to tell but the center (if there is one) looks like it may pass right over Antigua or just north of there.. I dont see Hispaniola being a huge concern at this point if that center stays to the north...

[chaser1]

OMG, I just had a scary thought! Hermine clears/forms just north of Hispanola, moves briskly toward the WNW looking like the 594 high parked over Georgia will steer it through the Florida Straits BUT THEN "it happens". The dreaded "Ninel-Trough" rears its ugly head dipping south from Greenland and along the CONUS E. Coast just far enough to break down the blocking High, and suddenly cause a call/ neutral steering where an intensifying Hermine just 20 miles south of Islamorada simply stalls and deepens for 36 hours (nightmares tonight!)

[centuryv58]

OMG, I just had a scary thought! Hermine clears/forms just north of Hispanola, moves briskly toward the WNW looking like the 594 high parked over Georgia will steer it through the Florida Straits BUT THEN "it happens". The dreaded "Ninel-Trough" rears its ugly head dipping south from Greenland and along the CONUS E. Coast just far enough to break down the blocking High, and suddenly cause a call/ neutral steering where an intensifying Hermine just 20 miles south of Islamorada simply stalls and deepens for 36 hours (nightmares tonight!)

You know, I was wondering where he/she was too. His "permanent EC trough" might be welcome about now.

[AutoPenalti]

OMG, I just had a scary thought! Hermine clears/forms just north of Hispanola, moves briskly toward the WNW looking like the 594 high parked over Georgia will steer it through the Florida Straits BUT THEN "it happens". The dreaded "Ninel-Trough" rears its ugly head dipping south from Greenland and along the CONUS E. Coast just far enough to break down the blocking High, and suddenly cause a call/ neutral steering where an intensifying Hermine just 20 miles south of Islamorada simply stalls and deepens for 36 hours (nightmares tonight!)

That would be catastrophic.

[Nederlander]

Lol saw this earlier on TWC and had to find it and share.. With all this model/satellite watching, we all need some comic relief every now and then...

[shortwave]

Like the video posted by Levi Cowan. I do not think Hispaniola will be a factor despite the visually impressive looking MLC vorticity at the south part of the wave. Based on observations and satellite imagery the main focal point of lower level convergence is to the north and will remain there. The wave is not doing anything different from what the consensus of the models have been predicting. Given that none of the latest models thus far have a strong hurricane impacting the east coast of Florida at this time due to moderate dry air impedment and uncertain upper level conditions. Of course this can change, but having more specific data such as future RH values sampled form a GIV for the air column in the area the invest is heading for would really help.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol,

To Funny his famous Greenland Circle or something to that affect.

[AdamFirst]

Like the video posted by Levi Cowan. I do not think Hispaniola will be a factor despite the visually impressive looking MLC vorticity at the south part of the wave. Based on observations and satellite imagery the main focal point of lower level convergence is to the north and will remain there.

It also looked for a few frames on satellite the mid-level spin to the south was attempting consolidation to the north.