ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Steve]

HWRF thru 96 hours is wiping out Tampa Bay with a 943mb hurricane....

Expect it to drop into the 930's by landfall which is probably 6-12 hours farther out than 96h where it's currently at on TTbits

Edit - I was wrong. 948 on that resolution straight into the bay and southern tip of Pinellas Co at 99 hours which would be Wed at around 5:00pm EDT and obviously catastrophic.

[tolakram]

HWRF is such a troll.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/wIKEgwo.png[img]

It is. But also points how scary it would be if the environment was conducive.

I think the models are sniffing out more favorable conditions but intensity is unknown, and the HWRF has only show skill once a storm forms. It jus tkills me how in early runs the HWRF tends to blowup storms and then seek out the most populated city and make a beeline for it.

[tolakram]

948 directly into the bay.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF is such a troll.

however its been the only one showing the environment being conducive nearly the entire time minus a couple runs all the others have been all over the place. but most of them now show a much much better environment. the HWRF may be over doing the intensity but the underlying reasoning seems to be what the other models are now picking up on.

[Emmett_Brown]

HWRF hits WCFL 3 straight runs.

[ronjon]

Gotta say that HWRF run is pure fantasy but I can't predict the future any better than anyone else. Obviously would be the worst possible outcome for Tampa - probably push 15 feet of water into the downtown area.

[CrazyC83]

HWRF thru 96 hours is wiping out Tampa Bay with a 943mb hurricane....

That would likely be about 125 kt given what would be a fairly small size.

[Nimbus]

HWRF hits WCFL 3 straight runs.

I think what it is modeling is a Charley scenario where an upper level low or 91L remnants create a weakness. NHC has a hard time forecasting those type events because there are too many random elements that come into play. Its a valid scenario to model and the HWRF is high resolution so maybe they are just playing the "bad storm" role?

[bamajammer4eva]

18z Intensity models most show some sort of development it appears now 10 ts or higher to 5 that show zip

[stormhunter7]

00z Models are locking onto the NE GOM, it appears.

[stormhunter7]

[Steve]

That's a trip. It's midweek if they are right, and who knows about that? It will be cool to watch the upper patterns. There's probably a limited window to get out, and it's a sharp curve, so it's in the realm of possibility. After that ridgIng builds back in.

[stormlover2013]

Lol models have no clue till something develops when we think they have a clue then they do a 360 turn

[stormwise]

HWRF is such a troll.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/wIKEgwo.png[img]

It is. But also points how scary it would be if the environment was conducive.

Kingarabian interesting comment i see one reason why the environment would not suit a RI in the GOM but its not in that general region. Can you elaborate some more why you think it will not be conductive.

[Siker]

Lol models have no clue till something develops when we think they have a clue then they do a 360 turn

360 degrees isn't a turn .

[Jag95]

Charley took a similar track but he was being influenced by an abnormally strong cold front for the month of August.

[gatorcane]

00z NAM has a broad low coming ashore SW Florida

[stormwise]

Quite a big change in the track, the system (if any) hooks as per the model. 80kts/10mins is v/ strong if this is to happen.


[imghttps://s14.postimg.org/l81bgbxj5/genswrf_grid_1wind10m_101.png][/img]


GEFS-WRF ens courtesy Dr. Stephen Masters.

[SeGaBob]

Watch GFS and EURO drop development after getting everyone excited.

[SeGaBob]

0z GFS seems similar through 78 hours