ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I live in Fl. I'm wondering, when we will know for sure where it's going and what intensity it will be? I'm getting annoyed and getting to the point of stop preparing for it

That is a terrible way to think about it. You SHOULD always prepare even if it doesn't look like anything right now.

This is how it is still. we know a lot but still cannot calculate all the variables. we are at the mercy of our own ignorance. hence always be prepared. being on this forum is a great start. knowledge ... true knowledge( disregarding most media outlets) will quell your fears..

[LoveWeather12]

Thank you all. We haven't been hit for over 10 years. And we went through the same thing with Erika last year. When they say a storm is coming, I try to preserve but then I think nothing will happen. I'm just going to have to wait and see I guess.

[chaser1]

I live in Fl. I'm wondering, when we will know for sure where it's going and what intensity it will be? I'm getting annoyed and getting to the point of stop preparing for it

A) Once it actually becomes an entity (such as classified as at least a tropical depression) so models can then latch onto and better predict based on having a true center of circulation

or

B) Once the poor miserable undeveloped mess finally slinks past 90W, and onward to its next destination where it can then antagonize those good folks there into wondering if it really will ever pose a risk to them or not.

To tell you the truth, I already have canned goods, extra water, power, lighting, yard fairly tidy, and a protection plan for my home and cars in place. I have family in Kendall and also in Pembroke Pines that I'd have to run down and help, not to mention friends with properties and a boat in the Keys as well. Oh, and I chase these storms too. But, take it for what its worth, I'm not worrying about getting out of bed by 7:00am so I can rush out and fill my gas tanks, get money from the ATM, or begin messaging friends and family to exchange evac. plans or alternate contact persons. I'll probably put that off for at least a day. On the other hand if you dont own a single candle, have few or no food, fire, or water supplies whatsoever? Then I'd probably start working on some of that stuff - last month

[chaser1]

So I just noticed. MSNbot is viewing the forum lol. Does MSNbot every have anything to say?

[Blinhart]

So I just noticed. MSNbot is viewing the forum lol. Does MSNbot every have anything to say?

Hey it's normally the Bing Bot

[southerngale]

So I just noticed. MSNbot is viewing the forum lol. Does MSNbot every have anything to say?

No. The Google bot, Yahoo bot, Bing bot, MSNbot, and a few others frequent the forum, but are always suspiciously silent.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[Blinhart]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

still at 50/80.

[psyclone]

The Euro is hanging tough on that eastern solution...I expected a bump west.

[Bocadude85]

The Euro is hanging tough on that eastern solution...I expected a bump west.

It's also sticking to its guns on showing a strengthening storm coming into SFla. Euro vs GFS will be interesting to see which one comes out on top.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768651281548316672

[AutoPenalti]

Last image before bedtime.

[CourierPR]

Am I imagining it, or is 99L starting to look better on satellite?

[Hurrilurker]

Am I imagining it, or is 99L starting to look better on satellite?

It is. But it did the same thing overnight last night, then fell apart again during the day. So I'm not convinced it means much yet.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Am I imagining it, or is 99L starting to look better on satellite?

It is. But it did the same thing overnight last night, then fell apart again during the day. So I'm not convinced it means much yet.

99 seems to be a nightowl does its best work in the middle of the night lol

[Frank2]

The WV shows the high north of FL sagging south as 99 continues slowly west, while the ULL NE of 99 is probably increasing 99 outflow (and the current flare)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[jlauderdal]

The WV shows the high north of FL sagging south as 99 continues slowly west, while the ULL NE of 99 is probably increasing 99 outflow (and the current flare)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Bernie rayno mentioned this scenarion on his wed video

[Frank2]

Not very favorable for development as it keeps it over the larger islands - not a hint of a circulation thus morning, unlike 24 hr ago...

[chaser1]

While that outflow channel is creating some impressive ventilation, its still seems clear that its getting suppressed on its north side. Frank, while this supressed appearance occuring along the northern quadrant of the LLC might be imparted by the blocking mid level ridge to its north, would'nt you guess that the same stacked upper level anticyclone might also be and continue to infringe some form of northerly shear as well?

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768651281548316672

Boy, you see those west winds south of the D.R.?? Unless those were solely land induced, how can't one make the case that some low level circulation exists over the E. part of Hispaniola?

[chaser1]

The WV shows the high north of FL sagging south as 99 continues slowly west, while the ULL NE of 99 is probably increasing 99 outflow (and the current flare)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I see this as possibly making the case for the GFS "sloppy solution" rather than one where the Euro seems to isolate, maintain, and move the core of this system into what would appear to be an even greater sheared environment. I'm beginning to think what will occur is some reasonable compromise solution involving a T.D. forming in the Florida straits that quickly deepens while very slowly moving toward some point between the west Fl. Panhandle and E. Louisiana. If that occured, perhaps sustained T.S. conditions would occur over the Keys with squalls and gusts to T.S. strength in the more southernmost counties. Greatest threat would apply to whereever its second landfall eventually occurs.