2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tolakram]

It's rare for cape verde storms to hit the US. As the pros have said earlier, we need to keep an eye out for in close development. I suspect we won't have more the a week of warning from the models for something that develops in close.

[Siker]

Albeit it's very long range, the Euro and GFS (and their ensembles) both agree on a very healthy wave with development potential emerging off the African coast in 9-10 days and another in 12-13 days. In fact, the 15 day GFS and the 15 day Euro control run are virtually identical in depicting a hurricane NE of the Caribbean and a TS WSW of Cape Verde.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Along with the ramp up in overall activity here in the Atlantic basin, big factors whether the CONUS will be impacted will naturally come down to steering and the timing and location of tropical genesis.

Until there is an actual developed storm that the global models have better latched onto, is my belief that all of the models are less consistant in their forecast runs than they used to be. The models can simply be tools used toward refining forecasts, but far less accurately toward forecasting tropical development in general. Its in that vein that I think the Global "tea-leaves" lead me to guess that the CONUS may well have 2 hurricane landfalls between now and September 5.

As a Poll based on your translating the Global Model "Tea-Leaves" - How many named T.S. (or stronger) tropical cyclones do YOU think will make U.S. landfall between now and Sept. 5?
__Zero
__1
__2
__3 or more?

I'm SO holding pat with my guess that 2 Tropical Storms or Hurricanes will make CONUS landfall by Sept. 5. Fiona looks to be tracking 270 degrees. The closest influence that I can see where an argument can be made for a northward turn is what might appear as a weak TUTT feature that shows up at 850mb, 500mb, and at 200mb. I say weak because the reflection at 500mb and lower in the atmosphere appears far less daunting than in most years. This seems to echo one of my take away's from this season. For most of this summer, our familier friend TUTT seems to be much weaker than recent years. The other take away is that Ninel Conde must have taken up another hobby because I havn't heard any conversation recently regarding "the East Coast Trough" - because there isn't one. Instead, we have a fairly persistant 591mb - 594mb parked over Tenn., Georgia, or N. Fla. Its this steering mechanism that I am increasingly concerned will cause Fiona as a Cat. 1 hurricane to make landfall first, followed by Hermine (presently 99L) as a Cat. 2 or stronger about 2 days afterward. As for Gaston (90L)?? Thats not all that easy to say with all that water to traverse. I'll say this though, just as I had harped a couple of days ago about not seeing how/why NHC and all the models were seeing some mystery weakness causing 90L to nearly immediately turn N.W., it is interesting how NHC's cone (along with most models too) seems to progressively become more and more westward with each model run. Odds are that it would recurve, but I'm not seeing it yet. Hope I'm wrong about ALL of this....

Interestingly, a week ago most people were sure that there would be little or no development until perhaps the very end of the month. Three to five days from now we could very well have two additional named storms and potentially 3 named storms spining in the Atlantic at the same time. The Atlantic is in a negative MJO phase but I cant help but wonder if such positive and negative phases are enhanced differently during the climatological peak of hurricane season as well as during positive ENSO events as compared to ENSO neutral or transitioning toward ENSO cooling events?

[Alyono]

Models showing some possible Hawaii action late next week

[terstorm1012]

It's rare for cape verde storms to hit the US. As the pros have said earlier, we need to keep an eye out for in close development. I suspect we won't have more the a week of warning from the models for something that develops in close.

agreed. I am terribly concerned about this for this season.

[NDG]

Ninel Conde's 10 year East Coast trough pattern for this season again is no where to be found during the past few weeks

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ninel Conde's 10 year East Coast trough pattern for this season again is no where to be found during the past few weeks

His curse wore off.

[Brent]

LR GFS is doomy tonight

[Kingarabian]

More doom in the EPAC.

[Brent]

Euro too

[TheStormExpert]

Long range but the 00z GFS & Euro both agree on a tropical wave exiting Africa in 6-7 days and tracking across the Tropical Atlantic.

[tolakram]

Out in LaLa land the GFS has this riding right up through the Bahamas.

[centuryv58]

Out in LaLa land the GFS has this riding right up through the Bahamas.

I agree, but with the GFS success (hard to say that) and the Euro fail on 99L--maybe the GFS should be watched here.

[centuryv58]

Out in LaLa land the GFS has this riding right up through the Bahamas.

I agree, but with the GFS success (hard to say that) and the Euro fail on 99L--maybe the GFS should be watched here.

[gatorcane]

Euro has another big one coming off Africa with almost immediate development in 5 days. Looks to race west across the Atlantic under a ridge. By the way just because the Euro may have busted on 99L doesn't mean it will for the next system...

[SouthFLTropics]

Out in LaLa land the GFS has this riding right up through the Bahamas.

I agree, but with the GFS success (hard to say that) and the Euro fail on 99L--maybe the GFS should be watched here.

I wouldn't read too much into that...If I recall the GFS last week showed 99L as a strong Cat 4 heading towards South Florida. So far we've seen how that's played out. Bottom line is that as complex and fluid of a subject that the environment is, nothing is an exact science. I personally wouldn't put much stock in any model past 3 days right now.

SFT

[cycloneye]

12z Euro continues to show wave developning into a Hurricane moving west.Emerges Africa on the 30th.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro has another big one coming off Africa with almost immediate development in 5 days. Looks to race west across the Atlantic under a ridge. By the way just because the Euro may have busted on 99L doesn't mean it will for the next system...

After busting HARD with 99L I need to see at least a few examples of it being on top again before believing anything it has to show.

BTW, the GFS no longer develops this and stop developing it several runs ago.

[JaxGator]

Euro has another big one coming off Africa with almost immediate development in 5 days. Looks to race west across the Atlantic under a ridge. By the way just because the Euro may have busted on 99L doesn't mean it will for the next system...

After busting HARD with 99L I need to see at least a few examples of it being on top again before believing anything it has to show.

BTW, the GFS no longer develops this and stop developing it several runs ago.

It still develops it. Just weaker. Probably a run or two and then yeah.

[PTrackerLA]

Euro Ensemble control run has that same system going all the way into the Gulf over Cuba by day 15. Obviously, lots of salt needed