ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1801 Postby Joe Snow » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:26 pm

JaxGator wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... :double: I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9


still just like before south of that boundary there are plenty of west winds... the carnival valor though was very close to the center and still showed wsw.. now has east wind..

hard to say but maybe get a reformation where the convection is. there is a lot of vorticity there


What are the odds that the NHC will see these measurements? They'll help for sure.


They should have them already, I have a feed from NOAA through a software subscription. Thunderstorms a popping up out front and the echo tops are building.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1802 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:29 pm

Latest 2:15:00Z frame shows even more impressive convection with that burst. Extremely cold cloud tops.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1803 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:29 pm

Look at those sst's near Florida.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1804 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:2:15:00Z frame shows even more impressive convection with that burst. Extremely cold cloud tops.


Floaters seem to be up to an hour delayed from what you're seeing. What source are you using?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1805 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:31 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
gatorcane wrote:2:15:00Z frame shows even more impressive convection with that burst. Extremely cold cloud tops.


Floaters seem to be up to an hour delayed from what you're seeing. What source are you using?


Rammb floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1806 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
gatorcane wrote:2:15:00Z frame shows even more impressive convection with that burst. Extremely cold cloud tops.


Floaters seem to be up to an hour delayed from what you're seeing. What source are you using?


Rammb floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

or

for better night time...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1807 Postby Joe Snow » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:35 pm

Image

Current Echo Tops...................
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1808 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:36 pm

Joe Snow wrote:Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... :double: I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

I'm guessing the passengers have hardly noticed anything, due to both the ship's size and its stabilizers. But I could be wrong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1809 Postby Joe Snow » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:38 pm

abajan wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... :double: I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

I'm guessing the passengers have hardly noticed anything, due to both the ship's size and its stabilizers. But I could be wrong.


They were right under the heaviest Thunderstorm, they may not have noticed the waves but the rain and lighting for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1810 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:39 pm

abajan wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... :double: I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

I'm guessing the passengers have hardly noticed anything, due to both the ship's size and its stabilizers. But I could be wrong.


Well if theres anyone like me on the ship then they're feeling it. I could feel a lot of movement and jerkyness on my cruise this year and it was mostly calm waves on my journey. I was just really sensitive to it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1811 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:41 pm

center is here. convection building but not towards the center. still up in the air if a new one forms with this deep convection or the current one does a cyclonic loop ..

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1812 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:44 pm

Aric, I have the center about 1\2 a degree east of your center similar to best track

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1813 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:46 pm

That's where the 850 mb vorticity is maxed out too.

Hurricaneman wrote:Aric, I have the center about 1\2 a degree east of your center similar to best track

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1814 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:47 pm

If we can't get storms over the center, we want to see them to the west. At least want the lows moving towards the pressure falls.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1815 Postby TheHook210 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:51 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Quick observation from Port St. Lucie, Florida...been in an NE to E flow all day. Storms have threatened and tonight they have arrived. My weather station is recording a rain rate of 1.28in/h right now. Winds have been steady out of the East at 5.0 MPH with gusts to 15.0. It's like we have a funnel overhead right now. Sporadic lightning and very loud thunder.


Same here near Cocoa Beach although most of our wind/rain was this morning. I was wondering if it was coming from ex Fiona.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1816 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:51 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:That's where the 850 mb vorticity is maxed out too.

Hurricaneman wrote:Aric, I have the center about 1\2 a degree east of your center similar to best track

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its within my circle not exactly centered. :) i sometimes do that to show curvature of the bands with the circle around the center. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1817 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:54 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
abajan wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... :double: I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

I'm guessing the passengers have hardly noticed anything, due to both the ship's size and its stabilizers. But I could be wrong.


They were right under the heaviest Thunderstorm, they may not have noticed the waves but the rain and lighting for sure.

Yes, there's quite a bit of thunderstorm activity in the area: https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=nl# ... dl=2;dc=0;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1818 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:54 pm

TheHook210 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Quick observation from Port St. Lucie, Florida...been in an NE to E flow all day. Storms have threatened and tonight they have arrived. My weather station is recording a rain rate of 1.28in/h right now. Winds have been steady out of the East at 5.0 MPH with gusts to 15.0. It's like we have a funnel overhead right now. Sporadic lightning and very loud thunder.


Same here near Cocoa Beach although most of our wind/rain was this morning. I was wondering if it was coming from ex Fiona.

im from satellite beach :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1819 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:54 pm

it look like shear not drop as plan and dry air still round it a bit longer take get together better for fl because wont chance be hurr maybe strong ts of 60mph i want see how look by thur that when nhc will look into issuing ts watch for florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1820 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:54 pm

It's getting there. I would give it another 24-36 hours to get out of this zone of 35-40 knots of shear and it will ramp up quickly. Hope those folks down there are taking this threat seriously. They won't have much time to prepare for this one.

Aric Dunn wrote:
its within my circle not exactly centered. :) i sometimes do that to show curvature the bands with the circle around the center. :)
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