ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Siker]

After mixing out dry air through the first 72 hours, HWRF intensifying on approach to extreme South Florida:

[SFLcane]

HWRF has what looks like a soon to be hurricane off miami

Powerful hurricane nearing South Florida indeed..

[Bocadude85]

Strengthening hurricane heading for Dade county at 117 hours

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082400&fh=117&xpos=0&ypos=557

[Aric Dunn]

ok hwrf back to normal... next hopefully the GFS on next run..

[La Breeze]

We should be glad the CMC is a terrible model, since it stalls Hermine over SE Louisiana for about 2 days. Given what they have been through, that would be beyond comprehension...

Not just SE LA - many are homeless and houses still with water in them here in SouthCentral/SW LA. Please let it go somewhere else or die altogether.

[Kingarabian]

Main event is in 45 minutes folks!

That's easier for you to say since it's still dinner time there and not way past bedtime.

[Siker]

There's the RI:

[Bocadude85]

Wow HWRF making at run at major hurricane status as it landfalls in extreme SFla...this would have came in a little further north had it not taken a random southwest dive @ 108 hours.

[ronyan]

HWRF has a cat 4 @ 123 hr!
Edit: If I am interpreting the max wind correctly, doesn't look like the pressure is low enough for cat 4.

[AutoPenalti]

That random SW jog seems a little unrealistic with an intensifying hurricane.

[JtSmarts]

HWRF Simulated IR. I remember it doing really well with 2014's Arthur, the depiction was fairly accurate.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro stronger

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

HWRF Simulated IR. I remember it doing really well with 2014's Arthur, the depiction was fairly accurate.

if these HWRF models pan out in terms of size and strength, future hermine might not even be phased by any possibly shear and just chug on through like a steamroller

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is a lot more bullish through 48 hrs:

[AtlanticWind]

Slightly south on euro

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro @ hr 48:

[Aric Dunn]

euro is going to bomb out ... and very similar again to previous runs...

[Kingarabian]

[Hammy]

Looks like it'll be a more steady track towards S Florida rather than a NW->W curve.

[fci]

That random SW jog seems a little unrealistic with an intensifying hurricane.

Actually it follows exactly what Katrina did as it was intensifying when it came ashore at the Broward/Dade line.
Katrina wasn't nearly as deep as this model projection is but it took the same SW dive as it came inland.