ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Frank2]

Models are having a hard time - in this loop, most of 99's energy is in the Caribbean moving west, with residual showers on the Atlantic side: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[tolakram]

animation of the 0z euro run

[tolakram]

Animation of the 6z GFS

[caneman]

Thats almost an Elena type run with the GFS, not buying it since that landfall is 8 days out but just for spits and giggles... how strong would that be if it did landfall around Cedar Key?

[STRiZZY]

how strong would that be if it did landfall around Cedar Key?

1010mb on the 6z run.

[BobHarlem]

GFS/HWRF now predicting a long sit and spin in the Gulf, with the HWRF bringing up a major cane before the end of its run, and the GFS brining it in north of Tampa as a Tropical storm next Friday.... If anything close to this happens it will drive folks crazy waiting. I'm sure a few folks at the NHC just would like this to die out now.

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF model just doesn't give up... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205 That is definitely a strong system sitting to the south of the Florida panhandle. 942mb on last panel.

[tolakram]

6z HWRF animation (starts at 48 hours)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/769146061009088512

[hohnywx]

I do think people laugh off the HWRF a little too much. It's gotten pretty good. For example, here's the intensity error from 2015 between the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and NHC.

Just to bump this again...the HWRF has gotten better as of late. It is just behind the GFS in terms of verification.

[TropicalSailor]

6z HWRF animation (starts at 48 hours)
[img ]http://i.imgur.com/cTH3Lqu.gif[/img]

Yea that run doesn't look pretty

[BigB0882]

It appears movement during the last few frames is taking a much more N turn. Is the HWRF headed to the Panhandle on that run? It would be a shift East.

[terrapintransit]

That is looking alot like Ivan's cousin

6z HWRF animation (starts at 48 hours)
[img ]http://i.imgur.com/cTH3Lqu.gif[/img]

Yea that run doesn't look pretty

[LarryWx]

I do think people laugh off the HWRF a little too much. It's gotten pretty good. For example, here's the intensity error from 2015 between the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and NHC.

Just to bump this again...the HWRF has gotten better as of late. It is just behind the GFS in terms of verification.

Note that the Euro is in last place of these 3 models in terms of intensity. It just hasn't been too good on intensity since 2010.

[SouthFLTropics]

It's the NAM so take it for what it's worth...but 36 hour vorticity increasing and further north.

[Bocadude85]

It's the NAM so take it for what it's worth...but 36 hour vorticity increasing and further north.

Nam looks to show maybe a weak TS in S.Fla in 45 hours and then crossing the state and emerging into the SE GOM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2016082612&fh=45&xpos=0&ypos=265

[Blown Away]

12z Model Guidance... Big E shift...


06z Model Guidance...

[Stormcenter]

Back and forth, back and forth.......just wait and see.

[BucMan2]

They key is the models are only good if there is an actual storm which may be on verge of beginning

[BucMan2]

Next Model Analysis 12Z should be interesting as there seems to be a shift back east assuming some thing is there to shift back-