Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[SFLcane]

That's ridiculous nearly at 20N its bound to recurve.

[cycloneye]

Passes 50W.

[WeatherEmperor]

99L is stuck near Fl/Ga for nearly 2 days. Could create the weakness for this wave to start turning north soon




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[RL3AO]

Models (climate, global, and forecasts) are consistently building in a ridge on the east coast during week two. With the 0Z GFS, I'm not sure what is there to recurve it.

[SFLcane]

Insane that it gets to near PR from Africa at that latitude.

[cycloneye]

The question is what effects has 99L at this point.

[SFLcane]

Models (climate, global, and forecasts) are consistently building in a ridge on the east coast during week two. With the 0Z GFS, I'm not sure what is there to recurve it.

99L

[RL3AO]

Insane that it gets to near PR from Africa at that latitude.

Yep, but the large scale environment supports it happening. A strong N ATL trough + Gaston will support an intensifying ridge downstream, which just happens to be right where this wave is gonna form.

[cycloneye]

There is always a first SFLcane

[WeatherEmperor]

Models (climate, global, and forecasts) are consistently building in a ridge on the east coast during week two. With the 0Z GFS, I'm not sure what is there to recurve it.

99L

Exactly. This is why the wave turned north on the 18z run


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[RL3AO]

Models (climate, global, and forecasts) are consistently building in a ridge on the east coast during week two. With the 0Z GFS, I'm not sure what is there to recurve it.

99L

Yes, but synoptic and global scale 500 mb forecasts are very skillful through 5 days and skillful through 8 days. I have a lot more trust in them being right about the ridging than I am them handling mesoscale processes that impacted 99L (plus land)

[cycloneye]

Almost near the Leewards.

[chaser1]

Siker, I fully agree with your point but then if I were writing the TWO and realized that (as an example) a tropical wave would take "4 days" to reach the coast, that there'd be little reason for me to more than mention it and perhaps tag it with a 10% or 20% chance of development. That's basically because I know it wont develop over land and how great could the chances be of it developing in that final 24 hours of the present 5 day outlook?

It's really just about model output at that point weighted against climatology. For 25L, our three most reliable cyclogenesis models (Euro, UKMET, GFS) all show it developing within a 5 day period, but it's still only two days of available time over water.

I think we're on the same page.

Of course

It'll be interesting to actually see if this Pouch will finally live up to the models (intensity wise). Gaston looked like it was going to be some highlight of a storm, but just never quite lived up to its potential. I'm beginning to think that the MJO after all might be playing a larger role in the Atlantic's underperformance

[SFLcane]

Should make for some beautiful satellite eye candy.

[SFLcane]

Luis!

[cycloneye]

Stronger than 12z run.

[SFLcane]

99L should great a weakness there we shall see

[WeatherEmperor]

Watch out PR omg!!




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[cycloneye]

Luis!

Is really worrisom.

[LarryWx]

Yep, 99L could end up saving the CONUS from a hit from Pouch 25L if it were to linger long enough near the SE US via a weakness associated with it causing it to recurve. I'm not yet sure if that will happen on this 0Z GFS run, however.