ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Wasn't talking about your post was actually replying to what I edited and quoted. And I meant no model support for a strong system. Not worried about a depression or minimal storm

I do think that if it could become a "minimal storm" with convection over an organized center, then it could intensify very rapidly in the Gulf, which is why we can't just ignore it even with a 20% or 30% development potential.

[Steve820]

Well guys, it has been a really long time since I last posted on this great forum. Welcome me back! 99L currently looks extremely disorganized, and I doubt it will be able to develop until the weekend at least. It is funny how exposed the circulation is. The upper-level winds are forecast to die down over the next few days and we may possibly see 8-L by Monday. My forecast peak here is a tropical storm. It does not seem like models do much with it, but the Gulf waters are flat out warm, so we cannot rule out a Gulf hurricane.

[AJC3]

OK folks, the back and forth between the "It's dead"-ers and the "It's not dead yet"-ers is getting to be a bit much. Let's not beat a dead (pun intended) horse (or in this case, Invest).

Keep it civil, and let's not rehash the same thing over and over again.

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/768968540099608576

[ROCK]

Blob of tiny convection near the naked swirl?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

yep saw that just now.....spit out a "HOT TOWER" right over the swirl which is moving almost west now...

[sunnyday]

A few days ago, I asked if anyone else was hearing the fat lady sing because nothing seemed right about 99L as far as potential development. Did any of you have a feeling before today that this would end before it ever really began?

[sunnyday]

In reference to my previous post, I, of course, have no meteorological background, but I just never saw any potential for 99L.

[AdamFirst]

OK folks, the back and forth between the "It's dead"-ers and the "It's not dead yet"-ers is getting to be a bit much. Let's not beat a dead (pun intended) horse (or in this case, Invest).

Keep it civil, and let's not rehash the same thing over and over again.

What do you think about it? I value the opinions of all our pro Mets.

[psyclone]

Just as an aside yesterday we had a tornado outbreak in Indiana and Ohio that took everyone by surprise. The weather can do crazy things. That's why the pros paint in probabilities and avoid absolutes. It's a humble acknowledgment that we don't know everything. In peak cane season you don't turn your back on the tropics.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track. As long they do these is alive.

Location: 21.5°N 73.7°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[SFLcane]

What happened to the favorable conditions waiting in the Bahamas?? Lol

[AJC3]

What do you think about it? I value the opinions of all our pro Mets.

Minimal chance of development in the short term. Perhaps it can take advantage of better conditions late this weekend and beyond, but that would have to occur on the Gulf side, obviously.
As far as Florida is concerned, it looks like mainly a slight increase in the low level northeast to easterly winds, and a better chance for passing showers/storms and a few squalls for south FL and the Keys. Nothing to have angst over, just keep tabs on it.

I think Levi had a great take on it.

[Hurrilurker]

99L: The Little Engine That Couldn't

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

What happened to the favorable conditions waiting in the Bahamas?? Lol

The island region apparently is in an old habits die hard pattern and wants to keep the high shear its had from the past two el ninos

[rolltide]

What happened to the favorable conditions waiting in the Bahamas?? Lol

Sheer forecasting has to improve. Just yesterday the forecast was for very light sheer once it got to the Bahamas.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

None of the models ever developed this till Sunday. So all you guys writing it's obituary would be advised to wait awhile longer

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What happened to the favorable conditions waiting in the Bahamas?? Lol

They vanished years ago

[sphelps8681]

None of the models ever developed this till Sunday. So all you guys writing it's obituary would be advised to wait awhile longer

It is really getting old. Some want to learn why the models are doing what they are doing but not because it effects where we live, but that is also the reason. But because we want to know how and why the things happen. This board is suppose to be informative as well as a learning experience but not based on where you live all the time.

[deltadog03]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.

[hohnywx]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.

Hey deltadog...is your forecast in kts or mph?